The Dollar Index looks stable above 104 but failure to break past 104.5 can bring it down eventually. On the other hand, the Euro is expected to test the support around 1.08 before bouncing back. USDJPY and EURJPY are declining as expected. Aussie and Pound remain flat. USDCNY seems to be holding well below the resistance at 7.23. USDINR rose to 83.45 yesterday as expected and may now remain stable below its resistance of 83.50 with downside limited to 83.25/20. EURINR is inching down towards 90 and overall, a broad range of 89-91 may hold for some time. Important to watch would be the US GDP data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.344) has sustained well above 104 over the last 3-sessions but is unable to break past 104.5 on the upside. An immediate range of 104.50-104 may hold for a couple of sessions with possible extensions to 105 and 103 on a break of the range on either side.

EURUSD (1.0821) is nearing support at 1.08, which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back towards 1.09/1.0950 in the near term. Failure to sustain above 1.08, can extend the fall further towards 1.0750 before showing a medium-term reversal.

EURJPY (163.73) and Dollar-Yen (151.32) are stable above 163 and 151 respectively and could trade between 163-164.50 and 151-152 for the very near term. USDJPY needs to necessarily break past 152 to signal a fresh rally for the medium term towards 154.

USDCNY (7.2260) tested 7.2289 before coming off from there. The pair could fall towards 7.21/20 while below 7.23.

Aussie (0.6535) and Pound (1.2629) remained flat, while we keep our view intact of both currencies holding above respective supports near 0.65 and 1.26/2580 to bounce back in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.3775) opened around 83.32 and rose sharply towards 83.45 on the upside in line with our expectations. We expect the pair to remain stable below its resistance of 83.50 with the downside limited to 83.25/20.

EURINR (90.2004) is gradually coming down towards 90. An immediate range of 90-90.50 and broad range of 91-89 may hold for now.

The US Treasury tumbled after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller commented in a speech yesterday that rates need to be higher for longer than expected and need to see more inflation progress before supporting a rate cut. Although he sees an easing cycle in 2024, he suggests the need to see back-to-back months of inflation data heading towards 2%. German yields have dipped slightly. The 10Yr and the 5Yr GOI look bearish below 7.10% and 7.12% respectively.

The US 10Yr (4.218%) and the 30Yr (4.364%) yields fell post comments from FED Governor Waller. It is crucial to see if the yields continue to dip below 4.20% and 4.35% respectively which would negate upside chances of 4.4% and 4.6%. Watch price action near 4.20% and 4.35% on the US 10Yr and 30Yr yields respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.295%) has dipped slightly breaking below mentioned support at 2.30% while the 30Yr (2.455%) yield has fallen more but sustains above 2.4%. The 10Yr will have to bounce back immediately to head towards 2.6% while we have to watch price action near 2.40% on the 30Yr yield. The 30yr would remain bullish towards 2.7%-2.8% only above 2.40%. Deeper supports are seen near 2.2% and 2.35% on the 10Yr and 30yr yields respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0694%) is stuck between 7.04% and 7.1% and unless a sustained rise above 7.1% is seen, the fall to 7%-6.9% cannot be avoided. 7.10% seems to be an immediate but strong resistance just now which needs a decisive break to turn bullish.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0898%) fell yesterday and while below 7.12%, there is scope for a fall towards 7.06% in the next few sessions.

Strong recovery is seen in Dow Jones. Nifty may also break above 22250 and rise further taking cues from Dow Jones. DAX is currently testing its key resistance which is expected to hold and produces a fall back. Nikkei have fallen back and looks likely to come down towards its immediate support before a bounce can happen. Shanghai is attempting to break below its support and looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term.

Dow (39760.09, +1.22%) has bounced sharply after 3 consecutive fall. It can extend the bounce further to 40000-40200 or even 40500 before a corrective dip can be seen.

DAX (18477.09, +0.50%) tested 18511 and closed just below 18500, which is a crucial resistance. While 18500 holds, a corrective fall towards 18200 can be seen.

Nifty (22123.65, +0.54%) has risen towards the upper end of the 21700-22250 range. It might break on the upside and rise towards 22500 taking cues from Dow Jones.

Nikkei (40320.50, -1.15%) has fallen back after failing to rise past 41000. It may see a test of 39500 on the downside first before moving up towards 41000-42000.

Shanghai (3006.39, +0.44%) is attempting to break below 3000. This has negated the chances of seeing a bounce towards 3050-3100. A fall towards 2950 looks possible now.

Brent has recovered but needs to rise past $ 86-87 to target further upside; else a fall back can be seen. WTI is likely to trade within $ 84-80 for some time. Gold has scope to test its key resistance before a corrective fall can be seen. Silver and Copper have bounced a little but could face resistance ahead at 25.00 and 4.05, respectively. Natural Gas might bounce back if the support at 1.70-1.68 holds.

Brent ($ 85.91) has recovered after testing a low of $ 84.58. It has to surpass $ 86-87 to move up towards $ 89. Else a fall towards $ 84-83 cannot be ruled out.

WTI ($ 81.89) has bounced from a low of $ 80.56 but has key resistance overhead at $ 83-84. While that holds, we can expect a range of $ 84-80 to hold for some time.

Gold (2211.80) has moved up towards the upper end of the 2150-2225 range. Within this, immediate support is seen at 2185. While that holds, Gold may break above 2225 and see a test of 2230-2240 before a corrective dip can be seen.

Silver (24.74) has recovered a bit from a low of 24.45. Resistance is at 25. While that holds, chances of fall towards 24.00 will remain there.

Copper (4.0150) has bounced a bit from 3.9675. Immediate resistance is seen at 4.05. It has to surpass 4.05 to ease the downside pressure. Else a dip towards 3.95-3.93 cannot be ruled out.

Natural Gas (1.7180) has fallen towards 1.70 as expected. If 1.70-1.68 holds a bounce back towards 1.9 could be seen.

7:00 12:30 UK GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.3% …Previous -0.1%

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn 3.2% …Expected 3.2% …Previous 3.2%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.0%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 97.9 …Expected 96.3 …Previous 95.4 …Actual 96.3