The Dollar Index is headed towards 105.50 while the Euro has risen above 1.07 and could head towards 1.0750/1.08. EURJPY, Aussie and Pound have been rising well over the past few sessions and look bullish towards 166, 0.6550/0.66 and 1.2550/1.26 respectively. USDJPY trades below the immediate resistance at 155. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25 while above 7.24. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR may hold between 83.30-83.50. A break below 83.30, if seen and sustained can take it down to 83.20/10.

Dollar Index (105.629) fell sharply from yesterday’s high of 106.24 and is nearing the lower end of the 106.50-105.50 range mentioned yesterday. Thereafter, whether it falls further towards 105 or bounces back from 105.5 itself will have to be seen. Note that 105.00-105.50 is a near-term support zone.

EURUSD (1.0709) finally gave a break above its range of 1.06-1.07 and now if the rise sustains, it could get extended towards 1.075-1.08 soon. Overall, the view remains bullish above 1.065.

EURJPY (165.80) broke above the consolidation zone of 162-165 which has been holding over the past 1 month. The next crucial resistance is seen at 166 which if holds can produce a decline back towards 165/164 else a break above 166 can target higher resistance near 168 in the medium term. Watch price action at 166 over the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (154.79) is slowly inching up towards 155 as expected but a decisive break past it is needed to turn bullish towards 157-158 in the medium term. Failure to rise past 155 can drag it down eventually towards 154-153.

USDCNY (7.2443) has been inching up slowly as we retain our bullish view towards 7.25.

Aussie (0.6522) has risen well in the last 3-sessions and is headed towards interim resistance near 0.6550. Note that 0.6550 and 0.66 are resistances above current levels and could limit the upside for Aussie in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2459) has been rising well over the past 3-sessions and is headed towards resistance near 1.2550-1.26.

USDINR (83.3475) tested 83.28 yesterday but closed above 83.30 at 83.3475. The pair needs to necessarily fall below 83.30 to test 83.20/10 on the downside, else the range of 83.50-83.30 may hold in the near term.

EURINR (89.2115) is headed towards 89.50 but a MA resistance can be spotted around it which if held, can bring it back towards 88.50. Overall, a broad range of 88.50-89.50/90.00 may hold for a while.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to sustain above their immediate support and get a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid a fall going forward. It is a wait and watch situation now. The German yields have inched up. The range breakout is sustaining. While this remains intact, a further rise is possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. Though there is room to fall further, the broader trend is up. Supports are there to limit the downside and take the yields higher again.

The US 10Yr (4.60%) and the 30Yr (4.73%) yields continue to remain stable. Failure to sustain above 4.6% can drag the 10Yr down to 4.45% and will negate the rise to 4.75%-4.8%. The 30Yr on the other hand has to remain above 4.7% for a rise to 4.8% and avoid falling back to 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and the 30Yr (2.65%) yields have inched up slightly. While the 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.6% (30Yr) range breakout sustains, a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.75%-2.8% (30Yr) can be seen.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1643%) has come down further. 7.15% is likely to be tested. The uptrend can resume either from 7.15% itself or after an extended fall to 7.1% targeting 7.3% on the upside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1692%) has dipped below the first support at 7.18%. Next support is at 7.12%-7.10 which can be tested if a break below 7.16% happens. But while above 7.1%, the view will remain bullish for a rise to 7.3% and 7.4%.

Dow Jones can test 38700 on the upside. Thereafter we need to see if the rise extends further or turns lower from there. DAX and Nikkei have risen sharply above their resistance and while this break sustains, we can expect further upside in the near term. Nifty sustains higher but seems to lack strength. Might attempt to break above 22500 taking cues from global equities. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3100-3000 for a while.

Dow (38503.69, +0.69%) is heading up towards 38700 as expected. The price action in the 38700-38800 region will need a close watch to see if the rise is extending or a reversal is happening.

DAX (18137.65, +1.55%) has surged above 18000. While it sustains above 17800 now, a further rise to 18400 and higher is possible. The fall to 17400 that we have been expecting is not happening.

Nifty (22368.00, +0.14%) sustains higher but seems to lack strength. We repeat, a decisive break above 22500 is needed for a strong rise to 23000 and avoid falling back to 21500-21300.

Nikkei (38324.00, +2.03%) has risen sharply above 38000. While this break sustains, it can target 39000. The chances of fall towards 36600-36000 has reduced now.

Shanghai (3035.36, +0.44%) can remain ranged within 3100-3000 for a while. As long as it holds above 3000-2950, chance are there that it may break above 3100 and rise towards 3150-3200.

Brent can rise towards its upper end of the range. WTI has risen towards $ 84. A break above it, if seen, can target $ 86. Gold and Silver has bounced but could face resistance at 2370-2380 and 28 respectively. Copper might trade within 4.35-4.50 for a while. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while with a bullish view.

Brent ($ 88.39) has risen towards $ 89. It may rise further towards $ 90, the upper end of the $ 85-90 range.

WTI ($ 83.33) has risen sharply towards the upper end of the $ 84-80 range. A break above $ 84, if seen, can extend the rise towards $ 86.

Gold (2332.90) has bounced after testing 2308 but could face resistance at 2370-2380. While below these, a fall back towards 2300 or even 2270-2250 could be seen.

Silver (27.27) bounced back from a low of 26.72. We had expected a fall towards 26.50-26.30. Resistance is at 28 and support at 26.50. While 28 holds, we can expect a range of 28-26.50 to persist for some time.

Copper (4.44) has risen back a bit after testing 4.3860. Support is now at 4.39-4.35. While above these, we can expect a range of 4.35-4.50 to hold for some time.

Natural Gas (1.8140) has risen above 1.8. A further rise towards 1.90-1.95 looks possible. Overall a broad sideways range of 1.50-2.00 is expected to hold for a while.

1:30 07:00 AU CPI
Expn 3.9% …Expected 3.4% …Previous 4.1%

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86.6 …Expected 88.9 …Previous 87.8

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 87.5 …Expected – …Previous 88.1

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 85.0 …Expected – …Previous 87.5

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.3% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 1.4%

Data Yesterday
…………
8:00 13:30 EU Flash PMI
Expn – …Expected 46.5 …Previous 46.1 …Actual 45.6

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 664K …Expected 668K …Previous 637K …Actual 693K