The Dollar Index looks stable within its 106.5-105.5 range, while Euro may test 1.0750 before falling back into the range of 1.06-1.07. EURJPY looks bullish while above 166. Aussie has fallen a bit and could test the support at 0.6450/64 before attempting to rise back. Pound has been rising well over the past few sessions and looks bullish towards 1.2550/1.26. USDJPY has broken above 155 and if sustained can extend its rise towards 158 in the medium term. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25 while above 7.24. EURINR may remain ranged within 88.50-89.50/90 region. USDINR could remain within 83.40-83.20 range for a while.

Dollar Index (105.76) looks stable above the lower end if its 106.50-105.50/105 range and it could persist for a while unless a decisive break on the either side of the range is seen.

EURUSD (1.0707) could test 1.0750 before falling back within the earlier range of 1.06-1.07.

EURJPY (166.38) has broken above our mentioned target and crucial resistance at 166 and now a sustained rise if seen in the coming sessions can take the pair towards upper resistance at 168. Else, if the resistance holds; it can produce a decline towards 165/164. Watch price action at 166-168 over the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (155.38) has broken above 155 and if the rise sustains, it can head towards 157-158 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2457) has been inching up slowly as we retain our bullish view towards 7.25.

Aussie (0.6506) held below the expected resistance at 0.6550. Immediate support can be seen at 0.6450-0.64. A range of 0.6550-0.64 can hold for the near term.

Pound (1.2462) is headed towards resistance near 1.2550-1.26.

USDINR (83.3275) made a low of 83.26 before it recovered from there. Resistance is seen at 83.40. While that holds, we can expect a range of 83.40-83.20 to persist for some time.

EURINR (89.1988) did not rise to 83.50 and instead it dipped from 89.28 itself. Overall, a broad range of 88.50-89.50/90.00 may hold for a while.

The US Treasury yields are getting a follow-through rise. While this sustains, there is room to rise more from here. The US PCE data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields have come up to the expected levels much faster than anticipated. The price action in the coming days will need a watch to see if the rise is extending beyond the mentioned levels or not. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced back. The broader view remains bullish. Supports are there to limit the downside in case of any intermediate dips.

The US 10Yr (4.64%) and the 30Yr (4.77%) yields have moved up. While above 4.6%, the 10Yr can rise to 4.75%-4.8%. The 30Yr can test 4.8% and the price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the rise is extending up to 4.9% and higher. For now there is no danger of falling back to 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr)

The German 10Yr (2.59%) and the 30Yr (2.73%) yields have surged. The rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.75%-2.8% (30Yr) is happening much faster than expected. Need to watch the price action at the above-mentioned levels to see what is happening next.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1852%) has bounced back. The broader trend is up. Supports are at 7.15% and 7.1% while above which the bullish view will be intact to see 7.3% on the upside.

Similarly, the 5Yr GOI (7.1927%) has immediate support at 7.12% and then a strong support at 7.12%-7.1%. While above these supports, a rise to 7.3% and 7.4% can be seen in the coming weeks.

Most of the Equities have dipped expect Nifty and Shanghai. Dow Jones, Dax and Nifty needs to rise past the resistance overhead for increased bullishness. Nikkei has fallen back but has immediate support at 37600-37500 region, which if holds, can lead to a bounce back. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3000-3100 for a while.

Dow (38460.92, -0.11%) has dipped slightly. As mentioned yesterday, 38700-38800 is an important resistance zone which has to be broken to see an extended rise to 39200 and higher. Else, the index can fall back to 38200-38000 and lower.

DAX (18088.70, -0.27%) has come down, failing to breach 18200 decisively. Failure to bounce back from here can take it down to 17800. A break above 18200 is needed to move up to 18400 and higher. It is a wait and watch situation.

Nifty (22402.40, +0.15%) remains higher but stable. We reiterate that a decisive break above 22500 is needed to see 23000 on the upside. Supports are a 22,250 and 22,000.

Nikkei (37782.50, -1.76%) has fallen back sharply after testing 38460 yesterday. Immediate support is seen at 37600-37500 region. While that holds, a rise to 39000 is still possible.

Shanghai (3049.79, +0.16%) sustains above 3000. The 3000-3100 sideways range will hold for a while. Broader picture remains intact to see a break above the upper end of the range and rise towards 3150-3200. Support is at 3000-2950.

Crude prices looks range bound for the near term. Gold can fall if it remains below 2370. Silver and Copper is likely to ranged for a while. Natural Gas has fallen back but downside could be limited to 1.90-1.80.

Brent ($ 88.03) couldn’t rise towards $ 90 as expected. Instead it fell back from $ 89. It can remain ranged within $ 85-90 for a while.

WTI ($ 82.81) is holding well below the resistance at $ 84. This keeps the $ 84-80 range intact. A decisive break above $ 84 is needed to move up towards $ 86.

Gold (2331.60) lacks strength to rise past 2350. Resistance is at 2370. While below 2370, a fall back towards 2300 or even 2270-2250 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (27.30) is stuck in a narrow range of 27-27.50. We expect a broad range of 28-26.50 to persist for some time.

Copper (4.4725) has moved up towards the upper end of 4.35-4.50 range. A break above 4.50 is needed to become bullish towards 4.60. Else it may continue to trade within the mentioned range for a while.

Natural Gas (1.9790) rose sharply to 2.1330 due to contract change yesterday but has fallen sharply from there. Support is 1.90-1.80. While that holds, a bounce towards 2.1-2.2 can be seen.

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn 3.4% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 3.4%

Data Yesterday
…………
1:30 07:00 AU CPI
Expn 3.9% …Expected 3.4% …Previous 4.1% …Actual 3.6%

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86.6 …Expected 88.9 …Previous 87.9 …Actual 89.4

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 87.5 …Expected – …Previous 88.1 …Actual 88.9

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 85.0 …Expected – …Previous 87.7 …Actual 89.9

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.3% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 0.7% …Actual 2.6%