The Dollar Index can see near-term trade within 106.20-105.40 while Euro can test support at 1.0675/0650 before bouncing back from there. EURJPY and USDJPY have seen a strong fluctuation within a very broad range and lack directional clarity just now. While below 171.50 and 160.50, both pairs can remain ranged within 171.50-166 and 160.50-154 region respectively. Aussie and Pound have dipped slightly and can fall while below 0.66 and 1.26 respectively. USDCNY has recovered from the sharp fall seen yesterday and can now head towards 7.25. EURINR may remain ranged within 89.60-89.00 region. USDINR rose sharply towards 83.50 yesterday. If it falls from 83.50, it can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 else a sharp break above 83.50 will be strongly bullish towards 83.60/70 or even higher.

Dollar Index (105.82) is moving up within the broad 106.50-105 region with a possible test of 106.20 to be seen over the next 2-sessions. The immediate range of 106.20-105.40 may hold for a while.

EURUSD (1.0703) tested 1.0733 yesterday but has fallen back to 1.07 now. A break below 1.07, if sustains can drag it lower towards 1.0675/0650 again in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (156.74) faced strong selling pressure near 160.20 from where it came down to 154.51 before closing at 156.30. The pair may attempt to rise back towards 158/159 while above 154. A broad range of 154-160 may hold for the near term.

EURJPY (167.65) also fluctuated within 171.58-165.64 in line with the movement seen in USDJPY. While above 166/167, a rise to 169/170 looks likely.

USDCNY (7.2422) fell sharply to 7.2313 yesterday but has recovered now, trading above 7.24. A rise to 7.25 is possible while above 7.23.

Aussie (0.6541) has declined from 0.6586 and could fall to 0.65 while below 0.66.

Pound (1.2548) has also dipped slightly and could be bearish while below 1.26. A fall toward 1.25 or lower looks likely in the near term.

USDINR (83.4750) broke above 83.40 contrary to our ranged view mentioned yesterday. If 83.50 holds, we can expect 83.50-83.30 to be the trading range for this week. Otherwise, a decisive break above 83.50, if seen, can take it higher towards 83.60/70 faster than expected, initiating a strong bullish sentiment.

EURINR (89.3420) is likely to trade within 89.60-89.00 for the next couple of sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down well extending the fall seen on Friday. Further fall is expected in the next few sessions within an overall medium-term uptrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are oscillating in a sideways range and could turn eventually bullish while above 7.15%. This could just be a consolidation within the overall uptrend.

The US 10Yr (4.605%) and the 30Yr (4.723%) yields have fallen further, extending the fall seen on Friday. The 10Yr yield can break below 4.6% to test 4.55/50% in the near term, negating our mentioned rise to 4.75%. The 30Yr on the other hand can dip to 4.70/68% while below 4.80%. Overall the yields could turn bearish for the near term while below 4.70% (10Yr) and 4.80% (30Yr) respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.526%) and the 30Yr (2.661%) yields have also fallen sharply contrary to our bullish expectations and can fall towards 2.50/40% and 2.60% respectively within an overall medium-term uptrend. Watch if a bounce is seen from 2.50% and 2.64% respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1971%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1971%) seem to be stuck within a range. As mentioned yesterday, there is lack of strong follow-through rise even though the overall trend is up. Both the 5Yr and 10Yr are stuck between 7.15% and 7.25%. The bias is bullish to see a rise eventually while above 7.15%.

Dow Jones and Nikkei are heading towards their immediate resistance which if holds can lead to a fall back. DAX is bullish while above 18000. Nifty and Shanghai look bullish to target their key resistance in the near term.

Dow (38386.10, +0.38%) is heading towards 38500. A break above it is needed to become bullish towards 39000. Else a fall back towards 37200-37000 cannot be ruled out.

DAX (18118.32, -0.24%) sustains above 18000 but lacks a follow through rise. It has potential to rise to 18400-18500 while above 18000.

Nifty (22643.40, +1.00%) has risen well above 22600 and can head towards 23000 in the near term. While 23000 holds, a fall back towards 22200-22000 might be seen.

Nikkei (38409.50, +1.25%) has risen well above 38000 and can test key resistance at 39000. If that holds, we can expect a range of 39000-37000 to persist for some time

Shanghai (3112.89, +0.17%) is bullish towards 3150-3200 while above 3000.

Crude prices and Precious Metals are likely to trade sideways for a while. Copper has scope to test key resistance at 4.8. Thereafter we need to see if it falls back or break higher. Natural Gas is bullish while above 1.90.

Brent ($ 87.07) and WTI ($ 82.49) to trade sideways within $ 90-85 and $ 85-80 range for some time.

Gold (2342.40) appears ranged within 2300-2370.

Silver (27.37) can stay range bound within 26.50/27.00-28.00 for some time.

Copper (4.6925) has risen towards 4.70 as expected. A test of key resistance at 4.8 looks likely. While that holds, a corrective dip can be seen towards 4.60. A decisive break above 4.8 is needed for increased bullishness towards 5.00-5.10.

Natural Gas (2.0660) has risen above 2.0 as the support at 1.9 held well and looks bullish towards 2.2-2.3 from here.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.5% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.6%

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.0%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
Expn 2.3% …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.4%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.6%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 6.5% …Expected 6.7% …Previous 6.6%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 107.3 …Expected 104.0 …Previous 104.7

Data Yesterday
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9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 96.2 …Actual 95.6