Dollar Index has fallen across major currencies after Fed kept the interest steady at 5.25%-5.50% and mentioned that they do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The Dollar Index, EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY are ranged within 106.50-105.50/105, 1.06/0650-1.0750, 168.169-166 & 154/152-160 respectively. Aussie can test 0.6580-0.66 on the upside before coming down towards 0.6450 on the downside, Pound below 1.26 looks bearish to 1.24 in the near term. USDCNY is closed today. EURINR may remain ranged within revised range of 88.50–89.50/90. USDINR can continue to trade within 83.50-83.30 for now. A sharp break above 83.50 will be strongly bullish towards 83.60/70 or even higher.

Dollar Index (105.74) rose sharply to test the upper end of its range of 106.50-105.50/105 before coming down. Overall, the Index could remain ranged for a while unless a decisive break on the either side of the it is seen.

EURUSD (1.0715) the pair observed a low of 1.0650 yesterday before recovering back to the previous levels. Currently it is moving within a range of 1.06/0650-1.0750 and it could hold for few more sessions before it eventually breaks higher to test 1.08 on the upside. A decisive break below 1.06 if seen, would negate the expected rise to 1.08.

Dollar-Yen (155.93) indeed the pair tested 158 on the upside as expected before slipping down. Currently it is reattempting to rise back towards 158 and 160 but overall, a broad range of 154/152-160 may hold for the near term.

EURJPY (167.12) tested 168.66 on the upside, slightly lower than our target of 169 on the upside. Going ahead, a resistance can be spotted around 168/169 which if held, can pull it down towards 166 and the expected range could hold for a while before breaking on the either side and giving some directional clarity in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2396) is closed today. Overall outlook remains bullish towards 7.25

Aussie (0.6532) The expected fall to 0.65 got exceeded as the pair tested 0.6465 on the downside before rising back. Going ahead, if the rise continues; a test to 0.6580-0.66 looks likely to happen before coming down towards 0.645 or lower in the medium term.

Pound (1.2535) has fell as expected and a resistance can be observed around 1.2550 which if held, can push the pair lower towards 1.24-1.2350 in the coming sessions. Overall, view remains bearish below 1.26.

USDINR (83.43) failed to sustain its rise past 83.50 and started to decline from 83.5250 itself. Currently, it looks stable within its range of 83.50-83.30, but a decisive break above 83.50 if seen, can take it higher towards 83.60/70 faster than expected, initiating a strong bullish sentiment.

EURINR (89.4110) has dipped slightly below our mentioned range of 89.60-89.00 and now a revised range of 88.50–89.50/90 could hold for the next couple of sessions.

The US Treasury yields fell post the FED policy meeting where it kept the rates unchanged and is not expected to cut rates before Dec-24. The German yields look mixed as the 10yr yield has dipped slightly while the 30yr yield has risen. However, the overall medium-term trend is Up. The Indian GOI yields (10yr and 5y) can trade within the broad 7.15-7.20/22% region.

The US 10Yr (4.622%) and the 30Yr (4.749%) have managed to hold above 4.60% and 4.72% respectively and have bounced back contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 4.55/50% and 4.70/68% mentioned earlier. We may expect the 10-year yield to trade within 4.60-4.70% region while the 30yr can trade between 4.70-4.80% region for the near term. Thereafter, a break on either side would give more clarity on further direction for the medium term. Overall medium-term trend remains up.

The German 10Yr (2.584%) has dipped slightly while the 30Yr (2.693%) yield has risen from levels seen yesterday. On the charts, the 10yr yield looks like it can rise a bit and stabilize in the near term while the 30yr yield looks bearish for a fall towards 2.60%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1855%) dipped sharply while the 5Yr GOI (7.1927%) remained almost stable with a slight dip. The 5yr yield may remain above 7.15% and trade within 7.15-7.20/22%region while the 10yr may have Moving Average support near 7.17% from where it can bounce back towards 7.22/25% in the next few sessions.

Dow Jones recovery fades on the expectation of FED keeping the interest rate higher for Longer. Dow Jones, Dax and Nikkei looks range bound for a while. Nifty has dipped but chances of rise towards 23000 cannot be ruled out before a corrective fall happens.

Dow (37903.30, +0.23%) came off from a high of 38349. It looks ranged within 38500-37500. Failure to rise past 38500 would be vulnerable to a break below 37500 and fall towards 37200-37000.

DAX (17932.17, -1.03%) has fallen contrary to our view for a rise to 18400-18500. It appears ranged within 18200-17800/17600.

Nifty (22604.85, -0.17%) fell back after testing 22783.35 on Tuesday. However, a rise to 23000 can still happen before a corrective fall can be seen towards 22200-22000.

Nikkei (38284.00, +0.09%) is coming off after testing a high of 38608.17 on Tuesday. We can expect it to trade sideways within 39000-37000 for a while.

Shanghai (3104.82, -0.26%) is closed till friday. Chances of rise towards 3150-3200 cannot be ruled out while it remains above 3000.

Crude prices have tumbled after Fed Chair Powell stated that “it will probably take longer than previously expected” for the bank to become sufficiently confident in the trajectory of inflation before beginning to lower interest rates. However, crude prices have near term supports coming up which if holds can provide some respite. Precious Metals remains ranged but have immediate resistance overhead which if holds can bearish in the coming sessions. Copper has fallen back but has support at 4.50 which if holds can keep it ranged within 4.50-4.70 for while. Natural Gas looks ranged between 1.85/1.90-2.10.

Brent ($ 83.74) has broken below the lower end of the $ 90-85 range. Immediate support is seen at $ 83-82. It has hold above $ 83-82 and rise past $ 84 to become bullish towards $ 87-88.

WTI ($ 79.35) has fallen below the lower end of $ 85-80 range. Supports are seen at $ 77.50-77-76 region, which could be tested before a bounce back can happen towards $ 82.

Gold (2332.60) remains ranged within 2300-2370. It has to rise past 2350-2370 to move up towards 2400. Else there could be chances of breaking below 2300 and fall towards 2250-2200.

Silver (27.37) trades within 28.00-26.50 range as expected. It has break above 27.50-28.00 to become bullish towards 29. Else it might break below 26.50 and fall towards 26.00.

Copper (4.5690) fell sharply to 4.5125 from 4.70 itself contrary to our view that it can rise further to 4.8. Support is at 4.50. While that holds, it may trade within 4.50-4.70 for a while with chances of extending the rise towards 4.80. Only a break lower, if seen, can drag the Copper down to 4.3.

Natural Gas (1.9490) falls back after facing rejections from 2.1. This is contrary to our view for a rise towards 2.2-2.3. As long as it holds above 1.90-1.85, chances of rise towards 2.2-2.3 cannot be ruled out. For now, a range of 1.85-2.1 can hold for some time.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 7.4 …Previous 7.3

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 60.5 …Expected 59.1 …Previous 59.1

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.5 …Expected – …Previous 1.0

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 46.1 …Expected 45.5 …Previous 45.2

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 45.6 …Previous 45.6

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected -69.3 …Previous -68.9

Data Yesterday
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18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.50% …Previous 5.50% ….Actual 5.50%