Dollar Index holds above 104 and could move up slowly to 105 while Euro may test 1.0850-1.0820 before reversing towards 1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 157/158 respectively while volatility remains low. USDCNY is unable to sustain its rise past 7.24 and has dipped slightly. Aussie has held the support of 0.6650 quite well but watch price action closely around current levels as to whether it bounces towards 0.6750 or not. Pound is gradually rising towards crucial resistance near 1.28. USDINR tested 83.25 as expected and could further extend its fall towards 83.20/15 before bouncing back towards 83.50/60 on the upside. EURINR is bearish while below 91.

Dollar Index (104.623) remained stable and is holding the support around 104.5 quite well. A strong break past 105 is still needed to make the outlook bullish towards 106-106.50 in the medium term. Till then, a very near term range of 104.50-105 may hold.

EURUSD (1.0858) is trading above an immediate support near 1.085 and either from there or after testing 1.0820-1.08 a bounce back towards 1.09 or higher can be seen in the medium term. Till then trade below 1.09 looks possible.

Dollar-Yen (156.30) and EURJPY (169.69) are slowly heading towards our targets of 157-158 and 170 respectively while volatility remains low for now. Our bullish view remains intact for the near term.

USDCNY (7.2380) tested 7.2418 yesterday but could not sustain and started to decline. There is still enough room on the charts to rise towards 7.25 but a decisive break past 7.24 will be needed for that. Failure to do so can bring it down to 7.22 in the coming sessions. Watch price action at 7.24.

Aussie (0.6670) has held the support around 0.6650 quite well. While above 0.6650, the view is bullish for a rise to 0.6750.

Pound (1.2717) is gradually rising towards our mentioned target of 1.28. Thereafter, a corrective fall towards 1.26/24 could be witnessed if the resistance at 1.28 holds in the medium term.

USDINR (83.31) tested 83.25 yesterday as expected. The fall might get extended towards 83.20/15 if the current momentum persists before a bounce back towards 83.50/60 is seen.

EURINR (90.4371) may head towards 90 while below 91.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. Unless they break above their immediate resistances, a further rise is not possible. While the resistances hold, the Treasury yields are likely to fall more from here. The German yields have dipped. But the broader bullish view remains intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have turned down from there resistances. They can dip to test their supports. A sideways consolidation is possible before a rally begins.

The US 10Yr (4.41%) and the 30Yr (4.55%) yields have dipped again. While below 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) the chances are still alive for a fall to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) and the rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.8% (30Yr) will not happen.

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and the 30Yr (2.64%) yields have dipped slightly and could be short-lived. The bullish view is intact to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0783%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0470%) have come down failing to breach 7.1%. A test of 7% looks likely now. A consolidation between 7% and 7.1% for some time looks like a possibility before the yields breaks above 7.1% and rise to 7.2%-7.3% (10Yr) and 7.2% (5Yr).

Dow Jones has recovered a bit but needs to rise past its key resistance. Else it will be vulnerable to a fall in the near term. DAX remains stuck in a narrow range but bias is positive to see a break on the upside soon. Nifty continues to rally and has scope to rise towards its key resistance at 22800. Nikkei has fallen, failing to sustain the break above 39000 but has supports coming up at 38500-38000 which are expected to hold and produce a bounce back. Shanghai has scope to test its key resistance. After that, a profit taking can be seen.

Dow (39872.99, +0.17%) is getting some support around 39780. But a sustained rise above 40000 is needed to go up to 40300-40400 first. Else it can remain vulnerable to break 39780 and fall to 39500 and lower.

DAX (18726.76, -0.22%) remains stuck in the 18600-18900 range. Bias is positive to get a break above 18900 and rise to 19200-19300.

Nifty (22529.05, +0.12%) has risen well from the low of 22405 yesterday. The bullish view of seeing a rise to 22800 remains intact. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if the Nifty turns down to retain the 21800-22800 range or not.

Nikkei (38747.00, -0.52%) has fallen, failing to sustain the rise seen above 39000. Support is at 38500-38000. While that holds, the chances of a rise towards 40000 or even 41000 will remain intact.

Shanghai (3162.27, +0.13%) has managed to hold above 3150. A test of key resistance at 3200 looks possible. After that, a corrective fall can happen towards 3150-3100.

Crude prices have fallen further as the mentioned resistances are holding well. Can fall some more in the near term. Metals have managed to sustain above their support as expected and while above that, they can continue their rally. Natural Gas has dipped but could find support at 2.50.

Brent ($ 82.35) has fallen below $ 82.50. It has scope to fall towards $ 80-75 while below the resistance at $ 85-86.

WTI ($ 78.10) has fallen further below $ 79 as the resistance at $ 80 is holding well. While below $ 80, it can fall towards $ 75-70 in the near term.

Gold (2425.60) has managed to sustain above 2400. While above 2400, a rise towards 2500 is possible in the near term.

Silver (32.33) has recovered from a low of 31.28. For now, the support at 31 seems to be holding. While above 31, there could be chances of a rise towards 33-34.

Copper (5.1120) has bounced a bit as the support at 5.00 has held well. While above 5.00, there is scope for a rise towards 5.40-5.45 before a pause can be seen.

Natural Gas (2.6330) has fallen below 2.65 after testing a high of 2.7980. May see a test of 2.55-2.50 before a bounce back can be seen towards 3.0. After that, a dip to 2.8-2.7 is possible.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 2.9% … Expected 2.1% … Previous 3.2%

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 4140K … Expected 4210K … Previous 4190K

Data Yesterday
…………..
9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – … Expected 19.9 … Previous 16.7 …Actual 17.3

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – … Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.9% …Actual 2.6%