The dollar Index has risen above 105 and Euro has slipped slightly below 1.08. Now if the rise in Index gets further extended to 106-106.50, then Euro would be vulnerable to test 1.0750-1.07 or lower on the downside. While EURJPY has faced rejection from the high of 170.80, USDJPY has sustained well above 157 and seems to be slowly moving up but watch for a dip from 157.50. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.25/26. Aussie and Pound have been declining as expected and, a test of 0.65/64 and 1.26 looks likely in the near term. EURINR, if breaks below 90 can extend to 89.50 before moving back to 91. USDINR is headed towards 83.40/50 from where a dip is possible. US GDP data release scheduled today would be important to watch.

Dollar Index (105.15) has risen above 105 as expected. Now, it needs to sustain above 105 to test 106-106.50 on the upside. Watch closely the US GDP data scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0796) came down significantly breaking below our mentioned range of 1.09-1.08 as the Dollar strengthened after the stronger US consumer confidence data. Going ahead, if the Dollar Index rises towards 106-106.50, then Euro would be vulnerable to test 1.0750-1.07 in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (157.39) has been slowly inching up but could face a near term dip while below 157.50. Only a confirmed break above 158 would make it further bullish towards 159-160.

EURJPY (169.91) has declined a bit from the high of 170.80, contrary to our target of 171.50-172. Further if the fall continues, can get extended towards 168-167 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2490) has become up to almost test 7.25. We retain our bullish target of 7.25/26 for the medium term.

Aussie (0.6602) has fallen sharply over the last 2-sessions and if it breaks below 0.66, it could get dragged lower towards 0.6550-0.65 or even towards 0.64 in the medium term.

Pound (1.2691) is bearish towards 1.26 while below crucial resistance at 1.28.

USDINR (83.35) has risen well in the last 2-3 sessions and can soon test 83.40/50 on the upside. Thereafter, whether the rise gets extended towards 83.55/60 or cools down a bit will have to be seen. We may expect some volatility next week after the Lok Sabha election results. Overall a broad range of 83.50/60-83.30/20 may hold.

EURINR (90.0115) is testing our mentioned level of 90 and failure to bounce back from current levels, can push it further to test 89.50 on the downside before it attempts to rise back in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. While this sustains, a further rise is possible in the coming days. Broadly the outlook is bullish. The US GDP data today and the US PCE data tomorrow are important to watch. The German yields have surged and are looking strong. Outlook is bullish and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within the expected range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range if not immediately but eventually.

The rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) has happened much faster than expected. While this sustains, the US 10Yr (4.62%) and the 30Yr (4.74%) can rise further towards 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) in the short-term. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and the 30Yr (2.81%) yields have surged. The 10Yr has broken 2.6% and can now test 2.8%-2.9% while this break sustains. The 30Yr can rise to 3% while above 2.7%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0715%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0538%) are moving up within the expected 7%-7.1% range. The bias is bullish to breach 7.1% eventually and rise to 7.2%-7.3% (10Yr) and 7.2% (5Yr). While 7.1% holds, a consolidation between 7% and 7.1% is possible before the bullish breakout happens.

Most of the equities have fallen sharply. Dow Jones, DAX and Nifty looks likely to extend the fall further. Nikkei has fallen sharply below 38000 but could find support at 37500-37000. Shanghai looks mixed and might trade within 3050-3200 for a while.

Dow (38441.54, -1.06%) continues to fall. It has declined below 38500 from where we had expected a bounce. The view is bearish to see a further fall to 38000-37800.

DAX (18473.29, -1.1%) is on a corrective fall. A break below 18400 can see an extended fall to 18300-18200. The uptrend can resume thereafter targeting 19200 and higher levels.

Nifty (22704.70, -0.80%) has declined below 22800 and can fall further towards 22500-22250. Resistances will now be at 22800 and then 23000-23100.

Nikkei (37989.50, -1.38%) has fallen sharply below the support at 38000. Next key support is seen at 37500-37000. If these holds, we can expect a range of 37000-39000 to hold for some time. Failure to hold above 37000 can drag it down to 36300-36200.

Shanghai (3106.64, -0.14%) is gradually coming down failing to rise above 3130. Near term outlook is mixed. It may trade within 3050-3200 range for a while.

Brent and WTI might trade sideways while below $ 85/86 and $ 80/81 for some time. Gold to trade within 2300-2400 with a possibility of moving up towards the upper end of the range. Silver lacks a follow through above 32 but while above the support at 31.00, there are chances of seeing a rally in the near term. Copper has fallen back sharply below 4.8 and a further break below 4.7, if seen, would increase the downside risk. Natural Gas too has fallen back below 2.7 and might come down further from here.

Brent ($ 83.49) has fallen back after testing $ 84.72. Key resistance is at $ 85-86. It might trade within $ 86/85-80 for a while before a fall can be seen towards $ 75.

WTI ($ 79.25) has fallen after falling to sustain the break above $ 80. A decisive break above $ 80-81 is needed to become bullish towards $ 82-83. Else it may trade sideways within $ 81/80-76 for a while.

Gold (2351.70) is stuck between 2365-2330 for now. Might trade within 2300-2400 for a while. Within this a rise to 2380-2400 is still possible.

Silver (32.03) lacks a follow through rise and is seen oscillating around 32.00. Support is at 31.00. While above 31, chances of rise towards 33-34 cannot be ruled out. .

Copper (4.7270) has fallen back towards 4.70 after facing rejections near 4.90. This is contrary to see a rise towards 5.0. Failure to rise past 4.80 coupled with a break below 4.70 would be vulnerable to a further fall to 4.6-4.5.

Natural Gas (2.6560) has fallen sharply below 2.7 contrary to our view for a rise towards 2.90-3.00. It can fall towards 2.6-2.5-2.4 while it remains below 3.0.

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.5 … Expected 96.0 … Previous 95.6

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn 3.4% … Expected 1.3% … Previous 1.6%

Data Yesterday
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No major data released yesterday.