After the second estimate for US QoQ GDP came lower than previous one to 1.24%, The dollar Index had declined a bit. Now, while Index holds above 104.50, a range of 104.50-105.50. Euro on the other hand can move within the range of 1.0850-1.08/0790. While EURJPY looks bearish towards 168, USDJPY can test 156 before attempting to rise back in the medium term. USDCNY came down sharply to the low of 7.2323 before recovering a bit. Above 7.24, it has a potential to test 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie needs to rise past 0.6650 to head towards 0.67 on the upside and Pound looks likely to rise towards 1.28 in the near term. EURINR, if breaks below 90 can extend to 89.50 before moving back to 91. USDINR continued to remain volatile within 83.50/60-83.30/20 region but could see a dip to 83.25/20 today.

US QoQ GDP estimate for Q12024 came lower than previous from 1.6% to 1.24%, taking the Dollar Index (104.865) down from the high of 105.18. Overall, while the support around 104.50-104 holds, the view remains intact to see trade between 104.50-105.50 for a few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0816) had risen a bit yesterday due to the Dollar weakness post US GDP data release. Now, an immediate resistance can be spotted around 1.085 and higher around 1.0870 which if holds; we anticipate the pair to move within a narrow region of 1.0850/70-1.08/0790 before eventually falling towards 1.0750-1.07 in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (156.74) is declining in line with our expectations and can further test 156 on the downside, while below 157.50. Only a confirmed break above 157.50 would make it further bullish towards 159-160.

EURJPY (169.52) looks bearish towards 168 in the medium term and only a strong break past 170-171 if seen, would negate such a fall and make the outlook bullish towards 172.

USDCNY (7.2405) has slipped sharply. The weakening Dollar contributed to the strength in Yuan. Currently, it has recovered a bit from the low of 7.2323 and if sustained, can target 7.25/26 for the medium term.

Aussie (0.6630) has sustained well above 0.66 for now. A strong break past 0.6650 will be needed to make the outlook bullish to 0.67 in the medium term. Otherwise, a break below 0.66 will be needed to drag it lower towards 0.6550-0.65 or even towards 0.64 in the medium term.

Pound (1.2716) reversed from the low of 1.26811 itself, contrary to our target level of 1.26. Currently it is reattempting to rise back towards 1.28, but unless a break past it is seen; a narrow range of 1.26-1.28 and a broad range of 1.24-1.28 is likely to hold in the medium term.

USDINR (83.3225) continues to remain volatile within the range of 83.40-83.20. Whether the rise gets extended towards 83.55/60 or cools down a bit will have to be seen. We may expect some volatility next week after the Lok Sabha election results. Today we may expect a bit of Rupee appreciation towards 83.25/20 on possible Euro and Yuan strength.

EURINR (90.0970) looks a bit indecisive in the near term. For now, our view remains intact that failure to bounce back from 90, can push it further to test 89.50 on the downside before it attempts to rise back in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have fallen back failing to sustain the break. Failure to rise back from here can drag them down in the coming days. The US PCE data release today is important to watch. The German yields have dipped. But while they sustain above their resistance-turned-support levels, the outlook is bullish to see further rise in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain within their sideways range. They can consolidate in this range for some more time and then see a bullish breakout eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.54%) and the 30Yr (4.68%) have come down failing to sustain the break above 4.6% and 4.7% respectively. A further fall from here can drag them down to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). That will negate the chances of the extended rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) yields have come down slightly. But while above 2.6%, the 10Yr can rise to 2.8%-2.9%. The 30Yr can rise to 3% while above 2.7%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0551%) has come down while the 5Yr GOI (7.0531%) remains stable. The 7%-7.1% range is intact for now and can continue for some more time. We expect a bullish breakout above 7.1% eventually and a rise to 7.2%-7.3% (10Yr) and 7.2% (5Yr)

Dow Jones has support just below the current level. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or if it extends the fall further. DAX has scope to fall towards its support before a bounce back can be seen. Nifty remains bearish for the near term. Nikkei is to trade within 37000-39000 for a while. Shanghai might test the lower end of the 3200-3050 range before a bounce can be seen.

Dow (38111.48, -0.86%) is coming down towards 38000-37800 in line with our expectations. It will have to be seen if it is bouncing back thereafter or extending the fall to 37300-37200.

DAX (18496.79, +0.13%) is hovering around 18400. A fall from here can take it down to 18200-18100 and then a reversal is possible.

Nifty (22488.65, -0.95%) continues to fall and has come down to 22500 as expected. While below 22800, there is room to see 22200 or even 22000-21800 in the coming days.

Nikkei (38114.50, +0.28%) sustains above the support at 37500. While above 37500-37000, we can expect a range of 37000-39000 to hold for some time. Only a break lower, if seen, can see a further dip to 36300-36200.

Shanghai (3103.94, +0.4%) might fall to 3050 and then a bounce can be seen towards 3130-3150. We can expect a range of 3050-3200 to hold for a while.

Crude prices have fallen sharply on lower than expected US GDP Q/Q data and might extend the fall towards the lower end of their sideways range. Gold is gradually moving up and has scope to rise towards 2380-2400. Silver, Copper and Natural gas have declined further and may come down towards 30, 4.5-4.4 and 2.5-2.4 before a bounce back can be seen.

Brent ($ 81.69) has fallen sharply below $ 82. Can dip further towards $ 80. View remains intact to see a sideways trade between $ 86/85-80 for a while before a fall can be seen towards $ 75.

WTI ($ 77.62) has fallen further below $ 78. Might extend the fall to $ 76-75. Overall a sideways trade within $ 81/80-76/75 can be seen for a while with a possibility of fall towards $ 70.

Gold (2366.80) is gradually moving up. It can rise to 2380-2400. Overall can trade within 2300-2400 range for a while.

Silver (31.24) has dipped towards 31.00. Failure to hold above 31 can see a fall to 30 and then a bounce can happen towards 32-33. It can trade sideways within 30-33 for a while.

Copper (4.6665) has fallen sharply towards 4.60. It may come down further to 4.50 or even 4.45-4.40 before a bounce back can be seen towards 4.7.

Natural Gas (2.5510) continues to dip and has scope to fall towards 2.5-2.4 before a bounce is possible towards 2.7.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.6% … Expected 2.6% … Previous 2.6%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn – … Expected – … Previous 8.4%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.5%

12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.0% … Previous 0.2%

Data Yesterday
…………..

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.5%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.5 … Expected 96.0 … Previous 95.6 …Actual 96.0

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn 2.5% … Expected 1.3% … Previous 1.6% …Actual 1.24%