The Dollar Index continues to remain volatile within its range of 104.50-105.50. Euro tested 1.082 on Friday before coming down. Unless a strong break past 1.09 is seen, it can move within the range of 1.08-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY need to sustain above 170 and 157 respectively to test 172 and 159-160 on the upside. USDCNY above 7.24, has the potential to test 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie needs to sustain 0.6650 to head towards 0.67 on the upside and Pound looks likely to rise towards resistance at 1.28 in the near term. EURINR can hold the range of 89.50/90-91 for a while. USDINR can remain volatile within 83.00-83.60 this week. Watch for Lok Sabha Election results tomorrow.
Lower Personal Income and US Core PCE releases led Dollar Index (104.567) to test 104.36 on Friday. Currently, it has recovered from the fall. Immediate support is seen near 104.50-104 which if holds, could take it higher towards 105.00-105.50.
EURUSD (1.0854) rose sharply to test 1.0882 on Friday due to the Dollar weakness before coming down. Now, an immediate resistance can be spotted around 1.0890-1.09 which if holds, can take Euro down towards 1.08-1.0790 again. Overall a range of 1.09-1.08 may hold for now.
Dollar-Yen (157.23) was expected to test 156 while below 157.50, but instead, it reversed from 156.56 itself. Now, it needs to sustain above 157 and rise past 158 to become further bullish towards 159-160. Else a range of 156-158 is likely to hold in the near term.
EURJPY (170.64) tested 169.45 on Friday before reversing from there. Currently, it has risen above 170 but a strong break past 171 will be needed to make the outlook bullish towards 172.
USDCNY (7.2445) needs to sustain above current levels to target 7.25/26 in the medium term.
Aussie (0.6654) has indeed risen past 0.6650 and has further room on the charts to test 0.67/6730 in the coming sessions before topping out. Thereafter, if the resistance holds; a corrective fall to 0.6550-0.65 or even 0.64 could be witnessed in the medium term.
Pound (1.2746) is headed towards 1.28. Thereafter, a strong break past it will be needed to bring 1.2850/29 into the picture. Else a narrow range of 1.26-1.28 and a broad range of 1.24-1.28 is likely to hold in the medium term if resistance at 1.28 holds strong.
USDINR (83.4675) has shown movement within 83.00-83.50 over the past 10days. Support is seen near 83.10-83.00 and resistance is seen at 83.50 and higher at 83.60. Volatility ahead of Lok Sabha Election results tomorrow and for the entire week can keep the pair within a broad range of 83.60-83.00 as RBI may try to monitor closely. Strength in the equity markets, if seen can strengthen the Rupee against the Dollar.
EURINR (90.1929) rose sharply to test 90.82 on Friday before cooling down. Unless a decisive break past 91 is seen, a range of 89.50/90-91 is likely to hold for a while.
The US Treasury yields have come down further on Friday after the US PCE data release. The US PCE fell to 2.65% (YoY) in May from 2.7% (YoY) in April. The yields can fall further in the coming days. The German yields remain stable. The view is bullish, and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down within their range. The sideways range is likely to remain intact for some more time before a bullish breakout happens.
The US 10Yr (4.48%) and the 30Yr (4.63%) have come down further. While this fall sustains, the yields can now fall to 4.4%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.45% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.66%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) yields remain stable. The bullish view is intact to see a rise to 2.8%-2.9% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) while they sustain above 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.0372%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0444%) have dipped further. The yields are coming down within their 7%-7.1% range. We expect this range to hold for some time and get a bullish breakout above 7.1%. That can take the yields up to 7.2%-7.3% (10Yr) and 7.2% (5Yr).
Dow Jones and Nikkei have seen a strong rise but both need to rise past 39000 for increased bullishness towards 40000. DAX and Shanghai have scope to test their key near-term supports before a bounce back can be seen. Nifty can open with a wide gap-up following the exit poll results and a strong rise in Dow Jones.
Dow (38686.32, +1.51%) has bounced back sharply on Friday. The 38000-37800 support zone seems to be holding for now. A strong follow-through rise above 39000 can take it up to 40000 again. It will then reduce the danger of the fall to 37300-37200.
DAX (18497.94, +0.01%) keeps alive the chances of testing 18200 first before resuming the uptrend targeting 19000 and higher levels.
Nifty (22530.70, +0.19%) can open with a wide gap-up following the exit poll results. GIFT Nifty indicates a 500-point gap-up. If that happens and sustains, then 23200 can be tested. However, be cautious as profit-taking is also highly possible after the actual election results come tomorrow. Better to stay out and just watch the price action for the next few days.
Nikkei (38841.00, +0.91%) has moved up towards 39000. A decisive break above 39000 is needed to rise further towards 40000 or higher.
Shanghai (3085.68, -0.04%) is gradually coming down towards the support at 3050. While that holds, a bounce back towards 3130-3150 can be seen. Overall a range of 3050-3200 can hold for some time.
Crude prices have recovered a bit after OPEC+ decided to continue the oil output cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025 which were due to expire at the end of 2024 and also to extend the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by another three months till Sep-2024 which were earlier said to expire by the end of Jun-24. Gold is likely to trade within 2400-2300 for some time. Silver can trade within 30-33 for a while if it sustains above 30. Copper has bounced back a bit but it has overcome the hurdle at 4.75 to bring back the bullishness. Natural gas has bounced back from 2.50 and might extend the bounce towards 2.90.
Brent ($ 81.63) bounced back after testing $ 80.55. The $ 85-80 range remains intact for now. However, our broader view is to see a break below $ 80 and fall towards $ 75.
WTI ($ 77.50) has recovered a bit from a low of $ 76.39. The $ 18/80-76/75 range remains intact for now. However, the broader picture is to see a break below $ 76-75 and fall towards $ 70.
Gold (2351) indeed tested 2381 in line with expectations for a rise towards 2380-2400 and has fallen from there. We expect it to trade sideways between 2400-2300 range for a while.
Silver (30.69) has bounced slightly after testing 30.35 last Friday. If 30 holds, we can expect a sideways consolidation between 30-33 for some time. Only a decisive break below 30, if seen, would be further bearish to see a fall towards 29-28.
Copper (4.6545) has bounced a bit from a low of 4.5710. It has to rise past 4.70-4.75 to bring back the bullishness. Else a further dip towards 4.5-4.4 cannot be ruled out.
Natural Gas (2.7150) has bounced back towards 2.75 after testing 2.52 in line with expectations for a fall towards 2.5-2.4 before a bounce can be seen towards 2.7. It may extend the bounce towards 2.9.
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 49.9 … Expected 50.5 … Previous 49.6
1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn – … Expected 51.6 … Previous 51.4
5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.7 … Expected 58.4 … Previous58.8
7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 39.7 … Expected 45.4 … Previous 41.4
8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – … Expected 47.4 … Previous 45.7
8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 49.3 … Expected 51.3 … Previous 49.1
13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – … Expected 50.2 … Previous 49.4
14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 50.9 … Expected 49.8 … Previous 49.2
Data Friday
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23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.6% … Expected 2.6% … Previous 2.6% …Actual 2.6%
9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.57% … Expected 2.50% … Previous 2.37% …Actual 2.57%
12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn – … Expected – … Previous 8.4% …Actual 7.8%
12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.5% …Actual 0.3%
12:30 18:00 US PCE
Expn 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3
12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.2%
12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.0% … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.0%