The Dollar Index below 104.50-105, looks bearish to 103 in the near term. Euro can rise to 1.10 if the Dollar weakens as expected. EURJPY and USDJPY have come off a bit as the Yen strengthens against Dollar. Now whether the fall gets extended to 168-167 and 152 respectively or gets halted around current levels will have to be seen. USDCNY may rise to 7.25/26 in the medium term. Aussie and Pound are holding well below their crucial resistances at 0.67 and 1.28 respectively. EURINR is near the crucial level of 91 which could hold for now. USDINR remained volatile within 83.00-83.50/60 region as expected and can continue to do so for the rest of the week as well on market reactions post the Lok Sabha elections. In the medium term, we need to wait and watch which way the pair will show a breakout.

Dollar Index (104.153) has held the level of 104 quite well for now. While the Index trades below 104.50-105, our view remains intact to see a fall toward 103 before potentially bottoming out in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.0884) has slipped slightly below 1.09 after testing 1.0916 on the upside. Currently, it is back within its old range of 1.08-1.09 but if the Dollar weakens below 104 then the Euro has a fair chance of testing 1.10 on the upside before possibly topping out.

Dollar-Yen (155.44) was expected to bounce back towards 158, instead, it extended its fall as the Yen remains stronger against dollar weakness post weaker US ISM Manufacturing data. An immediate support can be seen around 154 which if holds, can take the pair back towards previous levels of 156+. Else failure to do so can drag it further to 152 on the downside (confirmation of a break below 154 is needed).

EURJPY (169.18) has declined a bit as the Yen continues to strengthen. Now, it needs to be seen whether the fall gets extended towards 168-167 or halts around current levels. Watch price action closely around current levels. For now, we expect the upside to be capped at 172 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2443) came off a bit below 7.24, but has managed to bounce back above 7.24 now. Our outlook continues to remain bullish to 7.25/26 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6660) failed to rise past 0.67 and started to fall from 0.6699 itself. While the resistance around 0.67 holds; a corrective fall to 0.6550-0.65 or even 0.64 could be witnessed in the medium term. Only a decisive break past 0.67 can take it higher towards 0.6730/50.

Pound (1.2776) rose to a high of 1.2817 but appears to be false break for now as it is currently back within its narrow range of 1.26-1.28 and a broad range of 1.24-1.28. The pair needs to necessarily rise past 1.28 to test higher resistance at 1.2850 in the coming sessions else could continue trade within the mentioned range.

USDINR (83.5350) tested 82.95 on Monday on Lok Sabha Exit poll results which reversed yesterday and took the pair to 83.50/55 during the market hours as actual numbers turned out different from the exit poll outcome. The broad range of 82.90/83.00-83.60 mentioned earlier has been holding well so far. It would be crucial to watch which side the pair would now breakout to give a direction for the medium term. For now, we look at resistance at 83.60 to hold for the next few sessions.

EURINR (90.8962) is near our crucial level of 91 and a decisive break past it will be needed to make the outlook bullish further. Else, the range of 89.50/90-91 is likely to hold for a while.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall in line with our expectation. Intermediate supports are coming up which if broken can trigger more fall. The German yields are poised around their key supports. Failure to rise back from current levels can drag them lower. The ECB meeting tomorrow is important to watch.The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have surged after the General Election results yesterday. Need to see if this rise sustains or not. We will have to wait and watch for a few sessions to get confirmation on the strength of this surge.

The US 10Yr (4.34%) and the 30Yr (4.48%) have declined further sharply. The fall to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.45% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the fall is extending or the yields are reversing higher.

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and the 30Yr (2.67%) yields have dipped further. The 10Yr is below 2.55% and has to rise back immediately to rise to 2.8%-2.9% and avoid a fall to 2.45%-2.4%. The 30Yr has to sustain above 2.65% to keep the bullish view intact of seeing 3% on the upside. It is a wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1076%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1035%) have surged and closed above 7.1%. Need to wait and see if this rise sustains. If the 10Yr and 5Yr sustains above 7.06%, then there are good chances for a rise to 7.2% in the coming days.

Dow Jones can rise towards 39000 while above 38000-37800. A further rise past 39000 is needed for increased bullishness. DAX has fallen back and can test 18200 before a bounce back can happen. Nifty has tumbled below 22000 due to election results. A strong rise past 22400-22500 is needed to bring back the bullishness. Else there can be danger of falling further. Nikkei has dipped further but downside seems limited to 38000-37800. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 3050 is holding well.

Dow (38711.29, +0.36%) is holding higher. But a strong rise above 39000 will be needed to go back up to 40000 levels. 38000-37800 will continue to remain as a good support zone.

DAX (18405.64, -1.09%) has come down again and looks likely to test 18200 before reversing higher again. While above 18200, the trend is up to see 19000 and higher levels.

Nifty (21884.50, -5.93%) has tumbled and closed below 22000. A strong rise back from here above 22400-22500 is needed to bring back the bullishness. While below 22500 a fall to 21000-20800 cannot be ruled out.

Nikkei (38,496, -0.80%) has dipped further. Immediate support is at 38000-37800. While that holds, a range of 38000/37800-39000 can persist for a while before an upside breakout and rise towards 40000 can be seen.

Shanghai (3088.53, -0.09%) has bounced back as the support at 3050 is holding well. While above 3050, a bounce back towards 3130-3150 can be seen. Overall a range of 3050-3200 can hold for some time.

Commodities have fallen on Lower than expected US JOLTS Job Openings data. Crude prices remain vulnerable to a fall towards their key support in the near term before a bounce back can be seen. Gold to trade sideways between 2400-2300 for a while. Silver, Copper and Natural Gas have fallen back sharply and have scope to fall further towards their support which can hold and produce a bounce back from there.

Brent ($ 77.50) continues to fall and can test $ 75 or $ 74-73 before a bounce back can be seen towards $ 80-81.

WTI ($ 73.21) continues to fall and can test $ 70 before a bounce back can happen towards $ 76-78.

Gold (2349) to trade sideways between 2400-2300 for a while.

Silver (29.75) has fallen sharply below 30 after facing rejections at 31. While this break sustains, a further dip towards 29.00-28.30-28.00 could be seen. After that, a bounce back is possible towards 30.

Copper (4.5410) has fallen back below 4.60 as the resistance mentioned at 4.70 has held well. It can test 4.50-4.45 or 4.30 before a bounce back can be seen towards 4.6-4.7.

Natural Gas (2.6460) couldn’t rise towards 2.9-3.0 that we had expected. Instead fall sharply from a high of 2.8290. Immediate support is at 2.50-2.45 which might be tested in the near term. While the support holds, we can expect a range of 2.45/2.50-3.00 to persist for some time.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn – … Expected – … Previous -13.9

1:30 07:00 AU GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 61.6 … Expected 61.4 … Previous 60.8

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – … Expected 175K … Previous 192K

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
Expn – … Expected 4.75% … Previous 5.00%

Data Yesterday
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6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.3 … Expected – … Previous 1.3 …Actual 1.3