The Dollar Index remained stable above 105, while EURUSD is nearing the upper end of its range of 1.0650-1.0750. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY needs to necessarily break above the resistance near 158-158.50 and 170-170.50 to turn further bullish for the medium term; else a fall back could be seen. Aussie & Pound are ranged within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. Only a decisive break on either side can give further directional clarity in the near term. USDCNY has moved up towards 7.26 and might rise further towards 7.28 in the coming weeks while above 7.25/7.24. EURINR can trade within 89.00-89.80 region for some time. USDINR tested 83.33 on the onshore before recovering from there. Overall, the range of 83.30-83.50/60 is likely to hold for some time.
Dollar Index (105.26) has remained stable above 105 for the day, but a decisive break past 105.50 can take it towards 106-106.50 in the medium term. Else, it is likely to fall back towards the lower end of its 104-105.50 range.
EURUSD (1.0743) is nearing the upper end of its range of 1.0650-1.0750. An immediate resistance can be spotted around current levels and higher at 1.08. A broad range of 1.0650-1.0800 is likely to persist for a while.
Dollar-Yen (158.06) and EURJPY (169.82) needs a strong break past 158.00-158.50 and 170.00-170.50 respectively to rise towards 159-160 and 171-172. Else could fall back towards 156 and 168.
USDCNY (7.2594) has risen towards 7.26 and has scope to rise further towards 7.28 in the medium term while above 7.25-7.24.
Aussie (0.6667) and Pound (1.2711) have dipped slightly within the 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 region respectively. A break on either side of the range would be needed for further directional clarity in the medium term.
USDINR (83.46) tested 83.33 on the onshore markets before recovering from there. As expected, the immediate downside seems to be limited to 83.30/25 for now and the pair can continue to trade within a narrow range of 83.30-83.60.
EURINR (89.6160) is likely to trade within 89.00-89.80 for the next few sessions with a possible extension to 90 on the upside. A broad range of 89-90 can persist for a while.
The US Treasury yields have inched up but may not sustain. The yields can continue to fall and test their support in the coming days. Thereafter a rise is possible. The German yields are poised at their crucial support. A strong bounce is needed from here to avoid a deeper fall. It is a wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI can dip to test its key support and then can bounce back again.
The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.37%) yields have inched up slightly. The near-term outlook remains bearish to see 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.35%-4.25% (30Yr) on the downside. Thereafter the yields can rise back again.
The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.55%) yields remain at their crucial support at 2.4% and 2.55% respectively. A strong and sustained bounce from here is needed to rise and avoid a deeper fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.9746%, 07.10 GS 2034) can test the key support level of 6.95% and then bounce back again towards 7%. The downside can extend up to 6.9%, if a break below 6.95% happens.
DAX, Nifty and Nikkei have fallen back a bit. Dow Jones was closed yesterday but it has to surpass the resistance overhead for increased bullishness. DAX look vulnerable to break below its support of 18000. Nifty and Nikkei have near term supports which if holds can lead to a bounce back. Shanghai to remain ranged for a while.
Dow (38834.86) was closed yesterday. It has to breach the 39000-39200 resistance zone to strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 40000. Else a fall back to 38000 cannot be avoided.
DAX (18067.91, -0.35%) has come down again. It looks vulnerable to break 18000 and fall to 17700. A rise above 18200 first and then 18500 is needed to become bullish again.
Nifty (23516.00, -0.18%) has come down from the high of 23664. Support is at 23350-23300 while above which the bias remains positive to see 23800-24000 on the upside.
Nikkei (38372.50, -0.42%) has fallen back below 38500 but as long as it holds above 38000, a rise towards 39000-39300 can still be seen. Failure to hold above 38000 can drag it down to 37500 or even 37000.
Shanghai (3019.84, +0.05%) to trade sideways between 3000-3050 for a while. Only a decisive break below 3000, if seen, can lead to a fall towards 2950-2900. Our preference is to see an eventual breakout on the upside.
Crude prices have dipped slightly but have near term supports which if holds can lead to a bounce back. Gold and Silver can rise towards their key resistance in the near term. Copper to ranged between 4.4-4.6 for a while. Natural gas can rise towards 3.0-3.1 while above 2.8.
Brent ($ 85.09) and WTI ($ 80.54) have dipped slightly, but while above the support at $ 84 (Brent) and $ 80-79 (WTI), there could be chances of rise towards $ 87.50-90 (Brent) and $ 82.50-85 (WTI) in the coming days.
Gold (2345.30) has risen towards the upper end of the 2300-2360 range. It can rise towards the resistance at 2380/2400. A break above 2350/2360 can trigger this rise. We can expect a broad range of 2300-2400 to hold for a while.
Silver (29.99) has moved up towards 30. It can rise towards 30.80-31.00 in the near term while it stays above 29.00-28.50.
Copper (4.5315) rose to 4.57 before coming off from there. It has to rise past 4.55/4.60 to reduce the danger of falling towards 4.24/4.20 and to move up towards 4.7-4.8. A range of 4.4-4.6 can hold for now.
Natural Gas (2.9430) has risen towards 2.95. It can rise further towards 3.0-3.1 while above 2.80.
8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
Expn – … Expected 1.50% … Previous 1.50%
11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – … Expected 5.25% … Previous 5.25%
11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – … Expected 0-2-7 … Previous 0-2-7
12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn 5.5 … Expected 4.8 … Previous 4.5
12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1397K … Expected 1370K … Previous 1360K
12:30 18:00 US Current Account Balance
Expn – … Expected -207.0 … Previous -194.8
Data Yesterday
…………..
6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 1.9% … Expected 2.0% … Previous 2.4% …Actual 2.0%