Dollar Index has to rise past 104.50 to establish near term bullishness or else they could fall back. USDJPY and EURJPY have fallen, failing to break above 158 and 172 and looks likely to fall further from here. USDCNY can soon test 7.28 in the near term before topping out. The Aussie continues to fall but could find support near 0.6640-0.6600 and bounce back. Pound fall has stalled at 1.29 and is likely to trade sideways between 1.2850-1.3000 for a while. USDINR has scope to rise towards 83.70/75 before a fall back could be seen from there. We might expect some volatility in USDINR today on account of Union Budget 24-25. EURUSD and EURINR have scope to rise towards their key resistance if they stay above 1.0870/1.0850 and 91-90.75 respectively.

Dollar Index (104.27)  lacks strength to rise past 104.50. A break above it is needed to become bullish towards 105. But failure to break above 104.50 coupled with a break below 104 can drag it towards 103.

EURUSD (1.0888) is hovering below 1.09. Support is at 1.0870-1.0850. While that holds, chances of rise towards 1.0950/1.10 remain intact. However, we are not looking for a break above 1.10 in Euro within the current movement. Only a decisive break below 1.0850, if seen, would be bearish for a fall towards 1.08.

Dollar-Yen (156.52) is coming down towards 156 as the resistance at 158 seems to be holding well. While below 158, the outlook is bearish for a fall towards 155-152.

EURJPY (170.64) fell back to 170.05 yesterday after failing to rise past 172 and is currently trading around 170.60. A further dip to 169 is possible while it remains below 172.

USDCNY (7.2725) trades above 7.27. We expect the pair to soon test 7.28 on the upside. Thereafter, if the resistance holds, a corrective fall towards 7.26/7.25 could be seen.

Aussie (0.6637) continues to fall but has support at 0.6640-0.6600 region. While these hold, there could be chances of bounce towards 0.67-0.6720.

Pound (1.2924) fall seems to have stalled at 1.29. Key immediate support is seen at 1.2850. While above that, we can expect a broad range of 1.2850-1.3000 to hold for some time.

USDINR (83.6625) tested a new high of 83.6750 yesterday and closed at 83.6625 today. View remains intact to see a rise towards 83.70/75 before a fall back towards 83.50-83.40 takes place. However, we could expect some volatility today on account of Union Budget 24-25.

EURINR (91.1009) remains stable above 91. Support is at 91.00-90.75. While that holds, a rise towards 92 cannot be ruled out. Only a break below 91.00-90.75, if seen, can pull the pair down towards 90.50-90.00.

The US Treasury yields have risen further. The bounce from the support is sustaining well. This leaves the door open for the yields to move further higher this week. The German yields continue to move up in line with our expectation. The bullish view is intact and the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain vulnerable to fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.46%) yields have risen further. This keeps intact our view of seeing a rise to 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.55% (30Yr) this week.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.67%) yields sustain higher and continue to move up. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) on the upside while the yields remain above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.9663%) is still stuck between 6.96% and 6.98%. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 6.94% while below 6.98%. A break below 6.94% can drag the yield down to 6.9%.

The 5Yr GoI (6.9219%) has risen back well from the low of 6.8947%. An intermediate bounce to 6.94%-6.96% is a possibility before the yield breaks 6.9% and falls to 6.8% eventually.

Dow Jones has managed to sustain above its support and while above it, our view will remain bullish. DAX has bounced back as the support at the 18200-18100 zone held well and might extend the bounce further. Nikkei remains subdued but we expect the support at 39000 to hold and produce a bounce back. Nifty lacks a follow through rise and might face volatility today on the outcome of the Union Budget 2024-25. Shanghai to trade sideways between 2900-3000 for a while.

Dow (40,415.44, +0.32%) is managing to hold above 40200 but seems to lack strength. As mentioned yesterday, the Dow has to hold above 40200 and get a strong rise to avoid a fall to 39500 and rise to 42000.

DAX (18407.07, +1.29%) has risen back sharply. The 18200-18100 support zone has held very well. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the DAX up to 18600-18800 in the coming days.

Nifty (24509.25, -0.09%) has room to test 24200-24150. Need to see what happens after that. The outcome of the Budget today will be key in setting the tone for the market going forward.

Nikkei (39668.50, +0.24%) remains subdued below 40000. Key support is seen at 39000 from where a bounce back towards 41000 looks possible. Only a break lower, if seen, would be vulnerable for a further fall towards 38000.

Shanghai (2950.57, -0.46%) has fallen towards 2945 but the view remains intact to see a sideways trade between 2900-3000 for a while.

Crude prices have recovered slightly but the broader view remains bearish. Gold and Silver has bounced slightly but could face resistance at 2420-2430 and 29.70-30.00. Copper has to sustain above 4.15 and rise past 4.25 to become bullish or else it would be vulnerable to see further fall. Natural gas outlook remains bullish while above 2.00.

Brent ($ 82.55) has recovered a bit from a low of $ 81.60 but bias remains bearish for a fall towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 78.50) fell to $ 77.55 before bouncing back a bit from there. But the broader view remains bearish for a fall towards $ 75-74 in the near term.

Gold (2403.70) has bounced a bit after testing 2385. Immediate resistance is seen at 2420-2430. While that holds, a fall 2380-2360 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (29.39) has bounced a bit from 28.93 but could face resistance at 29.70-30.00. While 30 holds, a fall towards 28.50/30 could be seen.

Copper (4.2095) fell to 4.1620 in line with expectations for a dip to 4.15 and has bounced a bit from there. It has to sustain above 4.15 and rise past 4.25 to become bullish towards 4.4-4.5. Else could be vulnerable to a further dip to 4.0.

Natural Gas (2.2480) has risen sharply above 2.2. A further rise towards 2.4-2.5 can be seen in the near term.

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 4105K …Expected 3990K …Previous 4110K

Data Yesterday
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No major data released yesterday.