All the major currencies have gained against Dollar after the weaker US NFP and higher US Unemployment on Friday. Euro has risen significantly past 1.09 and is headed towards the immediate resistance at 1.0950. USDJPY and EURJPY can soon test our mentioned targets of 145-42 and 158. USDCNY has slipped sharply below 7.20 and any break below 7.10 can indicate medium term bearishness. Aussie can continue to trade within 0.64-0.66 region and Pound above immediate support near 1.27. USDINR is currently trading higher on the off-shore markets at 83.80 and overall, it looks bullish above 83.65/70 for a rise to 83.90/84. EURINR needs to sustain above current levels to head towards 92 or higher in the near term.

Dollar Index (103.042) fell significantly on Friday after the US NFP came out lower than expected at 114k (177k) and US Unemployment rose to 4.3% than earlier 4.1%. Immediate support can be seen around current levels of 103 and lower at 102 above which we are retaining our view of the Index rising back higher towards 104-105 in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.0919) rose sharply past 1.09 on Dollar weakness post US NFP and US Employment data release. Immediate resistance can be spotted around 1.0950, below which the pair is likely to fall towards 1.0850-1.08 in the coming sessions. Overall, we expect a broad range of 1.0750-1.0950 to hold for some time.

Selling continues in Dollar-Yen (145.25) and EURJPY (158.64) as the pairs are nearing lower targets of 145-142 and 158 respectively. Thereafter, we will have to see as to whether the fall continues further in the medium term towards 143/142 and 153/152 respectively or gets halted around these levels.

Yuan along with Yen has appreciated significantly as the USDCNY (7.1463) has sharply broken below the lower end of our mentioned range of 7.2550-7.20. We need to be cautious around current levels as any break below 7.10 can make the outlook further bearish in the medium term. The pair could get some support near 7.12/11 in the very near term.

Pound (1.2796) reversed from the low of 1.27 itself, contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 1.26. Now while above 1.27, it can attempt to rise back towards 1.29-1.30 in the near term. Only a decisive break below 1.2750/2700 if seen, can bring 1.26 back into the picture.

Aussie (0.6504) continues to remain volatile within it range of 0.64-0.66 which is likely to hold in the near term. Watch out for the RBA meeting scheduled today.

USDINR (83.7550) has moved up to 83.80 on the NDF markets despite weaker Dollar, USDJPY and USDCNY rates while Euro trades above 1.09. We might see a higher opening in the on-shore markets as well. We expect the pair to hold above 83.65/67 test 83.80/90 soon.

EURINR (91.5652) has surged significantly past 91 and now it needs to sustain above current levels to head towards 92 or higher in the coming sessions. Failure to do so can again drag it lower towards 90 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply after the US jobs data on Friday. The US unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July triggered the fall in the yields. Failure to bounce back from current levels can drag the yields further lower in the coming days. The German yields have declined below their intermediate support. There is room to see an extended fall going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped below their near-term support. Bearish view is intact and more fall can be seen this week ahead of the RBI meeting on Thursday.

The US 10Yr (3.75%) and the 30Yr (4.07%) yields have tumbled on Friday and have declined well below the expected levels of 3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr). Failure to rise back from here can drag it further down to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. Resistances will now be at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.17%) and the 30Yr (2.41%) yields have come down further. The downmove is strong. The yields can fall further to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) in the coming weeks.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8945%) and the 5Yr GoI (6.8162%) have declined below 6.9% and 6.82% respectively. View remains bearish. The yields can fall to 6.85%-6.75% (10Yr) and 6.7% (5Yr) in the coming weeks.

Global equities selloff continues after the release of lower US NFP data and higher Unemployment rate which has climbed to 4.3%. Dow Jones is currently testing its support. Failure to hold above it and bounce back above 40000 would make it vulnerable to see further fall. DAX, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai look bearish for the near term.

Dow (39737.26, -1.51%) tumbled to a low of 39358 and has recovered slightly from there. Failure to rise back above 40000 from here can drag it down to 38200 this week.

DAX (17661.22, -2.33%) has declined and closed below 17700. A corrective bounce to 18000 is a possibility. But while below 18000, the view is bearish to see 17000-16800 on the downside.

Nifty (24,717.70, -1.17%) fell sharply on Friday as expected. It has room to test 24500-24450. Need to see if it is bouncing back after that or extending the fall to 24100-24000.

Nikkei (34138.50, -4.98%) has fallen sharply, breaking below the support of 35000. While this break sustains, a further dip towards 31000 could be seen.

Shanghai (2893.18, -0.42%) continues to fall and has scope to test 2850-2800 on the downside.

Crude prices tumbled last Friday on the lower than expected release of US NFP data. Gold and Silver outlook seems bullish while above the support at 2440 and 27.50 respectively. Copper looks range bound. Natural Gas continues to drift lower but is likely to get support at 1.9 and might bounce back from there.

Brent ($ 77.10) and WTI ($ 73.00) has fallen sharply breaking below the mentioned support at $ 78 (Brent) and $ 74 (WTI). Next key support is seen at $ 75 (Brent) and $ 71-70 (WTI) which may hold and produce a bounce back towards $ 75 (Brent) and $ 80 (WTI).

Gold (2480) rose to 2523 last Friday and has dipped from here to levels below 2500. Immediate support is at 2440. While that holds, chances are high for Gold to break above 2500 and rise towards 2550-2580/2600 in the near term.

Silver (28.52) is stuck within the 28.00-29.50 range. Support is at 27.50, while above which, it may rise past 29.50 and move up towards 30-31.

Copper (4.1175) looks range-bound within 4.00-4.20. As long as Copper remains above 4.00, a break above 4.2 and rise towards 4.3-4.4 cannot be ruled out.

Natural Gas (1.9210) continues to drift lower. Key support at 1.9 can hold and produce a bounce back towards 2.2 or even higher to 2.5.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 62.3 …Expected – …Previous 60.5

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.4% …Previous 4.4%

Data Friday
…………..
1:30 07:00 AU PPI
Expn – …Expected 1.0% …Previous 0.9% …Actual 1.0%

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.5 …Expected -0.2 …Previous 1.3 …Actual 1.2

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 44.7 …Expected 42.6 …Previous 43.9 …Actual 43.5

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 222K …Expected 177K …Previous 179K …Actual 114K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.8% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 4.1% …Actual 4.3

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.2 …Expected – …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3