The Dollar Index has risen well and can test 103.80-104 in the coming sessions before topping out. On the other hand, Euro is near the immediate resistance around 1.0950/60 which if holds, can push the pair down towards 1.09-1.0850. USDJPY and EURJPY may soon test our mentioned targets of 148-150 and 161/163 respectively while within an overall downtrend. Pound is nearing towards the immediate resistance around 1.2750/28 which if holds, can drag the pair down towards 1.26, while the Aussie needs to break above 0.66 to turn bullish. USDCNY is headed towards 7.20. EURINR could test the supports near 91.50 and 91 before possibly bouncing back towards 92. USDINR has crucial resistance at 84; need to see whether the resistance holds or not. Watch price action closely around the current levels. Any pullback can drag it down to 83.80.

Dollar Index (103.19) rose to 103.546 yesterday before falling slightly from there. Immediate resistance is seen near 103.50 and higher at 103.80/104 which can hold and take the pair down towards 103-102.70. Broader range of 102-104 may hold in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0922) had declined to a low of 1.0881 but has recovered. Immediate resistance can be spotted near 1.0950/60, below which it has a fair chance of falling towards 1.09-1.0850. A break above 1.0960 if seen again can bring in bullishness but looks less likely for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.38) and EURJPY (160.97) are seeing a corrective rise as expected within a longer-term downtrend. The targets of 148-150 and 161-163 respectively mentioned yesterday might get tested soon before falling back to 145 and 158/157 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.1736) needs to sustain above current levels to reach 7.20. Thereafter, whether the rise would extend further or the pair would fall back to resume a downtrend will have to be seen. A decisive break past 7.20 can only bring in 7.22/24+ into picture. Watch price action near 7.20.

Pound (1.2754) is nearing the upper end of the mentioned range of 1.26-1.28. Immediate resistance can be spotted near current levels which if holds, can bring it back towards the lower end of the range in the near term. On the longer term charts there is enough room towards 1.24 but that would come into the picture on a confirmed break below 1.26.

Aussie (0.6597) has risen well to our expected 0.66 but now needs a decisive break past 0.66-0.6650 hurdle to turn bullish towards 0.6750-0.68. Else a dip below 0.66, could see trading within 0.66-0.6450/6400.

USDINR (83.9675) traded mostly above 83.90 yesterday, testing an all-time high of 83.9725 and closing the session near the high. No sign of retracement is seen over the last 3-sessions as the bulls hold the pair intact above 83.90. On the 3-day candles, immediate trend resistance is visible at 84. It would be crucial to see if that holds to push the pair down in the coming week or allows a break higher. Any pullback from 84 can take the pair to 83.80.

EURINR (91.6884) is down to almost test interim support near 91.50 which if breaks can take it further down to 91.00. The 91.50-91.00 support zone would likely hold for the near term and push the pair higher towards 92 again soon.

The US Treasury yields have come closer to a key resistance. We expect the yields to turn down and resume the fall. A sustained break above the resistance will only negate the bearish view. The German yields remained stable and higher. The overall view is bearish and any rise from here will be short-lived. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced but may not sustain higher. Though there is some room to rise from here, the yields are likely to reverse lower again and resume the fall. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% in its policy meeting yesterday.

The US 10Yr (3.97%) and the 30Yr (4.26%) yields have come closer to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr). We retain the view of the yields reversing lower again and fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) over the medium-term. Only a sustained rise above 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) will negate the fall.

The German 10Yr (2.26%) and the 30Yr (2.50%) yields remain higher but stable. We expect the upside to be capped at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) if there is more rise from here. The broader trend is down, and the yields can see 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8780%) and the 5Yr GoI (6.8013%) yields have bounced but are unlikely to sustain higher. The trend is down, and the yields can fall to 6.8%-6.75% (10Yr) and 6.7% (5Yr). Any rise from here can be capped at 6.9% (10Yr) and 6.82%-6.84% (5Yr).

Decent rise/recovery is seen in most of the equities after US Unemployment Claims came out lower than expected, indicating a resilient labour market thereby easing fears about the economy concerns. Nifty is stuck in a narrow range. Shanghai can target its immediate resistance in the near term before resuming its downtrend.

Dow (39446.49, +1.76%) has risen and closed above 39400. A strong follow-through rise above 39500 will take it up to 40000 and will reduce the danger of the fall to 38200 that we have been expecting.

DAX (17680.40, +0.37%) has risen to 17700. A strong rise above 17800 is needed to move up again towards 18000. Only then the fall to 17000-16800 will get negated.

Nifty (24,117, -0.74%) is stuck between 23900 and 24400 and can fall within this range. While below 24500, the bias is negative to break 23900 and fall to 23500-23300.

Nikkei (35475.00, +1.84%) continues to rise and looks bullish towards 37000-37500 for the near term.

Shanghai (2877.83, +0.27%) is moving up gradually. A rise towards 2900-2925 looks possible before resuming the downtrend towards 2800.

Brent and WTI continue their uptrend and can potentially target $ 80-82 (Brent) and $ 78-80 (WTI). Gold, Silver and Copper have recovered a bit after US Unemployment Claims fell to 233K than the market expectation of 241K which was a hawkish case for Fed rate policy. Natural Gas can continue to rise further towards 2.2-2.4.

Brent ($ 79.23) rose to $ 79.37 yesterday and a further rise to $ 80-81-82 looks possible in the near term.

WTI ($ 76.20) continues to inch up. It can target $ 78-80 in the near term, a broad range of $ 71-80 can hold for the medium term.

Gold (2427.50) bounced back from a low of 2420 contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 2400-2375-2350. While it remains above 2400, a rise towards 2500-2550 might be seen.

Silver (27.83) has bounced back sharply from 26.50, contrary to our view of seeing a test of 26. A rise towards 28.30-28.50 looks possible. After that a break above 28.50 is needed to turn further bullish towards 29.50.

Copper (4.0135) has bounced back from the low of 3.9235. We had expected to see a test of 3.85-3.80. If it stays above 3.85, an eventual rise towards 4.2-4.3 can be seen.

Natural Gas (2.1430) continues to rise. View remains intact to see a rise towards 2.2-2.4 in the near term.

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -1.4K

Data Yesterday
…………..
4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%