The Dollar Index has immediate resistance at 103.80/104 which can be tested soon before topping out. At the same time, Euro can fall back towards 1.09-1.0850. Immediate upside for USDJPY and EURJPY can be capped up at 148/148.50 and 162/163 respectively and they can resume their downtrend in the medium term either from current levels or after testing the upside targets. Pound is holding well below the immediate resistance around 1.2750/28 and is likely to fall towards 1.26. The Aussie needs to break above 0.66 to turn bullish, else can remain ranged within 0.66-0.6450/64 for some time. USDCNY can trade within 7.18-7.16 but a break below 7.16 could drag it lower towards 7.14. EURINR could test the supports near 91.50 and 91 before possibly bouncing back towards 92. USDINR could see a dip to 83.85/80 before attempting to rise back towards 84 again in the medium term.

Dollar Index (103.16) has sustained well above 103 for now. Still the immediate resistance lies around 103.80/104 which can be possibly tested before coming down towards 103-102.70. Broader range of 102-104 may hold in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0918) has a fair chance of falling towards 1.09-1.0850 while below 1.0950/60. Only a break above 1.0960 if seen again, can bring in bullishness but it looks less likely for now.

Dollar-Yen (146.88) and EURJPY (160.38) had declined a bit on Friday. We expect the immediate upside to be capped at 148/148.50 and 162/163 respectively. In the medium term, the pairs can fall back to 145 and 158/157 either from current levels or upon testing the mentioned levels,.

The near term outlook on USDCNY (7.1732) appears a bit indecisive for now. Immediate resistance is seen near 7.18 which if holds can keep the pair between 7.18-7.16 for a while. A break below 7.16 can drag the pair further down towards 7.14 in the near term. On the other hand, a sustained break past 7.18 may take it towards 7.20. Overall, near-term range of 7.18-7.16 and a broad range of 7.20-7.14 looks possible for the near term.

Pound (1.2761) is nearing the immediate resistance around 1.2770 and while it holds, the pair is likely to fall back towards 1.26. A confirmed break below 1.26 if seen, can make the pair vulnerable to test 1.25- 1.24 in the medium term before bottoming out.

Aussie (0.6584) declined from the high of 0.6605 on Friday as it failed to sustain above 0.66. Now while below 0.66, a range of 0.66-0.6450/6400 can hold for some time.

USDINR (83.96) tested 83.87 on Friday but did not sustain and moved up to close at 83.96. A near-term dip to 83.85/80 looks likely before rising back towards 84.

EURINR (91.6502) has support around 91.50-91.00 which would likely hold for the near term and push the pair higher towards 92 again soon.

The US Treasury yields have come down as expected after testing their resistances. A further fall from here will indicate the resumption of the broader downtrend and can drag the yields lower in the coming days. The German yields have turned down again. The bearish view is intact, and more fall is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable and are stuck in a narrow range. The bias is negative to break the range on the downside eventually and fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.94%) and the 30Yr (4.22%) yields have come down as expected after touching 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr). While below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr), the yields can fall to 3.85% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) initially and then 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) eventually over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.22%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields have resumed their fall. That keeps the downtrend intact to see 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) on the downside. Any rise will be capped at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8808%) and the 5Yr GoI (6.7922%) yields remain stable. They are stuck inside the 6.85%-6.9% (10Yr) and 6.77%-6.81% (5Yr) range for now. Bias is bearish to break the range on the downside and fall to 6.8%-6.75% (10Yr) and 6.7% (5Yr).

Dow Jones remains higher but could face resistance in the 39800-40000 region. DAX can get a corrective rise to 18000 and then a fall back might be seen. Nifty might trade within 24500-24000 for some time while it stays below 24500. Shanghai looks vulnerable to break below 2850 and fall towards 2835-2800.

Dow (39497.54, +0.13%) managing to hold higher but may face resistance in the 39800-40000 region. A reversal from there will keep alive the chances of seeing 38200 on the downside. A strong rise above 40000 is needed to negate the fall.

DAX (17722.88, +0.24%) can get a corrective rise to 18000 and then might fall back towards 17000-16800 in the coming weeks.

Nifty (24367.50, +1.04%) has to breach 24500 decisively to go up to 24800-25000 again. While below 24500, a range of 24500-24000 is possible for some time. The bias will be negative to break 24000 and fall to 23500-23300.

Nikkei (35025) is closed today but a rise towards 37000 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Shanghai (2863.81, +0.00%) has fallen back after testing a high of 2888. For now, it seems ranged between 2900-2850. It looks vulnerable to break below 2850 and fall towards 2835-2800.

Brent and WTI continue their rally and can potentially target $ 80-81-82 (Brent) and $ 78-80 (WTI). Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped slightly but all have key immediate supports, while above which, they can potentially target 2500-2550, 29.00-29.50 and 4.2-4.3 respectively. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 79.85) and WTI ($ 77.11) continued their rally. They can potentially target $ 80-81-82 (Brent) and $ 78-80 (WTI) respectively in the near term.

Gold (2465) has dipped slightly from a high of 2477 but trades above 2450. We retain our view of seeing a rise towards 2500-2550 while above 2430-2400.

Silver (27.36) couldn’t rise towards 28.30-28.50 as expected. Instead it has fallen back after failing to rise past 28. If it manages to sustain above 26.50-26.00, then a break above 28 and rise towards 29.00-29.50 could be seen.

Copper (3.9775) tested a high of 4.05 before coming off a bit from there. Support is at 3.90-3.85. It can potentially rise towards 4.2-4.3 while above 3.90-3.85.

Natural Gas (2.2110) continues to move up and can rise towards 2.4-2.5 in the near term.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 8.1% …Expected 5.9% …Previous 5.9%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 3.82 …Expected 3.80 …Previous 5.08

Data Friday
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12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -1.4K …Actual -2.8K