The Dollar Index is attempting to rise back while above 101. Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole scheduled today is awaited. Euro can head towards 1.12/1.13, if it sustains above 1.11. USDJPY and EURJPY need to hold above 145 and 160 to continue the corrective up move. The pound needs to sustain above 1.31 to head towards 1.32, else it can get dragged towards 1.29/28 in the medium term, and Aussie looks bearish to 0.6650 or lower. USDCNY may trade above 7.12 for now. EURINR needs to sustain above 93 to head towards 94 from where a dip can be seen. USD INR may continue to trade within 83.85/90-83.40 for the near term.

The Dollar Index (101.366) had recovered a bit yesterday after the US Existing Home sales came higher than expected at 350k (3920K). Note, 101 is a crucial support level. Any break below it if seen, can trigger a fall towards 99.50 in the near term. Watch out for US New Home Sales data release and Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole today.

EURUSD (1.1122) looks stable above 1.11 for now. While the rise sustains, it has a fair chance to test 1.12/1.13 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (145.62) and EURJPY (162) seem to be holding above 145 and 160 respectively. Still, a bounce can be seen from current levels to test 150/152 and 164/165 in the medium term respectively. Else, a break below 145 and 160 if seen can be bearish.

The USDCNY (7.1419) indeed, has risen from the lower end of the 7.18-7.12 range. For now, we expect the range to persist for a while. Any break below 7.12 could make it vulnerable to test 7.10/08 but that looks less likely just now.

Aussie (0.6711) has been coming off since the last few sessions in line with our bearish view. While the resistance around 0.6775 and 0.6850 holds, the pair is likely to fall back towards 0.6650 or lower in the near term.

Pound (1.3103) is finding it difficult to sustain its rise past 1.31. Only if it manages to sustain above 1.31, can it rise to 1.32. Else, a decline can be possible towards 1.29/28 in the medium term.

USDINR (83.9625) can continue to trade within a broad range of 83.75-84.00 and an immediate range of 83.85/90-84.00 for now.

EURINR (93.3594) needs to sustain above 93-93.50 to head towards 94 or higher in the near term. Any break below 93 if seen, can drag the pair towards 92/91.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. Key resistances can cap the upside if the yields rise more from here. Broader view is bearish, and the yields can fall back again. The US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech today at the Jackson Hole meeting will be an important event to watch. Any hint on a rate cut in September can move the market. The German yields have risen back but are likely to be short-lived. The trend is down and there is more room for the yields to fall from here.

The US 10Yr (3.84%) and the 30Yr (4.12%) yields have bounced back but are unlikely to sustain. Further rise from here if seen will be capped at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr). We expect the yields to reverse lower again and keep the downtrend intact to see 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.24%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields have risen back well. But this bounce could be short-lived. The broader bearish view is intact to see 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) on the downside. Resistance at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) can cap the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8521%) is getting interim support at 6.84%. Bias is negative to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%. Any bounce above 6.85% can be capped at 6.9%-6.92%.

Dow Jones is holding well below its resistance level and might fall towards 40500-40400. Thereafter we need to see if bounces back from there or breaks lower. DAX and Nifty continues to rise and remain bullish for the near term. Nikkei can rise towards 39000-40000 in the near term while above 37500. Shanghai remains vulnerable for a fall towards 2800.

Dow (40712.78, -0.43%) has come down. The 40900-41000 resistance is holding well. A test of 40500-40400 looks possible now. A bounce from there can take the Dow above 41000 eventually. A break below 40400 can drag it down to 40000 and lower. We will have to wait and watch.

DAX (18493.39, +0.24%) continues to move up and keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 18600-18700. As mentioned yesterday, the price action thereafter will have to be seen if the rise is extending to 19000 or turning down towards 18400-18300 again.

Nifty (24,811.50, +0.17%) has risen above 24800 and keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 25000 on the upside. Support is at 24500.

Nikkei (38,247.50, +0.11%) trades above 38000. Immediate support is at 37500. While that holds, a rise towards 39000-40000 could be possible.

Shanghai (2841.94, -0.24%) has dipped towards 2840. View remains the same to see a break below the support of 2840 and fall towards 2800.

Crude prices have bounced back as the mentioned support held well and looks bullish to target further upside. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen in line with expectations and may fall further from here. Natural gas has broken below the lower end of the range and has room to come down further in the near term.

Brent ($ 77.11) bounced back from a low of $ 75.65. The Support at $ 75 seems to be holding well. While above $ 75, a rise towards $ 80 and then towards $ 82-85 can be seen.

WTI ($ 72.91) bounced back above $ 72 from a low of $ 71.46. The Support at $ 71 held well. A rise towards $ 75 and then towards $ 78-80 might be seen.

Gold (2523.90) has seen a low of 2506.40 in line with expectations. It may break below 2500 and fall further towards 2450.

Silver (29.10) fell sharply to 28.80 yesterday in line with expectations and might fall further towards 28.50-28.00.

Copper (4.1510) has fallen towards 4.1 as expected as the resistance at 4.20-4.25 has held well. A further fall to 4.0-3.9 might be seen.

Natural Gas (2.0580) has fallen sharply breaking below the lower end of the 2.3-2.1 range, contrary to our view to see a break on the upside and rise towards 2.4-2.5. While this break sustains, a further fall to 2.0-1.9 could be seen.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -12 … Expected -12 … Previous -13

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 2.7 … Expected 2.7 … Previous 2.9

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 648K … Expected 628K … Previous 617K

Data Yesterday
…………..
14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3913K … Expected 3920K … Previous 3890K …Actual 3950K