The Dollar Index, after the Jackson Hole meeting came off sharply as Powell signaled a rate cut in the Fed’s Sep-24 meeting. Crucial supports are seen at 100.50 and lower at 99.50 which can hold in the near term. Euro on the other hand can rise towards 1.1250/1.13.00 before possibly topping out. USDJPY and EURJPY if break below current levels, can be bearish to 142/140 and 160/158 respectively in the coming sessions. The pound has risen past 1.32 but a decisive break past 1.3250 will be needed to become further bullish. Aussie has surged significantly as well and now, a confirmed break past 0.68 can take it higher towards 0.6850. USDCNY looks bearish to 7.10/08 in the near term. EURINR is nearing the target of 94. USDINR may continue to trade within 84.00-83.75/70 region for the near term.

On Friday, the Dollar Index (100.62) came off after Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, in the Jackson Hole meeting signaled a rate cut by Fed in its meeting on 18-Sep-24. Crucial supports can be spotted around 100.5 and lower at 99.50 above which the Index is likely to bounce back towards 101+ in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1190) surged significantly on the Dollar weakness and tested 1.12 on Friday. Now, either from current levels or upon testing 1.1250/1.1300, it is likely to fall back towards 1.11/10.

Dollar-Yen (143.78) has broken below 145 while EURJPY (160.87) is trading below 161. A break below current levels if seen, can drag the pairs further towards 142/140 and 160/158 respectively in the coming sessions. Overall view is bearish.

The USDCNY (7.1198) has been moving in line with our alternate view of seeing a fall to 7.10-7.08 on a break below 7.12. The pair needs to necessarily rise past 7.12 and sustain above it to negate a fall to 7.10/08.

Aussie (0.6784) has risen sharply past its resistance around 0.6775, contrary to our view of seeing a fall to 0.6650. Now, a decisive break past 0.68 if seen, can take it higher to 0.6850 before halting. Else, it is likely to fall back towards 0.67-0.66.

Pound (1.3206) managed to sustain above 1.31 and rise past 1.32. Going ahead, an immediate resistance can be spotted around 1.3250, a break past which will be needed to rise further. Else it is likely to fall back towards 1.31 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (83.8950), on the Off-shore market, is currently trading lower around 83.80/77 on Dollar weakness on Friday. Overall, we expect a broad range of 83.70/75-84.00 to persist for a while on the OTC market with a downside limited to 83.75/70.

EURINR (93.8076) is nearing towards 94. Thereafter, a strong break past 94 will be needed to extend the rise further to 95 in the medium term. Failure to do so can bring it back towards 92/91.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday following the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The bearish view remains intact, and the yields can fall more from here. Powell said that the time has come for the policy to adjust. So, a rate cut now in September is a given. The German yields remain stable. Any rise from here will be capped. The trend is down, and the yields are likely to fall back again. The 10Yr GoI is attempting to bounce. But resistances are there to cap the upside and keep the overall downtrend intact.

The US 10Yr (3.79%) and the 30Yr (4.09%) yields have reversed lower as expected. The broader bearish view is intact to see sharply. The broader bearish view is intact to see 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside while below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.22%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields have dipped slightly. Any rise can be short-lived and capped at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr). The view remains bearish for a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8591%) is attempting to bounce. Any strong follow-through rise can be capped at 6.9%. The overall downtrend is intact, and the yield is likely to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75% eventually.

Strong rise seen in Dow Jones after Powell’s remark that “the time has come for policy to adjust”. Dow looks further bullish from there. DAX has entered into its key resistance zone. Need to see if it fallbacks from here or breaks higher. Nifty remain bullish for the near term. Nikkei lacks a follow through rise but has near term support, while above which, the outlook remain bullish. Shanghai remains vulnerable for a fall towards 2800.

Dow (41175.08, +1.14%) surged well, breaking the resistance at 41000. Outlook is bullish to see 41800-42000 on the upside now. Support will now be around 40800.

DAX (18633.10, +0.76%) has risen into the 18600-18700 resistance zone. A sustained break above 18700 will be bullish to see 19000-19500 in the coming weeks. Else it can fall back to 18300. We will have to wait and see.

Nifty (24,823.15, +0.05%) remained higher and stable on Friday. The outlook is bullish to see 25000 and higher while it remains above 24500.

Nikkei (37,931.50, -1.27%) lacks strength to rise past 38500. Immediate support is at 37500. While that holds, we may see an eventual rise towards 39000-39500-40000.

Shanghai (2847.90, -0.23%) hovers above 2840. View remains bearish to see a break below 2840 and fall towards 2800.

Crude prices have scope to target their immediate resistance in the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper have bounced back well contrary to our bearish view and may look to rise more from here. Natural gas might trade within 2.0-2.3 for some time.

Brent ($ 78.66) has scope to rise towards $ 80-80.30. Thereafter a further break above $ 80-80.30, if seen can lead to a rise towards $ 82-85.

WTI ($ 75.38) has risen above $ 75 and has scope to rise further towards $ 78. A break above $ 78, if seen, can trigger a rise towards $ 80-81.

Gold (2548.60) has bounced back towards 2550 contrary to our view for a fall further towards 2450. A rise towards 2600 might be seen while it sustains above 2500.

Silver (29.78) has bounced back sharply towards 30 contrary to our view to see a further fall towards 28.50-28.00. It may now rise towards 31.00-31.50 while it stays above 29.00-28.80.

Copper (4.2055) too has bounced back and even broke above the resistance at 4.2 contrary to our view to see a fall towards 4.0-3.9. While this break sustains above 4.2, a rise towards 4.4 can be seen.

Natural Gas (2.1690) fell to a low of 2.0050 in line with expectations and has bounced back from there to trade above 2.15. A broad range of 2.0-2.3 might hold for some time.

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 87

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 86.20 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 87.10

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 87.60 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 86.90

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn -1.0% … Expected 4.0% … Previous -6.6%

Data on Friday
———————-
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -12 … Expected -12 … Previous -13 …Actual -13

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 2.7% … Expected 2.7% … Previous 2.9% …Actual 2.7%

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 648K … Expected 624K … Previous 668K …Actual 739K