The Dollar Index has risen a bit after the US Durable goods came stronger at 9.9%. Now we need to see as to whether the rise extends further to 101.50-101.75 or not. PCE inflation — the Fed’s favored gauge of price growth — is due on Friday. Euro can fall back towards 1.1150-1.11 in the near term while below 1.1250/1.1300. USDJPY needs to rise past 145 to turn bullish again while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164 for a while. The pound is holding well below our mentioned resistance of 1.3250 and can fall towards 1.13 or lower soon. Aussie failed to rise past 0.68 and a break below 0.6750 can trigger a fall to 0.67-0.6650. USDCNY needs to sustain above 7.12 to rise back towards 7.18. EURINR can fall back towards 93-92 in the coming sessions while below 94. USDINR may continue to trade within 84.00-83.75 region for the near term.

The Dollar Index (100.893) recovered a bit yesterday from the low of 100.53 as the US Durable goods MoM% came out higher than the previous at 9.9% (-6.9%). The US Case Schiller and US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today. It is to be seen if the rise extends towards 101.50-101.75 or the index falls back towards supports of 100.5 and 99.50.

EURUSD (1.1165) declined a bit as the Dollar saw some recovery post stronger MoM US Durable goods data release. Further, if the fall continues, it can extend to 1.1150-1.11 in the near term. Overall, the view remains bearish below the resistance of 1.1250/1.1300.

Despite seeing a recovery yesterday, Dollar-Yen (144.86) continued to trade below 145. The pair needs to see a sustained rise past 145 to become bullish again towards 148/150, else it is likely to fall back towards 142/140 again.

EURJPY (161.74), on the other hand, has risen past 161. While the pair sustains above 160, a range of 160-164 can persist. Bearishness will again come into the picture on a break below 160.

The USDCNY (7.1260) has risen past 7.12. Now, if sustained, the earlier broad range of 7.12-7.18 can persist for a while. Else, a break below current levels can make the pair vulnerable to test 7.10-7.08. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Aussie (0.6779) failed in its attempt to rise past 0.68 and now, a confirmed break below 0.6750 can drag it further to 0.67-0.6650 in the near term. Only a strong break past 0.68 can take the pair higher to test the resistance near 0.6850 before halting.

The resistance at 1.3250 seems to be holding well as the Pound (1.3189) started coming off from the high of 1.3220. While the resistance holds, the pair is likely to fall towards 1.31 or even lower in the coming sessions.

USDINR (83.9050) observed a high of 83.91 yesterday. Overall, a broad range of 83.75-84.00 can persist for a while.

EURINR (93.6822) was expected to test 94 on the upside but instead, it started coming off from the high of 93.8798 itself. Failure to rise past 94 can make the pair vulnerable to test 93/92 soon.

The US Treasury and the German yields have bounced slightly. But this is likely to be short-lived. Resistances are there on both the yields to cap the upside in case of a corrective rise. The broader view continues to remain bearish. The German and Treasury yields are likely to fall back and resume the downtrend going forward. The 10Yr GoI remains lower and stable. The bias is negative to break the support and fall eventually.

The US 10Yr (3.81%) and the 30Yr (4.10%) yields have bounced slightly. The broader view remains bearish for a fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr). Any corrective rise can be restricted to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.24%) and the 30Yr (2.48%) yields have inched up slightly. While below 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr), the downtrend will remain intact to target 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8506%) remains lower but stable. The bias is negative to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%. Immediate resistance is at 6.86% and the higher one is at 8.9%.

Dow Jones and Nifty have room to rise towards 41800-42000 and 25500. DAX is holding below its resistance for now. A clear break above its resistance is needed for increased bullishness or else it could fallback. Nikkei sustains above its support and while above it, the near term view remain bullish. Shanghai outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 2800.

Dow (41240.52, +0.16%) continues to move up. The bullish view will be intact to see 41800-42000 while above 40800.

DAX (18617.02, -0.09%) has come down slightly. As mentioned yesterday, a strong break above 18700 is needed for a rise to 19000-19500. Else the DAX can fall back to 18300.

The rise to 25000 on the Nifty (25,010.60, +0.76%) has happened. There is room for more rise towards 25500. Supports will be at 24750 and 24500.

Nikkei (38,109.00, +0.13%) sustains above the support at 37500. While above 37500, a rise towards 39000-39500 cannot be ruled out.

Shanghai (2847.67, -0.27%) continues to hovers above 2840. View remains bearish to see a break below 2840 and fall towards 2800.

Crude prices have risen well and looks further bullish for the near term. Gold and Silver have dipped slightly but chances of rise towards their key resistance will remain intact as long as they holds above the immediate support. Copper remains higher and looks bullish towards 4.4. Natural gas to remain range bound within 2.0-2.3 for some time.

Brent ($ 80.16) has risen above $ 80 and tested $ 80.53 so far. A further rise towards $ 82-85 looks possible in the near term.

WTI ($ 77.14) has seen a rise to $ 77.60 so far. It may break above $ 78 and rise towards $ 80-81 while it sustain above $ 76-75.

Gold (2541.50) has dipped slightly after testing a high of 2563. A rise towards 2600 cannot be ruled out while it stays above the support at 2520-2500.

Silver (29.90) lacks strength to rise past 30. Support is at 29. While above that, chances of rise towards 31.00-31.50 remains intact.

Copper (4.2255) sustains higher above 4.2. A rise towards 4.4 looks possible while above 4.2.

Natural Gas (2.1220) looks range bound within 2.0-2.3.

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 6.9% … Expected 6.9% … Previous 6.8%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 103.4 … Expected 100.2 … Previous 100.3

Data on Yesterday
———————-
8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 87 … Actual 86.6

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 86.20 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 87.10 … Actual 86.5

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 87.60 … Expected 86.50 … Previous 87.00 … Actual 86.8

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn -1.0% … Expected 4.0% … Previous -6.9% … Actual 9.9%