The Dollar Index did not see much reaction despite the release of stronger US Consumer Confidence and Case Chiller data. Immediate support is at 100.5 which needs to hold to produce a bounce back towards 101-101.50. Euro can fall back towards 1.1150-1.11 in the near term while below 1.12. USDJPY needs to rise past 145-146 to turn bullish again while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164 for a while. The pound for now is holding well below our mentioned resistance of 1.3250 and unless a strong break past it is seen, it is likely to fall towards 1.31 or lower. Aussie is oscillating around the crucial level of 0.68, a break past which if seen can take it higher to 0.6850. Watch price action closely around the current levels. USDCNY needs to sustain above 7.12 to rise back towards 7.18. EURINR can fall back towards 93-92 in the coming sessions while below 94. USDINR may continue to trade within 84.00-83.75 region for the near term.

Despite the stronger Consumer Confidence and Case schiller data release at 103.3 and 6.5%, the Dollar Index (100.73) showed little reaction to the data. Currently it is hovering near the mentioned support around 100.5, if the support holds; a bounce back to 101-101.50 could be seen in the near term. Else it could fall further towards 100-99.50

EURUSD (1.1165) below 1.12 looks bearish to 1.1150-1.1100 in the near term. Only a strong break past 1.12 if seen, can take it higher towards 1.1250-1.1300.

Dollar-Yen (144.39) yesterday failed in its attempt to sustain its rise past 145 and reversed from the high of 145.176. Only a strong rise past 145-146 can take it higher to 148/150, else it is likely to fall back towards 142/140 again.

EURJPY (161.21) tested 162.17 on the upside yesterday before coming down. While above 160, a range of 160-164 can persist. Bearishness will again come into the picture on a break below 160.

The USDCNY (7.1299) looks stable above 7.12 for now. Currently the pair is back within its earlier broad range of 7.12-7.18 and if sustained, can rise higher within it. For now, we expect the broad range to persist for a while. Any break below 7.12 can drag the pair lower to 7.10-7.08.

Aussie (0.6796) rose sharply to the high of 0.6813 before coming down. Price action needs to be monitored closely around the current levels as a decisive break past it can take it higher towards 0.6850 in the coming sessions. At the same time, on the downside, a confirmed break below 0.6750 can drag it further to 0.67-0.6650 in the near term.

Pound (1.3246) observed a high of 1.32664 yesterday before declining a bit from there. Immediate resistance is at 1.3250, a decisive break past which will be needed to continue the bullishness in the trend. Else, while the resistance holds, the pair is likely to fall towards 1.31 or even lower in the coming sessions.

USDINR (83.93) traded flat yesterday. Overall, a broad range of 84.00-83.75 can persist for a while.

EURINR (93.7556) needs to necessarily rise past 94 to become bullish further, failure to do so can bring it down towards 93/92 soon. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

The US Treasury yields are holding on to the bounce. However, resistances can cap the upside if there is more rise from here. The broader trend is down, and the yields are likely to reverse lower again. The German yields are on a corrective rise. There is room to move up further before the overall downtrend resumes and the yields fall back again. The 10Yr GoI is attempting to rise. Key resistances are ahead to restrict the rise and drag the yields lower again.

The US 10Yr (3.82%) and the 30Yr (4.11%) yields sustain higher. Though more rise cannot be ruled out, while below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr), the bias is bearish. The yields can fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.29%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields have moved up further. The resistance at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) can cap the upside. The broader downtrend can resume eventually and drag the yields down to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8619%) has risen above 6.86% and is attempting to bounce. 6.88%-6.9% is a key resistance that can cap any further rise from here. While below 6.9%, the bias is bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%.

Dow Jones and Nifty have scope to rise towards 41800-42000 and 25500 while above the support at 40800 and 24500. DAX is showing signs of breaching above the resistance and target further upside. Nikkei is stuck in a narrow range but has scope to eventually break on the upper end of the range. Shanghai hovers above 2840 but outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 2800.

Dow (41250.50, +0.02%) is trying to rise back. While above 40800, the bias will remain bullish to see 41800-42000.

DAX (18681.81, +0.35) shows a high chance to breach 18700 which can take it up to 19000 and even 19500 in the coming weeks. That will negate the index falling back to 18300.

Nifty (25017.75, +0.03%) is oscillating around 25000. A strong follow-through rise above 25100 will clear the way for a rise to 25500. Any dip below 25000 can find support at 24750 and 24500.

Nikkei (38,216.00, -0.30%) appears ranged between 37500-38500. Chances are high for it to break on the upside and rise towards 39000-39500 as long as it holds above 37500.

Shanghai (2844.92, -0.13%) continues to hovers above 2840. View remains bearish to see a break below 2840 and fall towards 2800.

Crude prices fell sharply on Tuesday after Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 Brent crude forecast to $ 77 a barrel from earlier estimate of $ 82 per barrel but have immediate supports which may hold and produce a bounce back. Gold, Silver and Copper lacks a follow through rise but still have scope to rise towards 2600, 31-31.50 and 4.4 respectively. Natural gas has been falling but downside might be limited to 2.0-1.9.

Brent ($ 78.67) has declined below $ 79 failing to rise past $ 80. Immediate support is at $ 78. While that holds, a break above $ 80 and rise towards $ 82-85 could be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 75.73) has fallen sharply below $ 76 failing to rise above $ 78. Support is seen at $ 74.50-74.00, while above which, chance are high for a break above $ 78 and rise towards $ 80-81.

Gold (2551.50) is oscillating around 2550. A rise towards 2600 cannot be ruled out while it stays above the support at 2520-2500.

Silver (29.82) lacks strength to rise past 30. Support is at 29. While above that, chances of rise towards 31.00-31.50 remains intact.

Copper (4.2030) trades above 4.2 but lacks a follow through rise. Support is at 4.18-4.15. While 4.15 holds, there could be chances of seeing a rise towards 4.4.

Natural Gas (2.0840) has been coming down towards 2.0. Downside might be limited to 2.0-1.9. While above 2.0/1.9, it is likely to trade sideways between 1.9/2.0-2.3 for a while.

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 95.3 … Expected 95.9 … Previous 95.9

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – … Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.8%

Data on Yesterday
———————-
13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 6.87% … Expected 6.90% … Previous 6.92% …Actual 6.47%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 103.4 … Expected 100.2 … Previous 101.90 …Actual 103.30