The Dollar Index is trading near the immediate resistance around current levels, a break past which will be needed to head towards 102.50-103 in the near term. Euro can soon test 1.10 on the downside. USDJPY has risen past 145 and needs to sustain above current levels to rise further towards 148-150, while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164. The pound is coming off as expected and is likely to fall towards 1.31 or lower. Aussie is currently moving within a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750. USDCNY has risen well above 7.08 and can test 7.12/14 soon. EURINR can test 92 in the coming sessions while below 93. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.75 -84.00 region for the near term.

The US Personal Income released higher than expected at 0.3% (0.2%). This led the Dollar Index (101.711) to strengthen further to the high of 101.783. Currently, the Index is trading near the immediate resistance around the current levels, a break past which will be needed to head towards 102.50-103 in the near term. Failure to rise past current levels can make it bearish again for a while.

EURUSD (1.1049) is coming off as expected and further if the fall continues, it can get extended to 1.10 in the near term before attempting to rise back. Only a strong break below 1.10 if seen, can drag the pair further to 1.0950-1.09.

Dollar-Yen (146.04) has indeed risen past 145 and now if sustained, can head towards 148/150. Only a break below 145/44 if seen, can make the pair vulnerable to test to 142/140 again. Else, overall view is bullish (within a near term corrective upmove) for now above 145.

EURJPY (161.40) is moving higher within its range of 160-164 which can persist for a while.

Despite Dollar strength the USDCNY (7.1073) did not recover much on Friday. However, it has seen a rise today and while above our mentioned support around 7.08, the pair can rise towards 7.12/14 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6762) tested the high of 0.6816 before coming down. For now, a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750 can hold for some time. A confirmed break below 0.6750 can drag it further to 0.67-0.6650 in the near term.

Pound (1.3126) tested 1.3109 on Friday before rising back from there. However, the pair has enough room to extend its fall to 1.30-1.29 but a confirmed break below 1.31 will be needed for that. Watch price action closely around 1.31.

USDINR (83.8675) may continue to trade in a narrow range of 84.00-83.80/75 for the near term.

EURINR (92.7292) is likely to see a fall towards 92-91 in the coming sessions before bottoming out for the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields have moved up further on Friday. The US PCE data released aided in pushing the Treasury yields higher. The US PCE inched up to 2.5% (YoY) in August, up from 2.47% in July. Resistances are there to cap the upside in both the US and German yields. The broader trend is down, and the US and German yields are likely to resume the downtrend and fall again. The 10Yr GoI sustains higher. But strong resistances are ahead which can restrict the upside and keep the broader downtrend intact.

The US 10Yr (3.90%) and the 30Yr (4.20%) yields have risen on Friday. However, resistance at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) can cap the upside and keep the bearish view intact of seeing 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.30%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) yields have risen further. Though there is room to see 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) from here, the yields can reverse lower again after that and resume the downtrend targeting 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8647%) sustains above 6.86%. But resistance at 6.88%-6.9% can cap the upside. View is bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%.

Dow Jones and Nifty are heading up towards their resistance zone, which if holds, can lead to a corrective fall. DAX and Nikkei looks bullish towards 19500 and 39000-39500 respectively. Shanghai has fallen back as expected and remains vulnerable to see a fall towards 2800-2775.

Dow (41563.08, +0.55%) is heading up towards 41800-42000 as expected. Failure to breach 42000 can drag it down to 41500 or even lower. The US markets are closed today.

DAX (18906.92, -0.03%) sustains higher. Outlook is bullish to see 19500 on the upside. Support will be in the 18600-18500 region.

Nifty (25235.90, +0.33%) continues to move up. Our bullish view is intact to see 25500-25600. Thereafter a corrective fall to 25000 is possible. Support is now at 25000-24900.

Nikkei (38,712.50, +0.24%) trades above 38500. View remains intact to see a rise towards 39000-39500 in the near term.

Shanghai (2825.05, -0.6%) has fallen back sharply below 2850 after testing 2867.96 as the mentioned resistance held well. This keep our view intact to see a fall towards 2800 or even lower to 2775.

Commodities have fallen sharply. Crude prices have fallen but have crucial supports coming up which may hold and keep them ranged for a while. Gold and Copper downside might be limited to 2500 and 4.1. Silver on the other hand has fallen below 29 and may come down further to 28.50-28.00. Natural Gas can rise towards its upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range.

Brent ($ 76.27) has fallen sharply below $ 77. Support is at $ 75. While that holds, a range of $ 75-80 may persist for some time.

WTI ($ 72.95) has fallen below $ 73. Support is at $ 71. While that holds, a range of $ 71-78 may persist for some time.

Gold (2525.40) has fallen towards the lower end of the 2570-2520 range. Support is at 2500. While that holds, a range of 2500-2600 might persist for a while. Within this, chances of seeing a rise towards 2600 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (28.78) has fallen below 29. While below 29, a fall towards 28.50-28.00 could be seen. This could delay the chance of seeing a rise towards 31.

Copper (4.1870) has fallen back after testing a high of 4.2780 on last Friday. Downside might be limited to 4.1. While above 4.1, chances of seeing a rise towards 4.4 will remain intact.

Natural Gas (2.1820) is holding well above the support at 2.0. While above 2.0, it may rise towards the upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range.

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 49.2 … Expected 49.5 … Previous 49.1

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 49.6 … Expected 50.0 … Previous 49.8

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.3 … Expected 57.8 … Previous 58.1

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 44.9 … Expected 43.7 … Previous 43.5

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – … Expected 45.6 … Previous 45.8

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 51.9 … Expected 52.5 … Previous 52.1

Data on Friday
———————-
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.6% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.7%

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.4% … Expected 6.5% … Previous 6.5% …Actual 6.4%

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.1% … Expected 2.2% … Previous 2.6% …Actual 2.2%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn 8.2% … Expected 6.9% … Previous 7.8% …Actual 6.7%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.2% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.1% … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US PCE
Expn 0.1 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.0%