The Dollar Index needs a decisive break past 102 to make the outlook bullish in the near term. Euro has recovered well from the low of 1.1041. Need to see whether the rise gets extended further past 1.11 or if it falls back below 1.10. USDJPY looks bullish towards 148-150, while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164. The pound looks stable above 1.31. Bearishness will only come in if a strong break below 1.31 is seen. Else it can attempt to rise back towards 1.32 in the near term. Aussie is currently nearing the lower end of its narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750. USDCNY has risen past 7.12 as expected and now if sustained can extend its rise to 7.14 in the coming sessions. EURINR appears bearish to 92 while below resistance at 93. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.80-84.00 region for the near term. Look out for the US ISM Manufacturing Data release scheduled today.

The Dollar Index (101.68) declined a bit from the high of 101.799. A decisive break past 102 will be needed to make the outlook further bullish to 102.50-103. Else, the Index can be bearish again for a while. Watch out for the US ISM Manufacturing Data release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1066) was expected to test 1.10 on the downside before attempting to rise back, but instead, it bounced back from the low of 1.1041 itself. Now, the pair needs to sustain above the current levels and rise past 1.11 to become bullish again. Alternatively, a strong break below 1.10 if seen, can drag the pair further to 1.0950-1.09.

Dollar-Yen (146.69) tested 147.212 before coming down. Above 145, the pair has a fair chance of testing 148/150 in the near term. On the other hand, EURJPY (162.33) is moving higher within its range of 160-164 which can persist for a while.

As expected the USDCNY (7.1215) has risen past our initial target of 7.12 and if sustained, can extend its rise towards 7.14 in the coming sessions. Support at 7.08 is holding well for now.

Aussie (0.6773) is nearing the lower end of the earlier mentioned narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750. Note, a break below 0.6750 can drag it further to 0.67-0.6650 in the near term. Until then, the range can persist for a while.

Pound (1.3140) is holding well above 1.31 for now and can attempt to rise back towards 1.32 in the near term. Bearishness will come in only when a strong break below 1.31 is seen.

USDINR (83.9225) is rising higher within the narrow range of 83.80-84.00, which can hold in the near term.

EURINR (92.8716) has support near 92.50 and resistance at 93. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. For now, while the resistance holds, view is likely to see a fall towards 92-91 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields have inched up in the early Asian session today. Resistances are there to cap the upside and trigger a fall again. Broader view remains bearish. The German yields have also moved up but are unlikely to sustain. We expect the broader down trend to resume going forward. The 10Yr GoI has risen. It can test its resistance in the next few days and then resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (3.92%) and the 30Yr (4.21%) yields have inched up in the early Asian session today. View remains the same. Resistance at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) can cap the upside. The downtrend is likely to resume targeting 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.33%) and the 30Yr (2.57%) yields have moved up further. Resistances at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) can cap the upside. Broader view is bearish to see a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8754%) is moving up. We expect the 6.88%-6.9% resistance to hold and trigger a reversal. The broader view is bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75% eventually.

Dow Jones and Nifty have scope to test their resistances before a corrective fall can be seen. DAX and Nikkei have managed to sustains higher and remains bullish for a rise towards 19500 and 39500 respectively. Shanghai continues to fall and can test 2785-2780-2775 on downside before a bounce back can happen.

Dow (41563.08) was closed yesterday. Outlook is bullish to see 41800-42000 as expected. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a corrective fall to 41500 is happening or not.

DAX (18930.85, +0.13%) has bounced back well from the low of 18778. While above the 18600-18500 support, the bullish view is intact to see 19500 on the upside.

Nifty (25278.70, +0.17%) is inching up and can see a test of 25500-25600. Thereafter a corrective fall to 25000 is a possibility.

Nikkei (38,782.00, +0.25%) sustains above 38500 and looks bullish for a rise towards 39500 in the near term.

Shanghai (2800.25, -0.31%) has seen a low of 2799.37. A fall towards 2785-2780 or even 2775 looks likely before a bounce back can be seen towards 2850.

Crude prices have recovered a bit and are likely to trade sideways for a while. Gold and Copper remains lower but downside might be limited to 2500 and 4.1. Silver can fall towards 28.50-28.00. Natural Gas can rise towards its upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range.

Brent ($ 77.37) has recovered a bit from a low of $ 76.21. Support is at $ 75. While above that, a range of $ 75-80 is likely to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 74.08) has bounced back from a low of $ 72.89. Support is at $ 71. While above that, a range of $ 71-78 may hold for some time.

Gold (2526.30) has fallen towards the lower end of the 2570-2520 range. Support is at 2500. While that holds, a range of 2500-2600 might persist for a while. Within this, chances of seeing a rise towards 2600 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (28.88) has fallen below 29 and has seen a low of 28.66. A further fall towards 28.50-28.00 could be seen. This could delay the chance of seeing a rise towards 31.

Copper (4.1925) trades below 4.20 but downside seems to be limited to 4.1. While above 4.1, chances of seeing a rise towards 4.4 will remain intact.

Natural Gas (2.1720) has scope to rise towards the upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range.

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.0 … Expected 0.1 … Previous 1.2

7:00 12:30 CH GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.5%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – … Expected 0.0 … Previous 47.8

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 47.9 … Expected 47.5 … Previous 46.8

Data on Yesterday
———————-
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 49.2 … Expected 49.5 … Previous 49.1 …Actual 49.8

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 49.6 … Expected 50.0 … Previous 49.8 …Actual 50.4

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.3 … Expected 57.8 … Previous 58.1 …Actual 57.5

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 44.9 … Expected 43.7 … Previous 43.5 …Actual 49

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – … Expected 45.6 … Previous 45.6 …Actual 45.8

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 51.9 … Expected 52.5 … Previous 52.1 …Actual 52.5