The weaker Jolts Jobs opening data release took the Dollar Index below 101.50 and if sustained below 101 can drag it towards 100.50-99.50. Meanwhile, the Euro is trading higher within 1.10-1.11 region. USDJPY and EURJPY have fallen sharply below 145 and 160 respectively and failure to rise back can make the outlook further bearish in the near term. US ADP Employment data release is scheduled today. Aussie and Pound have risen well but a break past 0.6750 and 1.32 will be needed to maintain the ongoing bullishness. USDCNY is nearing the lower end of the 7.12/14-7.08 range. EURINR has risen past 93 and now it needs to hold well above the current levels to head towards 93.50. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.80 and 84.00.

The lower-than-expected Jolts Jobs opening at 7.67 mln (8.09mln) signaled a softening of the labor market, which thereby led Dollar Index (101.313) to fall sharply to the low of 101.232. Now, any break below 101 if seen can drag the Index further to the low of 100.5 or even 99.50. US ADP Employment today and US NFP and Unemployment scheduled tomorrow respectively are crucial data releases to watch that could keep the volatility intact in the Dollar.

EURUSD (1.1079) is nearing the upper end of our mentioned range of 1.10-1.11 in yesterday’s edition. A strong break past 1.11 will be needed to make the outlook bullish further, until then range can persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (143.83) and EURJPY (159.35) fell sharply below 145 and 160 respectively on Dollar weakness. Further, if the fall continues, they can get extended to 142-140 and 158-156 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.0986) is nearing the lower end of the expected range of 7.12/14-7.08. We need to see whether the range remains intact or if the pair declines further below 7.08. Watch price action closely around the 7.08 support.

Aussie (0.6727) tested 0.6685 on the downside, while Pound (1.3151) tested 1.31 before bouncing back higher. A decisive break past 0.6750 and 1.32 will be needed for both pairs to maintain bullishness in the trend. Else they are likely to fall back towards 0.6650-0.66 and 1.31/1.3070 respectively.

USDINR (83.97) traded flat yesterday. The range of 84.00-83.80 can continue to hold in the near term. Only a break above 84.00 can take USDINR much higher.

EURINR (93.0373) has risen past 93 and if sustained can head towards 93.50 soon. At the same time, any break below 93 immediately can trigger a fall towards 92.50. A range of 92.50-93.50 may hold for the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our broader bearish view. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall more from here. Any intermediate bounce could be short-lived. The 10Yr GoI has dipped, breaking its near-term range on the downside. The broader down trend is likely to resume after the next support at 6.84% is also broken in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (3.76%) and the 30Yr (4.06%) yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact to see 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside while below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.22%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields have come down further. That keeps intact the bearish view of a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). Resistances are at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8579%) has dipped below 6.86%. Our bearish view is intact to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75% eventually.

Dow Jones and Nifty have recovered a bit and a rise towards 41800-42000 and 25500-25600 looks possible as long as the support at 40600-40500 and 25000-24900 holds. DAX has fallen below its support and failure to bounce back immediately from here might drag it further down. Shanghai has scope to bounce back while above 2780-2775.

Dow (40974.97, +0.09%) has recovered slightly after Tuesday’s sharp fall. While above the 40600-40500 support zone, the bullish view might remain intact for a rise to 41800-42000. Need to see if a strong follow-through rise is happening for the rest of the week or not.

DAX (18591.85, -0.83%) has declined below 18650. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag it down to 18400-18300. That in turn might pose a threat for our bullish view of seeing 19500 on the upside. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (25198.70, -0.32%) is sustaining well above 25000 and had recovered well from the low of 25083.80 yesterday. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 25500-25600 before a reversal happens. Only a break below the 25000-24900 support zone will negate our bullish view.

Nikkei (36898.00, -0.40%) fell to a low of 36359.23 and has bounced back from there. Support at 36000 and Resistance at 38000 might hold for a while.

Shanghai (2785.01, +0.03%) sustains above the support at 2780-2775. While the support holds, a rise towards 2850 could be seen. Only a decisive break below 2775, if seen, can target 2700.

Brent and WTI can bounce back while above the support at $ 72 and $ 66/65 respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper have to overcome their resistances overhead to become bullish or else they could fall further. Natural gas looks ranged between 2.3-2.0.

Brent ($ 72.99) sustains above the support at $ 72. While above $ 72, a rise towards $ 74-75 could be possible. Thereafter a rise past $ 75 could be bullish towards $ 78. In case it breaks below $ 72, a fall towards $ 65-62 would come into picture.

WTI ($ 69.50) has recovered slightly from a low of $ 68.83. Downside might be limited to $ 66-65. While above $ 66-65, a rise towards $ 71-72 could be seen. If it happens to break below $ 65, then it would be bearish towards $ 62 to $ 60.

Gold (2528.40) is holding well above the support at 2500 but failure to rise past 2550 can drag it down towards 2450.

Silver (28.73) has bounced back after testing a low of 28.11. It has to rise past 29 to become bullish towards 29.50-30.00. Else a fall towards 27 cannot be ruled out.

Copper (4.0925) trades below 4.1. A fall towards 4.0-3.9 cannot be ruled out while it stays below 4.2. A break above 4.2 is needed to become bullish towards 4.4.

Natural Gas (2.1380) indeed rose to 2.27 yesterday in line with expectations for a rise towards 2.3 and has fallen back sharply from there to trade below 2.15. A range of 2.3-2.0 may continue to hold for a while.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 4.61 …Previous 5.59

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.3%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 136K …Previous 122K

Data on Yesterday
———————-
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn – … Expected 48.7 … Previous -19.5 …Actual -30.8

1:30 07:00 AU GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.2%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.8 … Expected 60.4 … Previous 60.3 …Actual 60.9

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -75.0 … Expected -78.4 … Previous -73.0 …Actual -78.8

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
Expn – … Expected 4.25% … Previous 4.50% … Actual 4.25%