The Dollar Index has dipped slightly from the high of 101.76 but may soon rise towards 102. The Euro has scope to fall towards 1.10. USDJPY and EURJPY fell below 143 and 158 respectively and can now be bearish in the near term. Watch price action closely around 0.6650 in Aussie as any break below it can make the pair vulnerable to test 0.66 on the downside, and Pound, if remains below 1.3085, can extend its fall towards 1.30-1.2950. USDCNY has dipped slightly and could trade within 7.08-7.12/14 region for sometime. EURINR is likely to fall towards 92.50-92 in the near term while below 93. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.80/85 and 84.00. Important to watch would be US CPI release today and ECB policy meeting tomorrow.

Dollar Index (101.503) declined a bit from the high of 101.76 yesterday. For now, we are retaining our view of seeing a rise to 102 in the next few sessions. Watch US CPI data release scheduled today. An immediate range of 100.50-102 is likely to hold for the near term.

EURUSD (1.1033) is nearing 1.10 on the downside. US CPI scheduled today and ECB policy meeting tomorrow will be important to watch as to whether the pair rises back from 1.10 or extends the fall to 1.0950 in the coming sessions. While market expects a rate cut by the ECB tomorrow, it may alternately also keep rates unchanged looking at the falling inflation rates almost nearing to their 2% target and if it would want to cut rates after an initial rate cut by the FED. Euro could remain volatile in the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (141.83) observed a high of 143.71 before coming down. EURJPY (156.49) on the other hand failed to rise past 159 and reversed from 158.64 itself. Further, if the fall continues, the fall can extend to 140 and 156 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1159) has dipped slightly below 7.12. It will be important for the pair to rise above 7.14 to turn bullish for the medium term. Else, it can fall back towards 7.10 or lower. Overall, we expect the downside to be limited to support at 7.08 for now and hold a near-term range of 7.08-7.14.

Aussie (0.6655) can fall towards 0.66 in the near term, on a confirmed break below 0.6650 while Pound (1.3088) needs to sustain above 1.3085 to move up towards 1.31+ else it can become vulnerable to test 1.30-1.2950 soon.

USDINR (83.9538) may continue trade within 84.00-83.85/80 region for the near term.

EURINR (92.6584) appears bearish to 92.50-92 in the near term while below 93.

The US Treasury yields are heading down towards our target level. The bearish outlook is intact, and any intermediate bounce could be short lived. The US CPI data release today will be important to watch. A lower inflation number will strengthen the case for a rate cut next week and will drag the yields lower. The German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our bearish view. There is room to fall more. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow will be a key event to watch. The Indian 10Yr GoI is inching down slowly. The bias remains bearish to break the immediate support and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (3.64%) and the 30Yr (3.96%) yields are heading down towards 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) in line with our expectation. Any intermediate bounce could be short-lived. Resistances are at 3.8% and 4% (10Yr) and 4.1% and 4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.13%) and the 30Yr (2.40%) yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact to see 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) while below 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8510%) looks stable and seems to be inching down slowly. While below 6.86%, the view is bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei have fallen back failing to sustain the bounce seen on Monday. Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei will remain vulnerable to see a further fall while below the resistance at 41000, 18650 and 37000. Nifty has extended the bounce further but needs a decisive break above 25200 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Shanghai is heading down towards 2700 in line with expectation. We need to see if it bounce back from there or not.

Dow (40736.96, -0.23%) closed lower but had made a good bounce from the intraday low of 40417. As mentioned yesterday, a sustained rise above 41000 is needed to become bullish for a rise to 42000 again. Else, the danger of the fall to 40000-39500 will remain alive.

DAX (18265.92, -0.96%) has come down, failing to sustain Monday’s bounce. That keeps intact the bearish view of seeing 18000-17500 on the downside.

Nifty (25041.10, +0.42%) has managed to close above 25000. A decisive rise above 25100-25200 can strengthen the momentum and clear the way for a rise to 25500. A fall below 24850 can increase the danger of the fall to 24500.

Nikkei (35880.50, -0.83%) has fallen back after testing a high of 36537. Resistance is now at 36500 and then at 37000. While the resistance holds, a fall towards 35000-34000 cannot be ruled out.

Shanghai (2729.17, -0.55%) is heading down towards 2700 as expected. We need to see if it bounces back from 2700 or extends the fall towards 2680-2650.

Crude prices fell sharply on Tuesday after OPEC+ revised down its oil demand outlook for 2024 (from 2.11 to 2.03 million bpd now) and 2025 (from 1.78 to 1.74 million bpd now). Gold and Silver have inched up further within their range but Copper looks mixed. Gold has scope to break above 2550 and target 2600-2610. Silver can rise towards 29.50. Natural Gas has bounced back above 2.20 and remains bullish to see a break on the upper end of the 2.0-2.3 range. Key Focus is on the US CPI today. A lower than expected figure could be bullish for Metals.

Brent ($ 69.75) has fallen sharply, breaking below the support at $ 70. While this break sustains, a further fall to $ 65 could be seen.

WTI ($ 66.32) has fallen sharply towards the support at $ 65. Failure to bounce back from $ 65 would be vulnerable to see a further dip to $ 60.

Gold (2547.40) has risen towards the upper end of the 2500-2550 range. As long as it holds above 2500-2450, chances are high for it to break above 2550 and rise towards 2600-2610.

Silver (28.84) is holding well above 28 and has moved up towards 29. A further rise towards 29.50 might be seen which is the upper end of the 28-29.50 range. In case a break above 29.50, if seen, can extend the rise to 30.

Copper (4.1190) looks mixed and ranged between 4.00-4.20. Support is at 4.00 and then at 3.90. While above these, there could be chances of seeing a break above the upper end of the range and rise towards 4.4 in the coming days.

Natural Gas (2.23) has bounced back above 2.20 after testing a low of 2.1250. The 2.0-2.3 range remains intact. Bias is positive to see a break above 2.3 and rise towards 2.4-2.5 in the coming sessions.

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected -18.0 GBP(Bln) …Previous-18.9 GBP(Bln)

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
…kshitij Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.2% …previous 0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
————-
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
…kshitij Expn 4.1% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 4.2 % …Actual 4.1%