The Dollar index needs to see a rise past 101 to turn bullish towards 102 in the coming sessions while Euro can trade within 1.1060-1.12. USDJPY and EURJPY can test 145/146 and 162 in the near term. Aussie needs to see a rise past 0.6850, else may fall back towards 0.67/66. The pound could remain ranged between 1.31-1.33/34 for the near term. USDCNY has immediate support around 7.0250, a bounce from where can negate a fall to 7.00 or lower in the coming sessions. EURINR could trade within 92-94 region for a few sessions. USDINR may have some room to test 83.30/35 but there could be interim support at 83.40. However, it may rise towards 83.60 by end of the week.

The Dollar Index (100.821) tested 100.40 on Friday before recovering from there. A decisive break past 101 will be needed to head towards the upper end of its immediate range of 100.50-102. Only a strong break below 100.5/100 can bring 99.50 into the picture. For now, the 100.50-102 range is likely to remain intact.

EURUSD (1.1158) is oscillating near the potential reversal level of 1.12, a break past which would keep the bullishness intact and extend the rise to 1.1250 in the near term. Going ahead, the pair could trade between 1.1060-1.12/1.1250. However, in the coming weeks, we may have room upto 1.13-1.1350 on the upside.

The BOJ on Friday, kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. The Dollar-Yen (144.37) and the EURJPY (161.11) have room to test 145-146 and 161.50-162 respectively in the coming sessions. Thereafter, we need to observe the price action closely to see whether the rise extends further.

USDCNY (7.0480) observed a low of 7.0430 before closing slightly higher on Friday. Immediate support can be seen near 7.0250, which needs to hold and produce a bounce back towards 7.08+. Else, it can fall and extend towards 7.00 or lower in the near term.

Aussie (0.6814) has been holding well below the resistance near 0.6840/50. A break above this level is required for the Aussie to turn bullish towards 0.69/70, or it can decline back towards 0.67/66. Watch price action near current levels in the next 2-3 sessions.

Pound (1.3309) has sustained well above 1.33. A test of 1.34 looks likely if the rise sustains. Note, the immediate downside could be limited to 1.31.

USDINR (83.5675) fell sharply last week and could limit its fall to 83.40 with a maximum possible extension to 83.35/30 in the near term. Our preference is to see a bounce back this week towards 83.60/80 levels if 83.40 manages to hold as immediate support. Else, a fall to 83.35/30, if seen, may allow to expect a range of 83.30-83.60 to hold for the week. On the NDF, the pair trades at 83.43/44 just now, lower than the Friday OTC market low of 83.4775.

EURINR (93.1505) is likely to trade within 92-94 region for the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back again on Friday. Resistances are ahead to cap the upside and trigger a fall again. Overall, the downtrend is still intact, and the yields can fall more. The German yields are on a corrective rise. There is room to rise further from here to test their resistances. Thereafter the downtrend can resume. The 10Yr GoI remains bearish for a fall.

The US 10Yr (3.74%) and the 30Yr (4.08%) yields have risen back again. The resistances at 3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) are likely to cap the upside and keep the downtrend intact for a fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside.

The German 10Yr (2.20%) remains stable while the 30Yr (2.50%) yields remain stable. Any further rise from here will be restricted to 2.3%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr). The broader trend is down, and the yields can fall back to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) eventually.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7626%) has bounced from a low of 6.7441%. The view remains bearish to see 6.7% on the downside and then a bounce back.

Dow Jones sustains higher and could target 42700-42750 while it remains above 41750. DAX has fallen sharply last Friday failing to rise past 19000 but support is seen near 18600 which may hold and lead to a bounce back from there. Nifty continues to rise and can target 26000-26200. Shanghai looks bullish towards 2800.

Dow (42063.36, +0.09%) is oscillating around 42000. While above 41750, the outlook is bullish to see rise to 42700-42750. A break above 42200 can trigger this rise.

DAX (18720.01, -1.49%) has come down sharply. But support is at 18600. While that holds, the outlook will remain bullish to see 19600-19700 on the upside.

Nifty (25790.95, +1.48%) surged to a high of 25849 on Friday. With support at 25500, Nifty can breach the immediate resistance at 25900 and rise to 26000-26200.

Nikkei (37723.91) is closed today. We need to see if it breaks above the resistance at 38000 and rise towards 39000 or fall back towards 37500-37000. It is a wait and watch.

Shanghai (2748.45, +0.43%) has risen back towards 2750. View remains the same to see a break above 2750 and rise towards 2775-2800.

Brent and WTI can rise towards $ 77 and $ 74-75 respectively. Gold might face resistance at 2650 but our broader view will remain bullish to see an eventual break above it and to target new highs. We need to see if that breaks happen just now or after some consolidation. Silver has scope to rise further while above 31-30. Copper has dipped slightly but downside seems limited to 4.25-4.20. Natural Gas has risen well towards 2.5 as expected and has room to rise further from here.

Brent ($ 74.97) is attempting to break $ 75. It might rise towards $ 77.

WTI ($ 71.50) is heading up towards $ 72. It may break above $ 72 and $ 74-75.

Gold (2644.40) has risen to 2651 so far in line with our expectation to see a rise towards 2650. The level of 2650 is an immediate resistance. Broader view is bullish to see an eventual break above it and rise towards 2670-2700. Whether the break happens now or after some consolidation between 2650-2600 is need to be seen.

Silver (31.47) has managed to sustain above 31. A rise towards 32.00-32.50 looks possible in the near term while it sustains above 31-30.

Copper (4.34) rose to 4.39 last Friday and has dipped a bit from there. View remains the same to see a rise towards 4.5 or higher. Downside seems limited to 4.25-4.20.

As expected, Natural Gas (2.4770) has risen towards 2.5. A further rise towards 2.8-3.0 could be seen in the coming days.

No major data release Today.

DATA FRIDAY:-
————–
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -10 …Expected -13 …Previous -13 … Actual – 20

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 2.9 …Expected 2.8 …Previous 2.7 … Actual 3.0

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected 0.25% …Previous 0.25% … Actual 0.25%