The Dollar Index is trading within the immediate range of 100.25-101.50/75 which can hold for a while. Watch US PCE and Personal income data release scheduled today. Euro is trading higher within the range of 1.11-1.12, but can extend the fall towards 1.1050-1.10 in the medium term. USDJPY and EURJPY need to see a rise past 146 and 163-164 respectively to make the outlook bullish in the near term. Else, both the pairs are likely to limit the ongoing rise to the mentioned levels and can start coming off. Aussie and Pound are likely to trade within 0.68-0.69 and 1.3440-1.33 respectively for the next few sessions. USDCNY tested 7 before bouncing back from there. Need to see whether it sustains above 7 and rises higher or breaks below it. EURINR could trade within 92-94 region for a few sessions. USDINR can see a dip towards the lower end of its range of 83.70/80-83.40/50.

Dollar Index (100.676) tested 100.97 before falling back towards 100.48. An immediate range of 100.20-101.50 (revised from earlier 100.50-102) can hold for some time. The US PCE and Personal Income data release is scheduled for today.

EURUSD (1.1169) is moving higher within the immediate range of 1.11-1.12. This range could hold for a few sessions. There could be some scope to test 1.1050-1.10 but that would come only on a break below 1.11.

The Dollar-Yen (145.07) and the EURJPY (162.02) attempted to rise past our targets of 145 and 162 respectively but could not sustain and started to decline from 145.57 and 162.57 respectively. The Pairs will necessarily need to sustain above immediate resistance at 146 and 164 respectively to make the outlook further bullish. Otherwise, while the mentioned resistances hold, the prices can fall back from here in the near term.

USDCNY (7.0137) tested 7 before recovering a bit from there. Now we need to see whether the bounce sustains and rises or the pair falls below 7 to head towards 6.97/6.94.

Aussie (0.6876) and Pound (1.3393) are likely to be trade within 0.68-0.69 and 1.3440-1.33 respectively for the next few sessions. Note that 0.6910/15 and 1.3440 are immediate resistances on both pairs just now.

USDINR (83.6475) observed a high of 83.7175 yesterday before coming down. Overall, the range of 83.70-83.40 can hold for some time. Only a break above 83.70, in the medium term will pave the way for a further rise towards 83.80/85.

EURINR (93.4051) is trading higher within its immediate range of 92-94 which may persist in the near term.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. However, there is not much room left on the upside as resistances are ahead. We expect the resistance to hold and drag the yields lower again and keep the downtrend intact. The US PCE (2.5% YoY in August) data release today will be important to watch. A fall in PCE from here can be negative for the yields. The German yields are inching up. There is room to rise further to test their resistances before the broader downtrend resumes. The 10Yr GoI has tested its key support and can bounce back from here going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.79%) and the 30Yr (4.13%) yields sustain higher. The resistance at 3.8%-3.85% (10Yr) and 4.15%-4.2% (30Yr) can cap the upside and trigger a reversal again. While these resistances hold, the broader downtrend is intact, and the yields can fall to 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.18%) and the 30Yr (2.50%) yields are continuing to inch up. We expect the upside to be capped at 2.2%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr). The yields can reverse lower again and resume the downtrend targeting 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7178%) touched a low of 6.7051% and has bounced. While the support at 6.7% holds, the yield can rise back to 6.75%-6.8% in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones is stuck in a narrow range of 41800-42300 but bias is bullish to see a break on the upside of the range while it remains above 41750-41700. DAX has broken above the upper end of the range and looks bullish to target further upside. Nifty has indeed risen to 26200 but needs a strong follow-through rise from here to become further bullish and to negate the danger of seeing a corrective fall from here. Nikkei continues to rise and can target 39500-40000. Shanghai has crucial resistance ahead which if holds can lead to a corrective fall.

Dow (42175.11, +0.62%) is stuck in between 41800 and 42300 now. While above 41700, the bias is bullish to breach 42300 and rise to 42700-42750.

DAX (19238.36, +1.69%) has surged above 19100. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 19700-19800 on the upside.

The rise to 26200 on the Nifty (26,216.05, +0.81%) has happened. Failure to get a strong follow-through rise from here can trigger a corrective fall to 26000-25800 before the uptrend resumes targeting 26500-27000.

Nikkei (39190.90) continue to rise and tested a high of 39297.59 so far. A further rise towards 39500-40000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3030.78, +0.99%) rose to test a high of 3067.41 before coming off from there. Crucial resistance is seen at 3100 which may or may not be tested. While below 3100, a fallback towards 3000 could be seen.

Crude prices and Natural Gas remains bearish for the near term. Gold and Silver needs to rise past 2700 and 33 to strengthen the bullish momentum or else could fallback. Copper has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 4.6 and if the break sustains a further rise towards 4.7-4.8 could be seen.

Brent ($ 70.71) has indeed fallen towards $ 70 and may come down further to $ 68-67.

WTI ($ 67.28) has fallen towards $ 67 as expected. A further fall to $ 65-64 looks possible from here.

Gold (2691.30) continues to rise and tested a high of 2709 so far. A decisive break above 2700, if seen, could lead to a rise towards 2800. Failure to do so could drag Gold down to 2670-2650.

Silver (32.09) rose to test a high of 33.03 before coming down a bit from there. A decisive break above 33 is needed to become further bullish towards 34. Else there could be chances of seeing a fall towards 31.50.

Copper (4.6190) has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 4.60. While this break sustains, a further rise towards 4.7-4.8 could be seen.

Natural Gas (2.7230) has declined below 2.75. A further fall to 2.6 looks possible while below 2.9-3.0.

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.9 …Expected 96.5 …Previous 96.6

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.5 …Expected 0.4 …Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index
Expn 0.1 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US PCE
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn- …Expected 0.1 …Previous 0.0

DATA YESTERDAY:-
————–
8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 1.00% …Previous 1.25% … Actual 1.00%

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn – …Expected -2.7% …Previous 9.9% … Actual 0.0%

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 2.9% …Previous 2.9% … Actual 3.0%