The Dollar Index above 102.50, looks bullish towards 104 and higher. The Euro is again nearing the support around 1.09. Need to see whether 1.09 holds or extends the fall further. The USDJPY and EURJPY, while above 146 and 161.50, have a fair chance of rising towards 150-152 and 164 respectively in the coming sessions. Aussie looks stable above 0.67 for now, but a further rise past 0.68-0.6850 will be needed to make the outlook bullish again. The pound either needs to rise past 1.31 or break below 1.30 to get further directional clarity. EURINR, below 92.50-92, looks bearish to 91. USDINR has a fair chance of testing 84.10/12 on the upside while sustaining above 83.90/80.

Dollar Index (103.045) has risen past 103. Immediate support is spotted around 102.50, above which the overall view remains bullish towards 104-106 for the near term.

EURUSD (1.0922) is again nearing the support around 1.09. Watch price action closely around the level of 1.09 to see whether it holds or extends the fall towards 1.08.

Dollar-Yen (149.21) and the EURJPY (162.99) can rise to 150-152 and 164 respectively while they sustain above the Immediate supports at 146 and 161.50 respectively.

China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an indicated that there is “ample room” for increasing fiscal stimulus but did not announce a major new stimulus package. USDCNY (7.0763) appears a bit uncertain for now. A decisive break past 7.10 can take it higher to 7.10-7.1250. Else, If Yuan appreciates, USDCNY can fall back towards 7.05 to 7.00 or even lower.

Aussie (0.6741) needs a rise past 0.68-0.6850 to make the outlook bullish again. Note, any break below 0.67 if seen, can make it vulnerable to see a fall towards 0.66-0.65 in the medium term.

Pound (1.3047) will need to see either a rise past 1.31 or a fall below 1.30 to get further directional clarity. A sustained rise past 1.31 can take it towards 1.32 or higher in the near term with immediate downside limited to 1.30-1.29.

USDINR (84.0480) on the NDF has risen past 84. While it remains above 83.80/90, a rise towards 83.10/12 can be seen in the coming sessions. Note 84.12 can act as a decent resistance in the very near term.

EURINR (91.8560) trades below 92.50-92 and while it remains below 92, the overall view remains bearish towards 91 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen and are poised at their resistance. A follow-through rise from here can see an extended rise. Thereafter the expected reversal can happen. The German yields are managing to sustain higher. The bias is positive. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the expected range. The bias is positive to break this range on the upside and rise eventually going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.1%) and the 30Yr (4.41%) yields have risen back and are at the resistance at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). A rise from here can take them up to 4.2% and 4.5% and will delay the expected fall to 3.8% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.26%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields remain higher and stable. While above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) the chances are high for a rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). It is a wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7914%) is moving up within the 6.7% and 6.85% range. Bias is bullish to break 6.85% and rise to 7% over the medium term.

The Dow Jones surged above 42,800 following strong Q3 earnings from major banks. The DAX has maintained bullishness above the support at 19,150 and climbed significantly above 19,300. In contrast, the Nifty remains weak, lacking momentum for an upward move. Need to watch price action near 24800-25000. Nikkei seems to sustain above 39,500. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite is trading well below its resistance at 3,300, hovering near its support zone of 3,200–3,180.

Dow (42863.86, +0.97%) has risen sharply. This keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 43000-43200 on the upside. Thereafter, a short-lived correction to 42500 is possible before a rise to 44000 happens.

DAX (19373.83, +0.85%) remains bullish to see a rise to 19800-20000. Support is in the 19200-19000 region.

Nifty (24964.25, -0.14%) is inching down and can revisit 24800. A rise thereafter will keep alive the bullish view of seeing 25500 on the upside. A break below 24800 can take it down to 24400-24300. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (39605.73, +0.57%) is closed today on account of Sports Day and will resume trading tomorrow. While it holds above 39500, a rise towards 40K looks possible. Thereafter, a rise past 40K would bring the 41K into the picture. Failure to rise past 40K, would bring the index down to 39K-38K.

Shanghai (3222.6860, +0.14%) is holding well below 3300, and a test of the support near 3200/3180 looks likely. While the support holds, it could trade within the range of 3200-3180 to 3400 for a few sessions before moving higher. Failure to hold the support would bring the index down to 3050 eventually.

Brent & WTI need to break above $ 79 and $ 75 to see a rise towards $ 80-82 and $ 78 respectively in the near term. Else they can fall back to their respective support levels. Gold looks ranged between 2700-2620 for the near term until a breakout on either side takes place. Silver, Copper and Natural Gas can fall towards 30.5-30.0, 4.30-4.25 and 2.5 respectively in the near term.

Brent ($ 77.87) opened lower today at $ 78.55 after Friday’s close of $ 79.04. A sustained break above $ 79 is needed to see a rise towards $ 80-82 in the near term. Else, while below $ 79 it can fall towards $ 77-75.

WTI ($ 74.45) remained stable near $ 75 on Friday. It needs to rise above $ 75 to test resistance near $ 78. Else, it can fall back to $ 70-68 on the downside. A broad range of $ 78-68 is expected to hold for some time.

Gold (2662.70) rose to $ 2679 on Friday. Immediate resistance is at $ 2700 below which a broad range of $ 2700-2620 can hold for some time.

Silver (31.31) tested a high of 31.85 on Friday but has fallen back below 31.5 today. As long as 31.5 holds, a corrective fall to its immediate support at 30.5-30.0 can take place in the near term before a rise to 32.5-33.0 is seen eventually.

Copper (4.4480) tested the interim resistance at 4.49 on Friday. While 4.5 holds, the view remains bearish towards 4.30-4.25 for the near term. Alternatively, a break above 4.50 can take it back towards 4.6-4.70. Watch price action at current levels.

Natural Gas (2.59) rose to 2.7270 on Friday but has moved lower today. Immediate support is at 2.5 which can be tested in the near term before a bounce back to 2.8-2.9 is seen eventually.

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – … Expected 4.6 … Previous 4.5

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – … Expected 2.5 … Previous 2.1

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn 2.61% … Expected 0.70% … Previous 1.31%

DATA ON FRIDAY:-
————–
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -20.7 … Expected -19.2 … Previous -18.9 …Actual -15.1

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 4.1% … Expected – … Previous 4.7% …Actual -0.1%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 3.99 … Expected – … Previous 3.65

12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn – … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.0%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn – … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – … Expected 33.1K … Previous 22.1K …Actual 46.7K