The Dollar Index trades lower while the Euro can rise towards 1.09 before pausing. USDJPY and EURJPY could dip slightly to 148.80 and 161.80 in the very near term. Aussie could have a limited upside to 0.68 for now while Pound needs to break above 1.31 to rise further. USDCNY can trade within 7.1240-7.10 with a possible dip to 7.08. USDINR is likely to remain ranged within 84.12-83.98 region. EURINR needs to break above 91.50 to take it higher towards 92 else can come off towards 91 or lower.

Dollar Index (103.455) is holding below last week’s high of 103.874 and seems to be coming off slowly towards 103. If the fall is limited to 103, it can rise back towards 104 and higher eventually. Watch price action while above 103.

EURUSD (1.0865) is holding above immediate support at 1.08 and can test 1.09 before falling back towards 1.08 or lower in the medium term. Failure to fall from 1.09 can lead to a further rise to 1.0950-1.10. Watch price action near 1.09.

Dollar-Yen (149.23) and EURJPY (162.15) have dipped as the Dollar Index has dipped slightly. Both pairs can head towards 148.8 and 161.80 initially, a break below which can take them down further towards 148 and 161 respectively. Immediate upside is likely to hold at 150 and 163/164 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1036) fell to test 7.1004 on Friday and has slightly risen now. While below 7.1240, there is some scope for a test of 7.08 before resuming to rise higher. Watch price action near current levels.

Aussie (0.6716) is headed towards 0.6750-0.68 while above 0.6650. Thereafter it can fall towards 0.6650-0.66 in the medium term. Overall the broad range of 0.66-0.68 continues to hold for now.

Pound (1.3049) could rise to 1.31 before falling towards 1.2950-1.29. A break above 1.31, if seen can take it higher towards 1.32.

USDINR (84.0775) tested 84.0775 on Friday. We continue to look at 83.98-84.12 range to hold for the very near term.

EURINR (91.3368) is trading above 91 and needs to move higher above 91.50 to test 92 in the coming sessions. Otherwise, failure to break above 91.50 could take it back towards 91. Overall the pair could trade above 91 for some time.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. They still keep alive the chances of seeing an extended rise before reversing lower to resume the downtrend. Only a fall below the immediate support will negate this rise. The German yields will need a strong follow-through rise from here to strengthen the bullish case to move higher. Else they can fall back again. It is a wait and watch situation. The Indian 10Yr GoI is moving up within the broad range. The bias is bullish to break the range on the upside and move higher eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and the 30Yr (4.40%) yields sustain higher. While above 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr), the chances are still alive to see an extended rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr). The yields have to fall below 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) to negate that rise and indicate that the broader downtrend has resumed.

The German 10Yr (2.18%) and the 30Yr (2.50%) yields have dipped again. A strong follow-through rise above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) is needed to see the rise to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 2% (10Yr) and 2.3% (30Yr). It is a wait and watch situation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8193%) has risen above 6.8% and can now move towards the upper end of its broad 6.7%- 6.85% range. The bias is bullish to breach 6.85% and rise to 7% eventually in the coming weeks.

The Dow Jones remains stable above 43200, maintaining a bullish outlook with potential to reach 44000. The DAX has advanced beyond 19650 and is expected to continue its rally towards of 19800-20000. Nifty has recovered well from a low of 24567, climbing above 24800 on Friday. A decisive break above 25000 is necessary to mitigate downside risks. Nikkei continues to oscillate around 39000 and currently trades above it. While it holds above 39000, an attempt to rise towards 39500-40000 can be seen. Shanghai, on Friday attempted to rise past 3300 to a high of 3310 but failed to sustain there and retraced back to the sideways range of 3200-3300.

The Dow (43275.91, +0.09%) continues to move up. It can test 43500 now. A corrective fall from there to 43000-42800 is a possibility before the rise to 44000 happens.

DAX (19657.37, +0.38%) has risen further. Our bullish view of seeing 19800-20000 on the upside remains intact.

Nifty (24,854.05, +0.42%) has risen back sharply from the low of 24,567. It has to sustain above 24,650 and get a strong follow-through rise from here to move up to 25,200 and higher. Else it can fall back to 24500-24300 in the coming days. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (39111.58, +0.33%) is trading within the sideways range of 38000-40000 and currently holding above 39000. While it sustains above 39000, a rise towards 39500-40000 looks possible. However, a break below 39000 could trigger a decline toward the key support at 38,000.

Shanghai (3275.02, +0.41%) is trading within the range of 3200-3300 and a test of the upper boundary around 3300 looks possible for the near term. If the resistance holds, the index could face a pullback to 3200. Conversely, a sustained rise past 3300 would open the door for a move higher towards 3400.

China’s weak crude demand has weighed on Crude oil prices. Also, crude is under pressure on speculation that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Sinwar could lead to a cease-fire in Gaza that eases Middle East tensions. Immediate support levels need to break on the crude prices to make them bearish or else a bounce back to $ 75-76 on Brent and $ 70-72 on WTI can be expected in the near term. Gold and Silver have moved up sharply. Near term looks bullish towards $ 2750-2770 and $ 34.5-35.0 respectively. Copper can range between 4.50-4.30/25 for some time. Natural Gas looks bearish towards 2.2-2.0.

Brent ($ 73.23) tested a low of $ 72.5 before closing slightly higher at $ 73.06 on Friday as Chinese energy demand weakens. While the immediate support at $ 71 holds, a bounce back towards $ 75-76 is expected for the near term. A sustained break below $ 70/68 is needed for bearishness to kick in.

WTI ($ 68.87) fell to a low of $ 68.17 on Friday. Immediate support is at $ 68.0-67.5 which if holds, a bounce back towards $ 70-72 can be seen in the near term.

Gold $ 2744.70) continues to move up and can extend the rise further towards $ 2750-2770 in the near term.

Silver (34.26) surged above our expected levels and tested a high of 33.97 on Friday before closing lower at 33.23 for the week, slightly below its immediate resistance at 33.5. It has now opened higher with a gap at 33.90 and is currently trading above 34. While above 33.5, it can be bullish towards 34.5-35.0 or even higher to 36 in the upcoming weeks.

Copper (4.4210) has risen above 4.4 as expected. An immediate range of 4.5-4.30/25 can hold for some time.

Natural Gas (2.2550) plunged to 2.24 on Friday weighed by the outlook of above-normal US temperatures that is likely to reduce heating demand for nat-gas. The price can extend the fall further towards 2.2-2.0 in the near term.

No major data release today.

DATA ON FRIDAY:
—————
23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 3.0 … Expected 2.3 … Previous 3.0 …Actual 2.5

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – … Expected 4.6 … Previous 4.5 …Actual 5.4

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – … Expected 2.5 … Previous 2.1 …Actual 3.2

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1286K … Expected 1350K … Previous 1361K …Actual 1354K