The Dollar Index is gradually rising and if sustained can test 105-105.50 in the near term while the Euro, if falls further can test 1.0770 before attempting to rise back. USDJPY and EURJPY are nearing our mentioned targets of 152 and 164 respectively. Aussie and Pound are likely to remain ranged within 0.66-0.68 and 1.2950-1.3150 region respectively. USDCNY, above 7.1240 can target 7.1436 or even 7.1751 in the near term. USDINR is likely to remain ranged within 83.98-84.12 region. EURINR continues to trade below 91 and failure to rise past it can make it vulnerable to test 90.50-90 in the near term. Watch out for US Existing Home Sales data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.17) is gradually rising higher in line with our view and while it sustains, it can soon test 105-105.50 in the near term. Watch out for US Existing Home sales data release today. We expect the downside to be limited to 103.

EURUSD (1.0796) has slipped below 1.08. Immediate support is around 1.0770 region. While the support holds, the view remains biased to see a bounce back towards 1.085-1.09 in the coming sessions. Only a decisive break below 1.0770 if seen, can negate the rise and make the outlook further bearish to 1.07 or even lower.

Dollar-Yen (151.71) and EURJPY (163.93) are nearing towards our mentioned targets of 152 and 164 respectively. We need to observe the price action around current levels to see whether the rise extends further or I both the pairs start coming down towards 148 and 161 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1305) observed a gap up opening at 7.1315 today. While the rise sustains above 7.1240, 7.1436 and 7.1751 are the two upside targets in the near term.

Aussie (0.6681) has recovered well from yesterday’s low of 0.6650. Overall, the broad range of 0.66-0.68 continues to hold for now.

Pound (1.2987) tested 1.2944 in line with our view of testing 1.2950 on the downside, before recovering from there. Overall, a range of 1.2950-1.3150 can hold for some time.

USDINR (84.0660) is slowly inching up higher, and can rise towards 84.10-84.12 while sustaining above 84-84.02. We continue to look at the 83.98-84.12 range to hold for the very near term.

While the EURINR (90.8513) trades below 91, and can be vulnerable to test 90.50-90 on the downside. The Cross needs to rise past 91 again to move higher towards 91.50-92.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up. The Treasury yields are seeing an extended rise now. They have room to move up further now before resuming the broad downtrend. The German yields are keeping intact our bullish view and can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI is turning down from the upper end of its broad range. The sideways range is intact now. Bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and the 30Yr (4.51%) yields have risen further. While they sustain above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.5% (30Yr), there are good chances to see an extended rise to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). Thereafter a reversal to 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) and lower is possible.

The German 10Yr (2.32%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) continues to move up. Our bullish view to see 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) on the upside remains intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8220%) has come down after testing 6.85%. For now, the broad 6.7%-6.85% range is intact. A fall within the range to 6.8% is possible now. Eventually, the yield can break above 6.85% and a rise to 7% over the medium-term.

The Dow Jones tested the initial support level at 42700 as anticipated, reaching a low of 42718 before recovering to levels above 42900. While the index holds above strong support at 42500, a rise towards 43400, with the potential to reach 44000, remains likely. Meanwhile, DAX marked an intra-high of 19591 before sharply coming down and testing the support of 19400. A bullish outlook prevails with targets of 19,800-20,000 while above the 19200. On the other hand, Nifty broke below the support of 24700 and sharply fell to 24400. View could turn bullish again while above support at 24200. Nikkei held firm below 38500, and the view remains bearish to test support of 38000 and 37500. Shanghai has risen above 3300, but we need to see whether it holds above 3300 or crawls back into the range of 3300-3200.

The Dow (42924.89, -0.02%) fell towards 42700 and has bounced back. Strong support is at 42500. While that holds, the Dow can rise back above 43000 again. That will keep the bullish view intact to see 44000.

DAX (19421.91, -0.20%) is coming down. It can test 19200 and then resume the uptrend targeting 19800-20000.

Nifty (24,472.10, -1.25%) has come down into the 24500-24300 region. 24200 is a crucial support. While that holds, the chances of rising back to 24800-25000 again will remain alive. A fall below 24200-24000 will bring in the danger of an extended fall to 23500-23000.

Nikkei (38300.76, -0.29%) failed to sustain above 38500. As long as it remains below this level, a decline towards the support of 38000–37500 is likely before any potential recovery. Alternatively, if the index holds above 38200, a bounce from this level may occur.

Shanghai (3301.45, +0.47%) hovers around the 3,300 mark, leaving the outlook indecisive for now. Close attention should be paid to the price action near 3,300. Failure to sustain above this level could drive the index down to 3,250–3,200. If it sustains above 3,300, it could open the door for a move towards 3,400.

Crude prices surge as China increases Oil import quota by 6%. While below immediate resistance levels on crude prices, we expect a corrective dip to $ 74-72 in Brent and $ 70-68 in WTI for the near term. Gold and Silver have tested their immediate resistance levels and while these levels hold, a fall to $ 2720-2700 and 34.5-34.0 respectively can be seen in the near term. Copper looks ranged between 4.5-4.30/25 for some time. Natural gas can target 2.4-2.5 while above 2.3.

Brent ($ 75.92) rose sharply to 76.32 yesterday as China’s commerce ministry had announced a raise in its crude oil import quota for private importers by 6% in 2025. The moving average resistance is near 76, while that holds a fall towards 74-72 could take place in the near term before a rise to 78-80 is seen.

WTI ($ 71.63) bounced back sharply to 72.09 and closed slightly lower at 71.74 yesterday. Immediate resistance near 72, while it holds a corrective fall to 70-68 could take place before rising towards 74-76.

Gold $ 2753.70) tested a high of $ 2763.30 yesterday. Immediate resistance can be seen near current levels and while below this a corrective fall to $ 2720-2700 can take place before continuing its up trend towards $ 2800.

Silver (34.71) surged to the upper resistance at 35 as expected. This resistance is expected to hold and push silver back to 34.5-34.0. In the medium term, it can rally higher towards 36-37.

Copper (4.3635) rose slightly to 4.40 yesterday. It can trade within a range of 4.5-4.30/25 for some time.

Natural Gas (2.3010) has dipped back to 2.3 yesterday. While 2.3 holds we retain our view of seeing a rise to 2.4-2.5 in the near term.

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Exp 3778 …Expected 3880 …Previous 3860

13:45 19:15 BOC Meeting
Exp – …Expected 3.8% …Previous 4.25%

DATA ON YESTERDAY:
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No major data released yesterday.