The Dollar Index is coming off and Euro is rising as expected. If the Index falls further, it can test 103-102.50 on the downside whereas, if the Euro sustains its rise, it can head towards 1.0850-1.0900. USDJPY and EURJPY are coming off as expected and can get extended to 148-146 and 161 respectively. Aussie and Pound are likely to remain ranged within 0.66-0.68 and 1.2900-1.3150 region respectively. USDCNY looks a bit uncertain for now. The targets on the upside are 7.1436 and 7.1751 but failure to sustain above current levels can drag it down towards 7.10 or even lower. USDINR is likely to remain ranged within 83.98-84.12 region. EURINR has risen past 91 but a break past 91.50 will be needed to become further bullish. Else a range of 90.50/90-91.50 can hold for a while. Watch the US Durable Goods data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (104.045) is coming off as anticipated yesterday. If the fall continues further, then the Index is likely to test 103-102.50 in the near term. Only a rise past 104.50 if seen, can take it higher to test 105. Watch out for US Durable Goods data release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0825) has bounced well from the support around 1.0765/70 region. While the rise sustains, the pair can head towards 1.0850-1.0900 in the coming sessions. Overall, the view remains bullish above 1.0770-1.0750.

Dollar-Yen (151.75) and EURJPY (164.26) could not sustain their rise and started to decline. Political instability in Japan related to polls showing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose which could impact the BOJ’s rate hike path has supported the fall. If the fall continues further, the pairs can get dragged towards 148-146 (USDJPY) and 161 (EURJPY) respectively.

USDCNY (7.1248) was expected to test 7.10 on the downside but instead it reversed from the low of 7.1110 itself. The outlook appears a bit indecisive in the near term. The targets on the upside could be 7.1436 and 7.1751. At the same time failure to sustain above current levels can drag it towards 7.10 or even lower in the near term.

Aussie (0.6636) is trading near the lower end of its range of 0.66-0.68 but we expect the pair to remain volatile within this broad range for a while.

Pound (1.2972) has risen well within its range of range of 1.2900-1.3150. Still, a break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. Until then, the range can persist for some time.

USDINR (84.0480) traded flat yesterday. For now, we are retaining our view of seeing a gradual rise towards crucial resistance at 84.10-84.12. We continue to look at the 83.98-84.12 range to hold for the very near term.

EURINR (91.0268) seems to have halted the fall around 90.5563. The pair will have to rise past 91.50 to extend its rise further. Else a range of 90.50/90-91.50 can hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields have come down. The 10Yr has support while above which a rise is still possible. But the 30Yr is coming down from a key resistance and can fall from here. It has to rise past that resistance in order to go higher along with the 10Yr. The German yields have dipped but supports are there to limit the downside. The overall bullish view is intact. The yields have room to rise further. The dip in the 10Yr GoI seems to be slowing down. While there is room to move down, a reversal is likely any time. Bias remains positive to see a bullish breakout of its broad range and rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.19%) and the 30Yr (4.46%) yields have dipped below 4.2% and 4.5% respectively. Supports are at 4.1%-4% (10Yr) which can be tested on a further fall from here. But while above 4.1%-4%, the 10Yr can still rise to 4.4%. The 30Yr on the other hand is coming down from a strong resistance (4.5%). It can fall back to 4.3% while below 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.26%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields have come down. While above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) the bullish view is intact to see 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8204%) tested 6.8% as expected and has bounced from the low of 6.8053%. The downmove seems to be slowing down. While there is room to test 6.77%, the yield can reverse higher anytime. We retain our bullish view of seeing a break above 6.85% and a rise to 7% eventually over the medium-term.

The Dow Jones dropped to a low of 42191 before showing some recovery. Key support is seen at 42000–41800 above which we keep intact the possibility of a rise to 44000 eventually. The DAX initially rose to 19555 but lost most of its intraday gains later in the session, though it continues to trade higher. The upside target of 19800-20000 is intact. The Nifty remained flat and closed slightly lower, lacking the momentum to break above 24500. The Nikkei failed to extend gains towards 38500 and slipped below 38000, now heading towards 37600–37500. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite continues to trade in a narrower range of 3250–3300, and could attempt to break above 3300.

The Dow (42374.36, -0.33%) has declined below 42500. A fall to 42000-41800 looks likely. Thereafter we expect the uptrend to resume and keep the chances alive for targeting 44000.

DAX (19443, +0.34%) has risen back. The 19200-19000 support zone is holding well as expected. The uptrend is intact to see a rise to 19800-20000.

Nifty (24,399.40, -0.04%) remained stable around 24400. A test of 24200 looks likely. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or the fall is extending to 24000.

Nikkei (37771.74, -0.97%) failed to rise past 38500 and dropped below 38000. Nikkei can test the level of 37700-37500. While these levels hold, a bounce towards 38000-38500 is likely. Failure to sustain these levels could bring the index down to 36700. Stay out and look for price action around 37700-37500.

Shanghai (3286.1402, +0.17%) trades below 3300. It can hold the narrow range of 3250–3300. A breakout above 3300 is necessary to open the path towards 3400.

Crude prices decline due to the easing of tensions in the middle east and can fall towards their respective support levels in the near term. Gold has risen slightly while Silver has dipped towards its immediate support. The outlook remains the same to see a rise towards 2780-2800 and 34-35 respectively for the near term. Copper can range between 4.5-4.30/25 for some time. Natural Gas has risen sharply and while the immediate resistance near the current level holds, a fall towards 2.8-2.6 can be seen in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained rise can trigger a sharp rise towards 3.5-4.

Brent ($ 74.67) rose to a high of 76.54 but fell back sharply from there to 74 as there are hopes of cease-fire between Israel and Hamas-Hezbollah after US Secretary of State Blinder travelled to Israel for talks. While below 76 it can fall to 73-72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 70.43) tested 72.34 and fell to 69.77 yesterday as expected. It can fall towards 68 in the upcoming sessions while below 72.

Gold $ 2741.40) has risen as expected. It can continue to rise towards our earlier mentioned levels of 2780-2800/2850. It could face some resistance near the upper end of the mentioned range.

Silver (33.78) is hovering near its immediate support at 33.50. While the support holds, we expect a bounce back to 34-35 or even higher to 36 in the near term.

Copper (4.3690) rose to 4.39 yesterday. It can trade within a range of 4.5-4.30/25 for some time.

Natural Gas (3.0280) rose in line with our expectations to 2.5820 yesterday. Today it has opened with a large gap at 3.0280 probably due to colder temperatures in the US that could boost heating demand for the gas. Immediate resistance is seen near current levels which if holds a fall towards 2.8-2.6 can be seen. Else a sustained break above 3 if seen can take it higher towards 3.5-4.0 in the upcoming weeks.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -24.2 … Expected -20.0 … Previous -20.0

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 84.9 … Expected 85.4 … Previous 85.4

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp – … Expected 84.1 … Previous 84.4

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp – … Expected 86.6 … Previous 86.3

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
… Exp – … Expected -1.1% … Previous 0.0%

DATA ON YESTERDAY:
—————
14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 727K … Expected 717K … Previous 716K …Actual 738K