The Dollar Index is off to a good start as it tested 105.70 on the upside before cooling down. The immediate resistance can be seen around the 105.70-106 region below which the range of 106-103 can hold for some time. Euro is nearing our mentioned target of 1.06 which can be possibly tested before attempting to rise back. USDJPY may trade within 155-152/150 while EURJPY needs to rise above current levels to negate the fall to 162. AUDUSD continues to trade lower within the 0.67-0.65 region. Pound and EURINR have slipped below 1.29 and 90 respectively. A revised range of 1.3150-1.28 in Pound can hold in the near term, but EURINR will have to rise past 91 to negate the fall to 89-88.50. USDCNY is nearing our expected target of 7.22 on the upside. USDINR can head towards 84.50 while above 84.30. Watch out for the IN CPI & IIP release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (105.570) witnessed a significant rise to the high of 105.70 before cooling down a bit. Market sentiments related to higher tariffs might have supported the rise. Immediate resistance is spotted around the 105.70-106.00 region, below which a revised range of 103-106 can hold in the near term. Only a decisive break past 106 if seen, can make the outlook further bullish.

EURUSD (1.0649) has been coming off as expected. If the fall extends further, a test of 1.06 looks likely before it attempts to bounce back again. A fall below 1.06 is not expected for now.

Dollar-Yen (153.80) seems to be holding well above the support near 152. Overall, the range of 150/152-155 can hold for some time. EURJPY (163.81) looks stable above 163 for now. Still, the fall to 162 cannot be negated until further rise is seen above current levels.

USDCNY (7.2238) has risen sharply on Dollar strength and is nearing our target of 7.22. The upside is likely to be capped at 7.25 and either from 7.22 or testing resistance around 7.25, the pair can fall back in the near term.

Aussie (0.6565) continues to trade lower within its broad range of 0.67-0.65 which can hold in the near term.

Pound (1.2857) has again slipped below the lower end of the mentioned range of 1.3150-1.2900. Still a strong break below 1.28 will be needed to make the outlook further bearish to 1.26 or even lower. Until then, the pair can continue to oscillate within 1.3150-1.2800 region.

USDINR (84.3975) witnessed a high of 84.40 before declining a bit from there. While the support at 84.30 holds, the pair has a fair chance of testing 84.50.

EURINR (89.8506) slipped below 90, contrary to our expectations of seeing a range of 92-90 . It will have to rise back past 90 to make this a false break. Else, if the fall continues further, could be vulnerable to see the lower levels of 89-88.50 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly in the early Asian session today. The US markets were closed yesterday. The bounce is likely to be short-lived as the resistance ahead can cap the upside. View is bearish to see a fall in the coming days. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have come down further. But supports are there to limit the downside and take the yields higher again. Outlook remains bullish. The 10Yr GoI has started to move up from the lower end of the range as expected. It can go up within the range now.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.48%) yields have bounced slightly. While below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) we retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4%-4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.32%) and the 30Yr (2.55%) yields have come down further. Support at 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) are likely to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact to see 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8238%) is rising back as expected from the lower end of its 6.8%-6.88% range. It can now gradually go up towards 6.85%-6.88% in the coming days. Bias is positive to break the range above 6.88% and rise to 6.9% initially and 7% eventually.

The Dow Jones rose to a high of 44486.70 before retracing. We anticipate the resistance at 44500 will cap this rally, likely prompting a pullback toward 42000-41000. The DAX closed above 19400 but will need to gain past 19600 to pick up momentum for a further rise to the 19800-20000 region. Nifty tested support of 24000 and remained firm above 24000. Lack of follow-through buying is making it difficult to rise sharply, keeping it vulnerable to witness a fall towards 23800–23500. Nikkei reversed from 39315 and is headed towards 40000. Thereafter, we need to see whether it extends the rally towards 41000-42000 or retreats back to 39000-38000. Shanghai held above 3400 and is marching towards 3500+.

The Dow (44293.13, +0.69%) has risen above 44000. We reiterate that 44500 can cap the upside of this rally. A reversal from there can trigger a corrective fall to 42000-41000.

DAX (19448.60, +1.21%) has risen within its 19000-19600 range. We remain positive to see a break above 19600 and rise to 20000.

Nifty (24141.30, -0.03%) has come down from a high of 24336.80. The struggle to get strong follow-through buying keeps the Nifty vulnerable to break 24000 and fall to 23800-23500.

Nikkei (39748.09,+0.54%) marching towards 40000. Upon breaching the level of 40000, a sustained rise is required to move higher to 41000-42000. Failure to do so would pull the index down to 39000-38000.

Shanghai (3468.6098, -0.04%) , while holding steady above 3400, appears positioned for a potential rise to 3500–3550.

Crude prices have declined further and can target 71 on Brent and 67 on WTI in the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply. Gold and Copper can extend the fall further towards 2600 and 4.2 respectively in the near term, while Silver needs to break below 30.5 to see a fall towards 29.5-29.0, else can rise towards 31-32. Natural Gas can test 3.0 on the higher side and fall towards 2.8-2.6 in the near term.

Brent ($ 71.84) has declined further to 71.57 in line with our expectations. It can test 71 on the downside before bouncing back to 76. A range of 71-76 is expected to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 68.13) fell to a low of 67.92 as expected. It can test 67 on the downside before bouncing back to 70-71. A range of 67-71 can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 2629.80) plunged to a low of 2617.10 due to the further rise in the Dollar. It can test its immediate support at 2600 before a bounce back to 2670-2700 is seen.

Silver (31.41) has fallen in line with our expectation to 30.5. The 21-Week moving average and trendline support can be seen near 30.5. While it holds a bounce back to 31-32 can be seen in the near term.

Copper (4.2360) has broken below 4.3 and fell to a low of 4.22. But there could be some chances of a bounce back from 4.2 else the price can be dragged lower to 4.1. Watch price action at 4.2.

Natural Gas (2.9430) surged above 2.9 as expected due to lower gas output and colder US weather forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen near 2.95-3.00 below which a fall to 2.8-2.6 can take place in the near term.

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.1% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 4.0%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 2.0% …Expected 2.5% …Previous -0.1%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
… Exp 4.89 …Expected 5.80 …Previous 5.49

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
No major data released yesterday.