The Dollar Index is nearing support around 106 while the upside in Euro looks capped at 1.0650-1.0700. The Aussie and Pound have been rising well and can continue to strengthen further in the near term. USDCNY is holding well below the resistance 7.25/26 from where a rejection can be expected. The Dollar Yen is trading within the 155-152 range while EURJPY has scope to extend the rise further in the coming sessions while above 162. EURINR, if sustained above current levels, can test 89.50-90.00 in the near term while USDINR is flat below 84.40 and could see a corrective dip to 84.35-84.30 in the near term. US Housing Starts data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (106.229) is nearing the support around 106 which can be tested soon in the coming sessions. Thereafter, a strong break below it will be needed to make the outlook bearish again. Else, it can continue to move up towards 107 or even higher.

EURUSD (1.0591) seems to be holding well above the support around 1.05. Still, the upside looks to be capped at 1.0650-1.0700. A fall to 1.04 cannot be fully ruled out until a sharp rise is seen.

Dollar-Yen (154.11) is gradually coming down within its broader range of 155-152 but while above 153/54 it has enough room to bounce back past 155 again. Targets on the upside could be 157-158. Watch price action for a bounce from 154/153.

EURJPY (163.23) is holding well above the mentioned level of 162 and while it sustains, it can rise towards 165 or even higher in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2352) seems to be holding below the resistance near 7.25. Until a decisive break past 7.25 is seen, the preferred view is to see a corrective fall in the near term towards 7.20/18. Watch price action around 7.25/26.

Aussie (0.6506) is rising as expected and can extend the ongoing rise to 0.6550-0.66 in the coming sessions. Overall, the downside could be limited to 0.64.

Pound (1.2673) was anticipated to see a fall towards 1.25 but it started rising from the low of 1.2596 itself. The ongoing rise could be short-lived with an overall outlook that appears to be bearish below 1.30.

USDINR (84.40) traded flat below 84.40 yesterday and while it holds, a corrective dip to 84.35-84.30 can take place in the near term. A narrow range of 84.40/41-84.35/30 can hold for some time before eventually moving higher towards 84.50.

EURINR (89.3865) has risen well yesterday and can rise towards 89.50-90.00 in the coming sessions. The downside could be limited to 88 for now.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. They have to fall below the immediate support to make our view correct of seeing a fall going. A strong rise from here breaking the resistance will negate that view. We prefer to stay out and watch the market. The German yields have inched up. Outlook is bullish and the yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has dipped from near the range top. That keeps the range intact and a dip within the range is possible now. Eventually we expect the yield to break this range on the upside and rise.

The US 10Yr (4.41%) and 30Yr (4.61%) yields remain stable. The 10Yr has to get a sustained fall below 4.4% to come down to 4.2%-4.4%. A rise above 4.5% will negate this view and take it up to 4.8%. The 30Yr can test 4.4% if it declines below 4.6%. But while it sustains above 4.4%, it has potential to rise towards 4.9% over the medium term.

The German 10Yr (2.37%) and the 30Yr (2.57%) yields have inched up slightly. We retain our bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr). Support is at 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8586%) has dipped. Looks like the resistance at 6.88% is holding well. So, the 6.8%-6.88% range is still intact now. A dip to 6.83%-6.82% is likely within the range on a break below 6.85%. Broadly, the bias is positive to breach 6.88% eventually and rise to 6.9% and 7%.

Most indices look weak. The Dow is headed towards 43000 with a possible extension to 42000/41000 while Dax could be vulnerable to breaking below 19000 and fall to 18800/18500. Nifty rose yesterday but it could limit any further upside to 23800 and start falling again towards 23000. Nikkei could range within a broad 37750-39000 zone till next week. Shanghai could be vulnerable to fall towards 3250 or lower on a break below 3300.

The Dow (43389.60, -0.13%) has dipped further. Our view of seeing a fall to 43000 remains intact. As mentioned yesterday, the downside can extend up to 42000-41000 going forward with intermediate bounces.

DAX (19189.19, -0.11%) has dipped further. It remains vulnerable to break 19000 and fall to 18800-18500. That in turn will delay our bullish view to break 19600 and rise to 20000.

Nifty (23453.80, -0.34%) has risen back from the low of 23350. There is room for a further fall 23000. But need to see if a corrective bounce to 23800 is happening or not. 23,000 is a strong support and the price action around it will need a close watch.

Nikkei (38429.37, +0.55%) has risen slightly today. There could be an interim resistance near 38750-39000 which if broken on the upside can take it towards 39500. The immediate downside could be limited to 37750-38000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3314.55, -0.28%) is falling as expected and a break below 3300, if seen could take it towards 3250 or even lower. An immediate bounce back from current levels is needed to prevent further decline.

Crude prices have recovered sharply in line with our expectations due to the rising geopolitical tension. They can rise further towards 75-76 (Brent) and 72 ( WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver have bounced back as expected but need to surpass their near-term resistance to see a further rise, else can fall back in the upcoming sessions. Copper has risen slightly and can target 4.2-4.3 in the near term. Natural Gas looks bearish towards 2.6 while below 3.

Brent ($ 73.39) has taken a sharp reversal from 70.70 after the US gave Ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles inside Russia. We will have to see whether the rise sustains and breaks above 73 to see higher levels of 75-76 or declines back from 73 and falls back to 71-70. The first scenario is more likely to happen.

WTI ($ 69.24) has bounced back in line with our expectations. A sustained break above 70 could take it higher towards 72 in the near term. A range of 72-69 could hold for some time.

Gold ($ 2619.70) has recovered sharply from a low of 2568 to close above 2600. It needs to sustain above 2600 to see a further rise towards 2650 in the near term. Else it can break below 2600 to see a fall towards 2550.

Silver (31.34) has bounced back sharply to 31.36. It needs to break above 31.5 to see a further rise towards 32.0-32.5, else can fall back to 31.0-30.5 could be possible.

Copper (4.1355) is holding above 4 and while above this level, it can extend the rise further towards 4.2-4.3 in the near term.

Natural Gas (2.9550) saw a low of 2.83 as expected before closing higher at 2.97. While the resistance at 3 holds, our view remains intact to see a fall to 2.6.

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
… Exp 1.8% … Expected 2.0% … Previous 1.7%

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1394K … Expected 1340K … Previous 1354K

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 2.1% … Previous 1.6%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
… Exp – …Expected 7.9 …Previous 10. 8 … Actual 13.6

14:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – …Expected 114.3$ Bln …Previous 111.4$ Bln