The Dollar Index rose in line with our bullish view and while above 106 has a scope to see a rise towards 109. The Euro and EURINR are headed towards 1.04 and 88 respectively. Thereafter, we need to see whether the fall extends further, or the pairs bounce back. Aussie and Pound look bearish in the near term. USDCNY is holding well below the resistance at 7.25/26 from where a rejection can be expected. The Dollar Yen is trading within its 152-155 region but overall, the view is bullish towards 157-158 in the near term. EURJPY, contrary to our view has slipped below 162 and failure to sustain above current levels can drag it further to 160-158. USDINR tested 84.50 yesterday. For now, we anticipate the resistance at 84.50 to hold and push the pair back down towards 84.40 but whether it happens or not will have to be seen.

Lower than expected weekly initial jobless claims in the US took Dollar Index (107.092) to the high of 107.15. As mentioned previously, while the index trades above 106, the view remains bullish towards 109 in the near term. Only a strong break below 106 can make the outlook bearish again.

EURUSD (1.0462) has slipped below 1.05 as feared and is headed towards 1.04. Now, we need to see whether 1.04 holds or extends the fall even further. Watch price action closely around current levels. On the upside, a rise past 1.055 is needed to take it higher to our upper targets of 1.0650-1.0700 but looks less likely just now.

Dollar-Yen (154.46) remained subdued despite the Dollar strength as BOJ Governor said the central bank would “seriously” take into account foreign exchange rate moves in compiling its economic and price forecasts. For now, the range of 152-155 can hold, but while above 153/54, we are retaining our view of seeing a rise past 155. Targets on the upside could be 157-158.

EURJPY (161.65) has slipped sharply below the support of 162. The cross needs to sustain above current levels and rise past it, or else it will be vulnerable to see a fall towards 160-158 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2458) is hovering near the crucial resistance at 7.25, a break past which can take it towards 7.27 or higher in the near term. Else, while the resistance holds, the pair can witness a corrective fall in the near term towards 7.20/18. Watch price action around 7.25/26.

Aussie (0.6517) has a fair chance of seeing a fall towards 0.65-0.64 in the near term while below 0.655 . Only a rise past 0.66 if seen, can delay the anticipated fall and take it higher to 0.67.

Pound (1.2585) has slipped below 1.26 and now if the fall continues further, it can get extended to 1.24-1.23 in the near term. Even if the pair attempts to rise back, it will be short-lived as the overall outlook appears bearish in the near term.

USDINR (84.4860) witnessed a sharp rise to 84.5025 yesterday. Going ahead our preferred view is to see the resistance at 84.50 to hold and push the pair back down towards 84.40-84.37 in the near term. But if the pair breaks higher past 84.50, it can trigger a near-term bullish scenario. Watch price action near 84.50 today for a possible dip.

EURINR (88.5043) is nearing the support at 88 which can be tested soon before it attempts to rise back. At the same time, we need to be cautious for any sudden fall below 88 which can make the outlook further bearish to 87-86.

The US Treasury yields continue to hover near their support. A break below it can drag them lower. A strong rise above the near-term resistance is needed to negate this fall and see a rise. We will have to wait and watch for clarity. The German yields have dipped. But support can limit the downside and keep our bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI is moving up as expected towards the upper end of the range. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside breakout of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.41%) and 30Yr (4.60%) yields remain stable near their support. A fall below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) can drag the yields down to 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). A sustained break above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) is needed to negate this fall and see more rise. It is still a wait and watch situation.

The German 10Yr (2.31%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) have dipped. But support at 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) is likely to hold. View is bullish to see a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr). This view will go wrong if the yields decline below the support.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8620%) has risen as expected and can test 6.88% – the upper end of the broad 6.8%-6.88% range. Bias is positive to break 6.88% eventually and rise to 6.9% and 7%.

Dow Jones is rising but watch could limit its upside to 44000. A fall from 44000 will keep our bearish view intact for a decline towards 42000/41000. Dax is bullish while above 19000 for a rise towards 19600 and higher. Nifty dipped yesterday to close lower at 23349.90 and could test 23000 before pausing for a corrective rise towards 23500/800 again in the medium term. Nikkei has held above our expected support and bounced higher but needs to move up further above 38500 to keep the bullish momentum intact. Shanghai needs to sustain above 3340 to move up else can fall within the broader 3400-3250 range.

The Dow (43870.35, +1.06%) continues to move up. But as mentioned yesterday, 44000 can cap the upside and take the index down again. That will keep intact our bearish view of seeing a fall to 42000-41000. A strong rise above 44000 will prove this bearish view wrong.

DAX (19146.17, +0.74%) is continuing to get bought below 19000. That keeps alive the broader bullish view of a rise to 20000 and higher. A rise above 19600 can clear the way for this rise. A fall below 18800 will only negate this bullish view.

Nifty (23349.90, -0.72%) continues to fall. Our view of seeing 23000 remains intact. But thereafter a bounce back to 23500 and higher levels is a possibility. Watch the price action around 23000.

Nikkei (38415.32, +1.02%) opened higher today at 38146.98 after closing at 38026.17 yesterday. It tested 379945 yesterday, falling within our mentioned support zone at 38000-37750 before bouncing back sharply. However, it will have to rise past 38500 now to retain its bullishness for the upcoming sessions else can again face rejection from 38500 to trade within 38500-37750 for a few sessions.

Shanghai (3352.07, -0.54%) could have a very near-term support at 3340 which needs to push the index higher else we may see a dip within the broader range of 3400-3250. Watch if 3340 holds today.

Crude prices have risen due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. They can target 76-77 (Brent) and 72-74 (WTI) in the near term. Gold continues to rally higher and can rise further towards 2700-2750. Silver and Copper have dipped slightly. Silver can fall towards 30.5 while Copper remains biased to see a rise towards 4.3-4.4 while above 4.1. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.8-4.0 in the upcoming sessions.

Brent ($ 74.45) has broken above 74 and tested a high of 74.40 yesterday after an escalation in the Ukraine-Russian was seen when news reported that Russia launched long-range missiles into the city of Dnipro. This can keep the crude prices higher in the near term. It can rise further towards 76-77 if the upward momentum remains intact.

WTI ($ 70.42) has risen above 69.5 and tested a high of 70.38 yesterday. A sustained break above 71 could take it higher towards 72-74. Else below 71 a fall to 68-67 cannot be negated.

Gold ($ 2680) has broken above its immediate trend resistance and is moving higher. A further rise towards 2700-2750 can be seen in the near term.

Silver (30.92) has dipped slightly as expected and can fall further towards 30.5-30.0 in the near term while below 31.5.

Copper (4.1050) has dipped slightly contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise. But while above 4.1 we retain our view of seeing a rise to 4.3-4.4 in the upcoming sessions.

Natural Gas (3.5480) continues to be bullish as it rose towards 3.5 as expected. The EIA reported that the nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 15 fell -3 bcf when expectations were for an increase of +1 bcf. While the bullishness continues it can move further up towards 3.8-4.0 in the upcoming sessions.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -22 … Expected -22 … Previous -21

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 2.1 … Expected 2.2 … Previous 2.5

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
… Exp 9.4 … Expected 6.3 … Previous 10.3 …Actual – 5.5

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
… Exp 3786K … Expected 3940K … Previous 3840K