The Dollar Index, despite seeing a fall yesterday has sustained well above 106.50 and could be soon headed towards 109-110. EURUSD and EURINR have limited upside to 1.055-1.060 and 89.00-89.50 respectively and appear bearish in the medium term. Aussie and Pound can remain bearish for a while below 0.655 and 1.27. USDCNY looks stable above 7.25 and if sustained can head towards 7.27-7.30 in the coming sessions. The Dollar Yen is trading lower within its 155-152 region but overall, the view is bullish towards 157-158 in the near term. EURJPY is coming off in line with our view and can soon test 158-156 in the coming sessions while below 164/162. USDINR has bounced well as anticipated and is likely to remain ranged within 84.20-84.40/50 in the near term. Watch out for the US PCE, US Personal Income, US Durable Goods and US GDP data releases scheduled today.

US Case Schiller came out lower than expected at 4.6% (4.7% expected) and 111.7k (112k expected) after which the Dollar Index (106.873) came down significantly yesterday but has overall sustained above 106.50 for now. While above 106.50, the view remains bullish towards 109-110. Watch out for the US PCE, US Personal Income, US Durable Goods and US GDP data releases scheduled today.

The EURUSD (1.0484) remained a bit volatile yesterday as it tested 1.0544 on the upside before coming down. The overall upside is likely to be capped at 1.055-1.060 and our preferred view remains bearish towards 1.04 initially. Thereafter a break lower can trigger further decline towards 1.03-1.02 in the coming weeks.

Dollar-Yen (152.72) is nearing the lower end of its range of 155-152. Only a decisive break below 152 if seen, can drag it towards 150 or lower. Else while above 152, we are retaining our view of seeing a rise past 155 to 157-158 In the medium term.

EURJPY (160.12) has been coming off in line with our bearish view and while below resistances at 162 and 164, the pair could be vulnerable to test 158 or even 156 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2558) looks stable above 7.25 for now and can extend the ongoing rise towards 7.27-7.30 in the near term. Failure to sustain its rise past 7.25 can mark this as a false break and lead to a corrective fall towards 7.20/18.

Aussie (0.6470) has recovered well from yesterday’s fall to the low of 0.6434. Still, a channel resistance is coming around 0.655 below which the pair can either remain ranged within 0.640-0.655 region or can extend the fall towards 0.635. Only a strong rise past 0.655 can make the outlook further bullish to 0.67.

Pound (1.2572) was expected to test 1.245 on the downside but instead, it reversed from the level of 1.2506 itself. The fall to 1.2450 or lower at 1.23 cannot be fully ruled out until a strong rise past 1.27 is seen. Overall, the view remains bearish below 1.27.

USDINR (84.3230) rose to the high of 84.35 as anticipated earlier. Now, while below 84.40/50, a range of 84.20-84.40/50 can hold for some time.

EURINR (88.4278) tested 88.50 on the upside before the cross started coming off. Upside could be limited to 89.00-89.50. On a confirmed break below 1.04 in Euro, EURINR can also slip below the support of 88 again in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have inched up but are unlikely to sustain. We retain our view of the yields coming down further to test their support in the coming days. The price action after this fall will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or not. The US PCE data release today will need a watch. A rise in the PCE can take the yields higher. The US PCE (YoY) is currently at 2.2% (October). The German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our bearish view. There is room to fall further. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating in a narrow range. Bias is bullish to see a rise.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.48%) yields have inched up. While below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) the yields can fall to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or not. A strong rise above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) is needed to become bullish again.

The German 10Yr (2.18%) and the 30Yr (2.41%) yields are coming down in line with our expectation. Our bearish view of seeing a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) remains intact while below 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8551%) continues to oscillate around 6.85%. While above 6.83%, the yield can rise to 6.88%-6.9%. The broader view is bullish to see 7% eventually over the medium term.

The Dow Jones has almost reached the crucial 45000 level from where a rejection to 43000-42000/41000 can be possible eventually. Only a sustained break above 45000 will prove our view wrong. DAX closed lower but continues to hold within the range of 19000-19600. The near-term view continues to be bullish towards 19600 and eventually higher. Nifty initially saw a decent rise yesterday but lost its intraday gains and closed lower. Further, it needs to break above 24400 again to exhibit a rise towards 24500-24700 else can fall towards 23800. Nikkei continues to trade lower, holding above 38000. It is expected to hold the sideways range of 39500-38000. Below 38000, it can test support at 37700. Shanghai fell below 3250. Interim resistance is seen around 3300 below which there is some scope for a fall to 3150.

The Dow (44860.31, +0.28%) has come close to the crucial 44900-45000 resistance zone. We expect a reversal from there to 43000 initially and then to 42000-41000 eventually. A sustained rise above 45000 will prove this view wrong.

DAX (19295.98, -0.56%) has come down. While above 18800 the bias bullish to break 19600 and rise to 20000.

Nifty (24194.50, -0.11%) is still struggling to gain momentum. 24000-24400 looks likely to be the range now. A breakout of this range will decide whether Nifty can rise to 24500-24700 or fall back to 23800 and lower.

Nikkei (38165.80, -0.72%) lacks the strength to rise past 38500 and trades lower than yesterday. While above 38000, it can continue to trade in the previously mentioned range of 38000-39500. A break below 38000 could lead to a test of immediate support at 37700.

Shanghai (3243.3104, -0.49%) trades below 3250. While below the interim resistance of 3300, a fall towards 3150 looks possible.

Crude prices continue to fall and may target their near-term support levels before a bounce back is seen. Gold and Silver are holding above their support levels and can rise towards 2650-2700 and 31.5-32.0 respectively. Copper remains ranged between 4.20-4.05 for some time. Natural Gas can rise towards 3.6 in the near term.

Brent ($ 72.69) dipped slightly to 72. A further fall towards its immediate support at 71 can take place in the near term which could attract some buying for the near term and can take the price back towards 74-76.

WTI ($ 68.67) continues to fall and can test 67 on the downside before a rise to 70-72 is seen.

Gold ($ 2631.80) fell to a low of 2605 yesterday but is currently holding well above 2600. While 2600 holds a rise towards 2650-2700 looks likely in the near term. Wait and watch the scenario right now. It would be better to watch price action until a sustained break below 2550 or 2750 is seen for further directional clarity.

Silver (30.41) has immediate support at 30 above which our view is bullish to see a rise towards 31.5-32.0. We may expect some bullish momentum to build on a break above 31.5 to take it further towards 33.0-33.5.

Copper (4.0550) dipped slightly but the near-term looks ranged between 4.20-4.05.

Natural Gas (3.4470) rose to 3.52 before closing slightly lower at 3.46 yesterday. A further rise towards 3.6 can take place in the upcoming sessions.

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PCE
… Exp 0.0 … Expected – … Previous 0.2

13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
… Exp -0.5% … Expected 0.4% … Previous -0.8%

13:30 19:00 US GDP
… Exp – … Expected 1.8% … Previous 2.8%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 5.1% … Previous 5.2% …Actual 4.6%

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 740K … Expected 724K … Previous 738K …Actual 610K

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 110.6 … Expected 112.0 … Previous 109.6 …Actual 111.7