The Dollar Index looks bullish towards 107-108 in the near term while above 105.50. Euro and EURINR are likely to fall back towards 1.04 and 88 respectively. Aussie and Pound can remain ranged within 0.6550-0.6400 and 1.2750-1.2450. USDCNY, above 7.27 can extend the rise to 7.30-7.35 in the near term. USDJPY needs to see a sustained rise past 150 to head towards 152-154 in the coming sessions. EURJPY tested 156.18 and now we need to see whether the support at 156 holds and the pair bounces back or extends the fall further. USDINR rose to the high of 84.77 before closing lower. Need to see whether RBI intervenes and strengthens Rupee towards 84.50 or not. While above 84.60, a rise to 83.83 cannot be ruled out.

Dollar Index (106.424) had dipped slightly to the level of 106.087 but has recovered well from there. While the support at 105.50 holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 107-108 in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.0499) and EURINR (88.9308) need to see a strong break past 1.0550 and 89.50 to rise further. Else, the view continues to remain bearish towards 1.04 and 88 respectively in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (149.78) tested 148.64 yesterday before rising back from there. A sustained rise past 150 can take it higher to 152-154. Else, it could be vulnerable to test 148-145 in the near term.

EURJPY (157.24) extended the fall to the low of 156.18 yesterday. Currently, it has held the support around 156 well and if sustained can bounce back again towards 159-160. Only a decisive break below 156 if seen can make it vulnerable to test lower levels of 154-152.

USDCNY (7.2789) saw a gap up opening to the level of 7.29 but could not sustain and started to decline. While above 7.27, a test of 7.30-7.35 looks likely. Overall, the view remains bullish above 7.25.

Aussie (0.6423) continues to move lower within its range of 0.6550-0.6400. Charts have enough room to see a fall towards 0.635 but a confirmed break below 0.64 will be needed. Watch price action closely around 0.64.

Pound (1.2659) looks stable within its broad range of 1.2750/70-1.2450. The range can persist for a while until a decisive break is seen on either side.

USDINR (84.6520) after moving towards the high of 84.77 saw some relief and closed at 84.69 yesterday. A gradual rise towards 84.83 can be possible while above 84.60. However, if the RBI intervenes to stabilize the Rupee, a dip to 84.50 cannot be ruled out.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. The support has held very well. While this bounce sustains, the outlook will be bullish, and the yields can rise further. The German yields remain stable above their crucial support. The yields have to sustain above their support and rise back in the coming days to avoid a deeper fall. It is a wait and watch situation now. The 10Yr GoI has bounced slightly. The view remains negative. The yield can fall further before a reversal is seen.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.41%) have risen further. The support at 4.15% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) has held very well. A rise to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.7% (30Yr) can be seen now. The danger of the extended fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) stands negated now.

The German 10Yr (2.05%) and the 30Yr (2.27%) yields remain lower and stable. 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) are crucial supports which must hold to produce a bounce and avoid a deeper fall. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7513%) has inched up slightly. We retain our view of seeing a test of 6.7%-6.65% on the downside first. Thereafter the yield can reverse higher again.

The Dow Jones trades below 45000 keeping the outlook bearish towards 43000. DAX and Nifty have risen and closed above 20000 and 24400. Going ahead, we can see extended gains towards 20300 may be even higher to 20500-21000 for DAX and 24700-25000 for Nifty on a break above 24600. The Nikkei retreated after encountering selling pressure above 39400, just below the resistance at 39500. A decisive break below 39000 is required to confirm further downside toward 38,500-38,000. Shanghai hovers around the resistance at 3380 and could attempt a rise past the resistance to move higher to 3400.

The Dow (44705.53, -0.17%) remains below 45000. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 43000 initially and then to 42000-41000 eventually in a month or two. A strong rise above 45000 is needed to negate this view.

DAX (20016.75, +0.42%) has risen to 20000 as expected. There is room to see 20500 or 21000 maximum. But thereafter a strong reversal is possible. So, more caution is needed as the DAX heads up to 20500 and higher.

Nifty (24457.15, +0.75%) continues to move up. The price action on the chart leaves the bias positive to breach 24500-24600. That will be bullish to see 25000 on the upside.

Nikkei (39076.99, -0.44%) has retreated after facing resistance at 39500. A break below 39000 is required to confirm further declines toward 38500–38000. If the 39000 holds, then it can rise to re-test the resistance of 39500.

Meanwhile, Shanghai (3376.0983, -0.06%) is testing resistance near 3,380. A sustained rise above this level could open the door to 3,400. However, failure to breach 3,380 may trigger a pullback toward 3350-3300.

Crude prices have risen to its upper end of the narrow range after weaker Dollar and Iran crude sanctions. The narrow of 73.5-71.0 (Brent) and 70-67 (WTI) can hold for the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper can sustain within the range of 2700-2650, 31.5-30.5 and 4.2-4.0 respectively for some time. Natural Gas has plunged below 3.1 but as long as it holds above 3 it can bounce back to 3.4-3.6.

Brent ($ 73.67) rose sharply to 73.93 after the US imposed more sanctions on Iranian crude, curbing global oil supplies. It needs to sustain trade above 73.5 to rise higher towards 75-76. Else it can remain in the narrow range of 73.5-71.0 for the near term.

WTI ($ 70) rose to a high of 70.23 yesterday. A sustained break above 70 is needed to see higher levels of 72-74 else can remain narrowly ranged between 70-67 for some time.

Gold ($ 2667.40) trades within the earlier mentioned range of 2700-2650 and could remain in this range for some more time until a breakout on either side takes place.

Silver (31.49) tested a high of 31.57 yesterday but it needs to break above this level to be bullish towards 33-34. Else can trade within a narrow range of 31.5-30.5 for few more sessions.

Copper (4.1880) saw an initial break above 4.2 and rose to a high of 4.26 before closing lower at 4.20 yesterday. While the immediate resistance at 4.2 holds it can fall back to 4.1-4.0. Only a sustained break above 4.2 would prove our view wrong which would then turnout bullish for Copper towards 4.3-4.5.

Natural Gas (3.05) broke its immediate support at 3.10 and plunged to a low of 3.03 yesterday. Forecasts for warmer temperatures in the eastern US that will curb heating demand for nat-gas are weighing on prices. The 21-Day moving average support is coming near 3, while that holds it can still bounce back towards 3.4-3.6 in the upcoming weeks. Else if the fall sustains then it can turn out bearish for the price towards 2.8-2.4.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -19.7

0:30 06:00 AU GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.2%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 57.6 … Expected 59.2 … Previous 58.5

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 166K … Previous 233K

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
7:30 13:00 CH CPI
… Exp 1.1 … Expected 0.8 … Previous 0.7 …Actual 0.7