The Dollar Index initially slipped to the low of 106.09 but recovered from there. It looks bullish towards 107-108 in the near term while above 105.50. Euro and EURINR are attempting to rise back within their narrow range of 1.0450-1.06 and 88.50-89.50 respectively. Aussie and Pound can remain ranged within 0.6550-0.6400 and 1.2450-1.2750 until a decisive break can be seen on either side. USDCNY has been coming off but while above 7.25, we are retaining our view of seeing a rise towards 7.30-7.35 in the near term. USDJPY needs to sustain above 150 to head towards 152-154 in the coming sessions. EURJPY has risen well from the support of 156 and can extend the rise to 160-162 in the near term. USDINR is rising in line with our view and can soon test 84.83 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, while the resistance holds at 84.83, it can fall back towards 84.60 in the near term.

US ADP Employment came out lower than expected at 146k(166k) which led Dollar Index (106.294) to test 106.09 on the downside. Thereafter it rose back as the expected collapse of the French government following a no-confidence vote by opposition lawmakers led Euro to fall. While the immediate support at 106.25 and lower support at 105.50 holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 107-108 in the coming sessions. Watch out for US Trade Balance scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0517) and EURINR (88.1032) are attempting to rise back within their narrow range of 1.0450-1.06 and 88.50-89.50 respectively. The pairs need to see a strong break past 1.0550 and 89.50 to rise further. Else, the view continues to remain bearish towards 1.04 and 88 respectively in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (149.78) looks stable above 150 for now. If it sustains, it can head to 152-154 in the near term. Any decisive break below 150 can make it vulnerable to test 148-145 on the downside.

EURJPY (158.14) has bounced well from the support of 156. While the rise sustains, a test of 159-160 or higher at even 162 can happen in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2718) has been coming off since the last 2 sessions. Still while it holds above 7.25, our view of seeing a further rise towards 7.30 or 7.35 cannot be fully ruled out.
Aussie (0.6423) continues to move lower within its range of 0.6550-0.6400. Charts have enough room to see a fall towards 0.635 but a confirmed break below 0.64 will be needed. Watch price action closely around 0.64.

Pound (1.2706) is rising within its range of 1.2450-1.2750/70. Until a decisive break past the resistance of 1.2750 is seen, the range can persist for a while.

USDINR (84.7030), in line with our view of seeing a rise towards 84.83, tested 84.75 on the upside. Even if the rise extends further, the resistance at 84.83 could hold for now and push the pair back towards 84.60 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped and seem to be struggling to rise. Supports are there while above which the chances are high to see a rise. But if a break below the supports will drag the yields down further and then a rise can be seen. The US NFP and the unemployment data release tomorrow will need a very close watch. The German yields remain lower and stable. They have to sustain above their immediate support in order to avoid a deeper fall. We will have to wait and watch. The Indian 10Yr GoI continues to fall in line with our expectation. There is room to fall further before a reversal is seen. The RBI’s monetary policy meeting outcome tomorrow is important to watch.

The US 10Yr (4.20%) and 30Yr (4.36%) seems to be struggling to rise. While above 4.15% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) a rise to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.7% (30Yr) is possible. Only a fall below 4.15% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) will bring in the danger of the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) first and then a rise back.

The German 10Yr (2.06%) and the 30Yr (2.28%) yields continue to remain stable. A test of the crucial support at 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) is possible in the near-term. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or not.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7282%) continues to come down. Our view of seeing 6.7%-6.65% on the downside remains intact. The yield can reverse higher thereafter.

The Dow Jones surpassed 45000, following remarks from Fed Chair Powell, highlighting the strength of the U.S. economy, suggesting that the FOMC could adopt a more cautious approach to lowering interest rates, also noted that economic growth has outperformed expectations since September. If the index sustains above 45,000, it may test the immediate resistance at 45500. The DAX continues its upward momentum and can target 20500-21000 before pausing. Nifty attempted to breach the 24600 mark but failed, closing the session flat. Nikkei maintained levels above 39000 and is trading near the resistance at 39500. Sustained trading above this threshold could drive the index higher towards 40000–41000. The Shanghai Composite remains below the resistance at 3080. If this level holds, the index could decline towards 3300–3250.

The Dow (45014.04, +0.69%) has risen and closed above 45000. A strong follow-through rise from here will negate our view of seeing the fall to 43000 and lower. That in turn can take the Dow up to 45500. We will have to wait and watch.

DAX (20232.14, +1.08%) has surged above 20000 and can see an extended rise to 20500-21000. After this rise, a reversal is possible.

Nifty (24,467.45, 0.04%) sustained higher but was stable. A sustained break above 24500-24600 will boost the momentum for a rise to 25000 going forward.

Nikkei (39488.46, +0.54%) is trading near the key resistance level of 39500. A decisive breakout above this level is essential to pave the way for a further rally towards 40000–41000. Meanwhile, the Shanghai (3360.0526, -0.15%) trades below the resistance of 3380. While this resistance remains firm, it may trigger a pullback toward 3300-3250. A sustained rise above this level could open the door to 3400.

Crude prices have fallen and can dip further towards 71.5/71.0 (Brent) and 67 (WTI) in the near term. Gold remains ranged between 2650-2700. Silver and Natural Gas can rise towards 32.5-33.0 and 3.4-3.6 respectively. Copper can fall towards 4.15-4.10 while below 4.2.

Brent ($ 72.32) has taken a reversal from yesterday’s high of 74.48 due to the release of weaker-than-expected US ADP. It can fall further towards 71.5/71.0 and trade within a range of 74.5-71.5/71.0 for some time.

WTI ($ 68.66) has fallen back as expected and can decline further towards 67. A range of 70.5-67 can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 2669.60) can remain in the narrow range of 2650-2700 for a few more sessions.

Silver (31.70) has broken above 31.5 and rose to a high of 32.08 as expected. A further rise towards 32.5-33.0 can be seen in the near term.

Copper (4.1930) is failing to break above 4.2. While the resistance at 4.2 holds, it can fall back to 4.15-4.10 in the near term.

Natural Gas (3.07) is holding above its immediate support level. It can gradually rise towards 3.4-3.6 in the upcoming weeks while above 3. Only a sustained break below, if seen, would prove our view wrong and turn bearish towards 2.8-2.4 but that looks less likely for now.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 4.58 … Previous 4.61

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.0% … Expected -0.4% … Previous 0.5%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp -83.9 … Expected -75.7 … Previous -84.4

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -19.7 …Actual -17.9

0:30 06:00 AU GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.3%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 57.6 … Expected 59.2 … Previous 58.5 …Actual 58.4

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 166K … Previous 184K …Actual 146K