The Dollar Index again fell towards the support near 105.50 on higher private unemployment claims. Still while above 105.50, it can bounce back towards 107-108 in the near term. Euro, if breaks past 1.06, can test 1.0650 on the upside and EURINR can test 90, therein a revised range of 90-88 can hold for some time. Aussie continues to trade near the lower end of its range of 0.6550-0.6400 and Pound needs to see strong break past 1.2750 to head towards 1.28-1.30 in the medium term. Else the range of 1.2450-1.2750 can hold for now. USDCNY has been coming off but while above 7.25, we are retaining our view of seeing a rise towards 7.30-7.35 in the near term. USDJPY needs to rise past 150 again to head towards 152-154 in the coming sessions. EURJPY is rising as expected and if sustained, can extend the rise to 160-162 in the near term. USDINR can test 84.80/83 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, while the resistance holds at 84.83, it can fall back towards 84.60 in the near term. Watch out for the RBI MPC Meeting, US NFP, US Unemployment, US Avg hourly earnings data releases scheduled today.

Greater than expected private unemployment claims in the US at 224k(215k) led Dollar Index (105.818) to slip sharply below 106 to the low of 105.699 on the downside. Near-term support is coming at 105.50, while it holds, a bounce back to 107-108 cannot be fully ruled out. The index will have to decisively break below 105.50 to become further bearish.

EURUSD (1.0575) has moved higher within the range of 1.0450-1.06. Resistance is seen around 1.06-1.0650 which if holds can lead to a fall within the 1.0450-1.0650 range. A sustained break past 1.06/1.0650 is needed for a rise towards 1.0750-1.08 to come into the picture.

EURINR (89.5762) has risen past 89.50 and if sustained can test the resistance at 90 on the upside. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a revised range of 90-88 can hold for some time.

Dollar-Yen (149.93) has again slipped slightly below 150 on Dollar weakness. While the Dollar Index sustains above 105.50, it can bounce back higher and can take USDJPY higher towards 152-154 as well.

EURJPY (158.62) is rising in line with our expectations and if sustained, can test our mentioned targets of 159-160 or even 162 in the coming sessions. For now, the downside could be limited to 157-156.

USDCNY (7.2611) has a fair chance to see a rise towards 7.30 or 7.35 in the near term while above 7.25. Only if it breaks below it, we might have to revise our view accordingly.

Aussie (0.6430) has been oscillating near the lower end of its range of 0.6550-0.6400. Charts have enough room to see a fall towards 0.635 but a confirmed break below 0.64 will be needed. Watch price action closely around 0.64 to see whether it holds and bounces back higher or slips further.

Pound (1.2748) tested the upper end of its earlier mentioned range of 1.2450-1.2750/70 before coming down. A sustained break past the resistance of 1.2750 will be needed to head towards 1.28-1.30 in the medium term.

USDINR (84.6530) may rise towards the resistance near 84.80/83. Thereafter the resistance is likely to hold and push the pair back towards 84.60. Therein a broad range of 84.80-84.60 can hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. They have to sustain above their upcoming support to rise back immediately. Else, more fall is possible before a reversal is seen. The US NFP and the unemployment rate data release today will be important to watch. The German yields are showing a turn-around. A strong follow-through rise from here can clear the way for more rise going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI is inching down in line with our expectation. A further fall is possible before a reversal is seen. The RBI’s monetary policy meeting outcome today will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and 30Yr (4.33%) have dipped. They have to sustain above 4.15% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) to get a rise to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.7% (30Yr). Else, a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) can happen first and then a rise is possible.

The German 10Yr (2.11%) and the 30Yr (2.31%) yields are turning up. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them up to 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) in the coming weeks. Only a fall below 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) will bring the danger of a deeper fall.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7281%) remains lower. It can fall to 6.7%-6.65% and then rise back again.

The Dow Jones failed to sustain above 45000 and dropped below 44800, keeping our bearish view to 43000 intact. DAX and Nifty have risen well above 20350 and 24700. The view remains bullish towards 20500-21000 for DAX and 25000 for Nifty. Nikkei is unable to breach above 39500 and has fallen to 39000. A break below 39000 would extend the downside towards 38500-38000. Shanghai remained flat for a few sessions, failing to breach the resistance of 3380. A confirmed break below 3350 would lead to a further fall to 3300-3250.

The Dow (44765.71, -0.55%) has come down failing to sustain above 45000. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 43000 and lower. A break below 44500 will confirm the top. A sustained rise above 45000, if seen again will negate this view.

DAX (20358.80, +0.63%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact to see 20500-21000. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

Nifty (24708.40, +0.98%) has risen and closed well above 24600. It can rise to 25000 now. A break above 25000 will be very bullish. Support is now at 24400.

Nikkei (39042.54, -0.90%) has come down from the resistance at 39500. A decisive break below 39000 is needed to confirm further decline toward 38500–38000. If the 39000 holds, then it can rise to retest the resistance of 39500.

Shanghai (3374.6378, +0.10%) is testing resistance near 3380. Failure to breach 3380 and break below 3350 may trigger a pullback toward 3300-3250. A sustained rise above this level could open the door to 3400.

Brent and WTI can test their immediate support levels of 71.5/71.0 and 67 in the near term before a bounce takes place. Gold has broken the sideways range on the downside and looks bearish towards 2600. Silver and Natural Gas can rise towards 32.5-33.5 and 3.2-3.4-3.6 respectively. Copper can trade sideways between 4.2-4.0 while below 4.2.

Brent ($ 71.71) has fallen as expected. Immediate support at 71.5/71.0 can be tested in the near term before a bounce back to 73.5-74.5 is seen. A range of 71.5/71.0-74.5 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 68.08) continues to fall and can test 67 on the downside. Thereafter, it can range between 67-71 for some time.

The narrow sideways ranged has broken as Gold ($ 2644.70) has fallen below 2650. It can continue to fall further towards its immediate support at 2600.

Silver (31.51) has dipped slightly contrary to our expectations but the outlook remains intact to see a rise towards 32.5-33.5 in the near term.

Copper (4.1850) holds below 4.2 and can remain in the range of 4.2-4.0 for the near term. A sustained break above 4.2 could take it higher towards 4.3-4.4.

Natural Gas (3.0840) trades above 3.05/3.00 and it can rise towards 3.2-3.4-3.6 while above this level.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
… Exp 6.50% … Expected – … Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 6.75%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 132K … Expected 202K … Previous 12K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp 4.1% … Expected 4.2% … Previous 4.1%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.4

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 14.5K

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 4.53 … Previous 4.53 …Actual 5.95

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.0% … Expected -0.3% … Previous 0.5% …Actual -0.5%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp -83.9 … Expected -75.7 … Previous -84.4 …Actual – 73.8