The Dollar Index has immediate support around 107, above which it can bounce back again towards 108-108.50. Euro and EURINR are rising but have limited upside to 1.0500-1.0550 and 89.00-89.50 respectively for now. Aussie has risen well and if sustained, can test our mentioned target of 0.6300-0.6350 in the coming sessions. Pound is back within its broad range of 1.25-1.28 and while above 1.25, it can rise higher with a near-term target of 1.2650. USDJPY has been coming off but the downside can be limited to 156 or 154 max. While this support holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 158 again in the coming sessions. Similarly, EURJPY has risen past 163 and a break past 164 can turn bullish. USDINR can see a dip towards 84.90/87 before it starts ascending towards 85.35, going into Jan-25. Watch out for US Case Schiller & US Consumer Confidence data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.723) fell sharply to the low of 107.587 on Friday after the US PCE and Personal Income came out lower than expected at 0.1% (0.2%) & 0.3% (0.45) respectively. Immediate support is coming around the 107.30-107.00 region, above which it has a scope to bounce back again towards 108-108.50 or even higher in the coming sessions. The Index will have to break below 107 to negate the expected rise.

EURUSD (1.0439) bounced well from the low of 1.0342 on Dollar weakness. Going ahead, an interim resistance is coming around 1.05 and higher at 1.0550. So, even if the rise extends further, the upside can be limited while these resistances hold. The overall downside is anticipated to be limited to 1.0330-1.0300 region in the near term.

EURINR (88.7381) is attempting to rise higher within its range of 88.00-89.50/90.00 region but could face rejection around 89.00-89.50 region. A decisive break on either side of its range will be needed for directional clarity. Till then range can hold.

Dollar-Yen (156.35) has immediate support around 156 region and lower at 154, above which the pair is likely to rise back towards 158 again in the coming sessions. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or not will have to be seen.

EURJPY (163.28) has risen past 163 again. Still, a break past 164 will be needed to make the outlook bullish towards 166-167 in the near term. Watch price action closely around the current levels. Any fall below 162 if seen, can make it vulnerable to test 160 again on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2963) traded flat on Friday. Currently, it looks stable above 7.29. The pair can slowly inch up higher to 7.30 and eventually towards 7.35 in the near term. While the immediate support at 7.29 and lower at 7.25 holds, the view remains bullish towards 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6258) is rising in line with our view and if sustained, can test 0.6300-0.6350 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, a strong break past 0.6350-0.6400 will be needed to keep the bullishness intact, else it can fall back towards 0.62 again.

Pound (1.2587) is back within its broad range of 1.25-1.28. Currently, it has strong support near 1.25 which if held can take the price higher within its 1.25-1.28 region with an immediate target of 1.2650 in the near term. Only if any break below 1.25/24, if seen, can be strongly bearish.

USDINR (84.9590) saw some relief on Friday as the RBI might have been active to protect Rupee. Going ahead, a further dip to 84.90/84.84 could be seen before it eventually rises past 85 and ascends towards 85.35, going into Jan-25.

The US Treasury and the German yields have dipped slightly. The Treasury yield came down after the US PCE data showed a fall (MoM) in November to 0.13% from 0.23% in October. But on a YoY basis, the PCE rose to 2.54% from 2.4% over the same period. The Treasury yields have an immediate support while above which the outlook is bullish to see a rise in the coming days. The German yields are also bullish and can rise more. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to an important resistance which can cap the upside. We expect the yields to reverse lower and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.53%) and 30Yr (4.73%) yields have come down slightly. While above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr), the outlook is bullish to see a rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Only a fall below 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) will negate this rise.

The German 10Yr (2.28%) and the 30Yr (2.51%) yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish to see a rise to 2.4%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8203%) has dipped slightly. We expect the upside to be capped at 6.83%-6.84% and the yield to reverse lower going forward. 6.7%-6.65% can be tested on the downside eventually.

The Dow Jones is holding well above support at 42100. A rise to 43300-43550 could be possible while above 42800. DAX dropped below 20,000, opening the possibility of a fall to 19,500-19,400. Nifty slipped below 24,000 but there is support at 23500 which is expected to hold and provide a base for recovery. Failure to hold above 23500 will take it down to 23300-23000 before a pause is seen for a reversal. Nikkei remains below 39,000, maintaining a bearish outlook towards 38,000. Shanghai continues to trade below 3,400, with a bias for further declines towards 3,300.

The Dow (42840.26, +1.18%) has risen well as the support near 42100 has held well. A further rise to 43300-43550 is possible before the Dow falls back to 42000-41800 and even lower eventually. A strong rise above 44000 is needed to turn the outlook bullish.

DAX (19884,75, -0.43%) has declined below 19900. Outlook is bearish for a fall to 19500-19400. Thereafter a bounce is possible.

Nifty (23587.50, -1.52%)) has declined below 23800. Need to see if a bounce from 23500 can take it up to 24000. A break below 23500 can take it down to 23300-23000. Stay out and watch.

Nikkei (39043.54, +0.88%) has risen above 39,000. If it sustains this level, further upside is possible. However, failing to hold above 39,000 could shift the outlook to bearish, targeting 38,000. Overall, the index is expected to trade within the 38,000–40,000 range.

Shanghai (3372.1049, +0.14%) continues to trade below 3,400 and above 3,350, with a bearish bias targeting 3350-3,300. A break below 3350 is necessary for further downside to 3300.

Crude prices have risen slightly and can rise further towards 74-74 (Brent) and 71-72 (WTI) respectively. The support for metal prices has held, and the prices were pushed higher on Friday. Gold, Silver and Copper can target 2700, 30.5-31.5 and 4.15-4.20 respectively on the higher side. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 4.0-4.5.

Brent ($ 73.30) fell to a low of 72 on Friday due to the concern about the possibility of an all-out US-EU trade. But it has opened higher near 73 today and can rise towards 74-75.

WTI ($ 69.78) is holding well above the 21-day moving average support near 69. While above this, a rise towards 71-72 looks likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 2638.10) has bounced back to 2653.80 as expected. It can rise further towards 2700 in the near term.

Silver (30.11) has bounced back from the support at 29 to close near 30 on Friday. While the support holds, a further rise towards 30.5-31.5 can take place in the upcoming sessions.

Copper (4.1160) has risen slightly as expected. It can target 4.15-4.20 on the higher side.

Natural Gas (3.8810) surged to a high of 3.82 on Friday as expected. It can continue its bullishness towards 4.0-4.2 in the upcoming weeks.

7:00 12:30 UK GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.1%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.1%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 4.6%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
… Exp 115 … Expected 112.9 … Previous 111.7

DATA ON FRIDAY:-
—————
23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 2.4 … Expected 2.6 … Previous 2.2 …Actual 2.9

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 0.6% … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.7% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.1%