The holiday week starts tomorrow in the US so the volumes would be thinner and as a result, the currencies might remain stable, and the targets can get delayed. The Dollar Index, above 107 can rise towards 108.50-109 in the near term. Euro, EURINR and Aussie can trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6350/06300-0.6200 respectively until a decisive break is seen on either side. The pound needs to hold above the support of 1.25 to head toward the near-term target of 1.2650. Else any break below 1.2500-1.2450, if seen, can be bearish for the pair. USDJPY is rising as expected and can test 158 soon. EURJPY, on a break past 164 can turn bullish. USDINR reversed from the low of 84.99 itself and now while it sustains above 85.10, can see a further rise to 85.10/20 in the near term.

Dollar Index (108.092) seems to be holding well above the support around the 107.30-107.00 region. While it holds, the Index can extend the rise towards 108-109 in the near term. Note that we are entering into the holiday week in the US so the expected targets can get delayed. The Index will have to break below 107 to negate the expected rise.

EURUSD (1.0402) had risen well to the high of 1.0445 but could not sustain and started coming off. A rise past 1.0450 will be needed to head towards 1.0550. Overall, while the resistance at 1.045 and higher at 1.0550 holds, it can trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300 region for a while.

EURINR (88.5323) failed to rise above 89 as expected and started coming off from the higher of 88.8521 itself. Overall, its range of 89.50/90.00-88.00 can hold for the time being until a decisive break on either side of its range is seen for further directional clarity.

Dollar-Yen (157.09) has moved up in line with our expectations and can test 158 soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or not will have to be seen. Overall, the downside can be limited to immediate support around 156 region and lower at 154.

EURJPY (163.25) looks stable above 163 for now. Still, a decisive break past 164 will be needed to make the outlook bullish towards 166-167 in the near term. Watch price action closely around the current levels. Any fall below 162 if seen, can make it vulnerable to test 160 again on the downside.

USDCNY (7.2981) is nearing our initial target of 7.30 which can be tested soon. While the immediate support around current levels and lower at 7.25 holds, the rise can get extended to 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6232) has immediate support around 0.62 and resistance at 0.6300-0.6350. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. Till then, it can move within 0.6350/06300-0.6200 region.

Pound (1.2533) is oscillating near the lower end of its previous broad range of 1.25-1.28. It has strong support near 1.25 which if held can take the price higher within its 1.25-1.28 region with an immediate target of 1.2650 in the near term. Only a break below 1.2500/2450, if seen, can be strongly bearish.

USDINR (85.0910) was initially expected to dip towards 84.90 but it reversed from the low of 84.99 itself. While it sustains above 85.10 in the onshore markets, there remains a possibility of seeing a further rise to 85.15-85.20 in the upcoming sessions.

The US Treasury yields are getting a good follow-through rise after breaking above the key resistance. That keeps the outlook bullish. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr GoI is turning down as expected from near its resistance. The downtrend has resumed, and yield can fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.58%) and 30Yr (4.77%) yields are getting a good follow-through rise. That keeps the outlook bullish to see 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) while they sustain above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.32%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) remain stable. Outlook is bullish. The yields can rise to 2.4%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8053%) is turning down from its 6.83%-6.84% resistance as expected. A fall to 6.7%-6.65% can be seen in the coming days.

The Dow Jones initially attempted a corrective rise to 42,800 but failed to sustain intraday gains. However, a test of 43300-43500 is possible before a dip is seen towards 42000-41800. DAX dropped below 20,000, opening the possibility of a fall to 19,500-19,400. Nifty looks mixed for now and could trade within 23500-24100 for now. Nikkei remains below 39,000, maintaining a bearish outlook towards 38,000. Shanghai continues to trade below 3,400, with a bias for further declines towards 3,300.

The Dow (42906.95, +0.16%) sustains higher. As mentioned yesterday, there is room for the corrective rise to touch 43300-43500. Thereafter the fall can resume to 42000-41800 and lower. A strong rise above 44000 is needed to turn the outlook bullish.

DAX (19848.77, -0.18%) remains lower and looks vulnerable to see 19500-19400 on the downside. Thereafter a bounce is possible.

Nifty (23753.45, +0.70%) rose but looks mixed on the daily candles. Equal chances to go up to 24000-24100 and fall to 23500. Broadly, we can look for the Nifty to oscillate in a range of 23500-24100. Stay out and watch.

Nikkei (39055.30, -0.27%) trades above 39,000. However, failing to hold above 39,000 could shift the outlook bearish, targeting 38,000. If it sustains this level, further upside is possible. Overall, the index is expected to hold the range of 38,000–40,000.

Shanghai (3371.4742, +0.59%) continues to trade between 3,400 and 3,350. The upside is limited to the resistance at 3400-3450 below which bias remains bearish targeting 3350-3,300. A break below 3350 is necessary for further downside to 3300.

Crude prices can remain in a narrow range of 73-75 (Brent) and 69-72 (WTI) for the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper can rally higher towards 2650-2670, 31.0-31.5 and 4.15-4.20 respectively. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 4.0-4.2.

Brent ($ 73.02) is trading sideways and can remain in a range of 73-75 for the near term.

WTI ($ 69.59) has dipped slightly. A range of 69-71/72 can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 2632.60) has also dipped slightly but it can rise towards 2650-2670 in the near term while above 2600.

Silver (30.32) is inching up gradually and can target the mentioned levels of 31.0-31.5 in the near term.

Copper (4.10) has fallen a bit but our view remains to see a rise towards 4.15-4.20 in the near term. A range of 4.20-4.05 can hold for the upcoming weeks.

Natural Gas (3.7230) tested a high of 3.9440 before falling back sharply from there to 3.5810 yesterday, due to the forecast of near term warmer weather in the US. The outlook remains bullish towards 4.0-4.2 for the upcoming weeks.

DATA Today:-
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No major data release today

DATA YESTERDAY:
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US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 2.5 % …Expected 0.3 % …Previous 0.2 % …Actual-0.1%

US New Home Sales
Expn 596 K …Expected 666.0 K …Previous 610.0 K …Actual 664K

UK GDP
…Expected 0.1 % …Previous 0.1 % …Actual 0 %

CA GDP
…EXpected 0.2 % …Previous 0.1 % …Actual0.3%

US Cons Conf
Expn 115 …Expected 112.9 …Previous 111.7 …Actual 104.7