The Dollar Index can rise towards 109-109.50 while above 107.50-108.00. Euro, EURINR and Aussie can trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6350/06300-0.6200 respectively until a decisive break is seen on either side. The pound looks stable above 1.25 but needs a strong break past 1.26 to rise higher within the 1.25-1.28 range. Else any break below 1.2500-1.2450, if seen, can be bearish. USDJPY is rising as expected and can test 158 soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends to 160 or falls back to previous levels will have to be seen. EURJPY, on a break past 164 can turn bullish towards 166-167 in the near term. USDINR tested 85.21 on Tuesday as expected and now while it sustains above 85.10, it can extend the ongoing rise to 85.40/50 in the coming weeks.
Dollar Index (108.092) was closed yesterday for Christmas eve. Immediate support region can be seen around 108.00-107.50 above which the Index can gradually rise towards 109-109.50 in the near term. Only a break below 107.50-107 if seen, can negate this expected rise.
EURUSD (1.0398) can extend to 1.0350 in the coming sessions while below 1.04. Immediate resistances are seen near 1.045 and higher at 1.0550 which if holds can keep Euro to trade within 1.0550/0450-1.0350/0300 region for a while. A fall below 1.03 is not anticipated for now.
EURINR (88.7909) seems to have its upside capped at 89.00-89.50. Unless a break past 90 is seen, the immediate range of 90.00/89.50-88.00 can hold for some time.
Dollar-Yen (157.46) is rising as expected and can test 158 soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends to 160 and higher or falls back to previous levels will have to be seen. Overall, the downside can be limited to 155-154 in the near term.
EURJPY (163.73) is slowly inching up higher. A decisive break past 164 can make the outlook bullish towards 166-167 in the near term.
USDCNY (7.2981) is hovering near 7.30. While the immediate support around current levels and lower at 7.25 holds, the rise can extend to 7.35 in the near term.
Aussie (0.6248) has traded within a narrow region of 0.6265-0.6219 since the last few sessions, making it uncertain for now. Immediate support is coming at 0.62 and resistance at 0.6300-0.6350. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. Till then, it can move within the 0.6350/06300-0.6200 region.
Pound (1.2529) looks stable above 1.25 for now. A rise past 1.26 will be needed to take it higher within its broad range of 1.25-1.28. Only a break below 1.2500/2450, if seen, can be strongly bearish in the medium term.
USDINR (85.1930) was closed yesterday on account of Christmas. The pair tested 85.21 on Tuesday as expected. Now, while it trades above the immediate support near 85.10, it can extend the rise towards 84.40/50 in the upcoming weeks.
The US Treasury and the German yields sustain higher. The outlook is bullish for both the yields. More rise is on the cards in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. The broader downtrend has resumed, and the yield can fall more from here.
The US 10Yr (4.59%) and 30Yr (4.77%) yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact. The yields can rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) while above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.32%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) continues to remain higher and stable. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 2.4%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.8066%) remains lower. The downtrend can resume, and the yield can fall to 6.7%-6.65%.
The Dow Jones surged above 43000 and closed just below our mentioned target of 43300. A maximum extension to 43500-44000 is possible before seeing a fall towards 42000-41800. DAX is closed today. Nifty is struggling to rise past 23,900. It can trade within 23500-24100 for the near term. Nikkei sustained above 39,000 and could advance further toward 39,500-40,000. Shanghai remains below 3,400 and may oscillate within the 3,400-3,350 range. A break on either side is required for further directional clarity.
The Dow (43297.03, +0.91%) is rising towards the 43300-43500 region in line with our expectations. An extended rise to 44000 is also a possibility but not beyond that. We expect the Dow to resume its downtrend from 43500 0or 44000 and fall to 42000-41800 in the coming weeks. A sustained rise above 44000 will only prove this view wrong.
DAX (19848.77) is closed for Christmas for three days (From Tuesday to Thursday).
Nifty ((23727.65, -0.11%) is struggling to breach 23900 and move up towards 24100. As mentioned earlier, the near-term outlook is mixed. Nifty can oscillate in the range of 23500-24100 for some time.
Nikkei (39336.34, +0.53%) has risen above 39,000, and further upside to 39500-40000 is possible. However, failing to hold above 39,000 could shift the outlook towards 38,000. Overall, the index is expected to hold the range of 38,000–40,000.
Shanghai (3393.5990, +0.01%) continues to oscillate between 3400-3350. A break below 3350 is required for further downside to 3300. Else, if a rise past 3400 is seen, it can target the resistance of 3450.
Crude prices and metal prices look to range for the near term. Brent and WTI can trade between 72.5/73-75 and 69-72, while Gold, Silver, Copper can range between 2650-2600, 30.5-29.5/29.0 and 4.05-4.15/4.20 respectively. Natural Gas also looks ranged between 3.4-4.0 while below 4.
Brent ($ 73.74) rose in hopes of an increase in Chinese stimulus as per announcement by the finance ministry on Tuesday. A range of 72.5/73-75 can hold for the near term.
WTI ($ 70.25) has risen slightly. A range of 69-72 can hold for some time.
Gold ($ 2643.80) is failing to break above 2650. While below this, a range of 2650-2600 can hold for the near term. Else a break above 2650 can take it higher towards 2700.
Silver (30.32) has risen slightly but has the 21-Day moving average resistance near 30.5 below which it can range between 30.5-29.5/29.0 for some time.
Copper (4.1065) has been trading flat for the last few sessions. The range of 4.05-4.15/4.20 is expected to hold for the near term.
Natural Gas (3.4280) has plunged to a low of 3.3960. The resistance at 4 is holding well and while below this, a range of 3.4-4.0 can hold for some time. A sustained break above 4 is needed to see higher levels of 4.5-4.8.
No major data release today
DATA YESTERDAY:
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No major data released Yesterday