The Dollar Index is oscillating above the immediate support around 107.75. While the support holds, it can rise towards 109-109.50. Euro, EURINR and Aussie continue to trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6300-0.6200 respectively until a decisive break is seen on either side. The pound has bounced well from the support at 1.25 but can face rejection around 1.2650. USDJPY needs to see a rise past 158 to head towards 160 or higher. EURJPY, above 164 can test 166-167 on the upside. At the same time, any fall below 164 can make it vulnerable to test 162 in the coming sessions. USDCNY is oscillating below the target of 7.30. While it trades above 7.25, the overall view is bullish towards 7.35. USDINR rose to a high of 85.81 on Friday before coming down. We anticipate that the pair can remain stable below 85.65 for the next 1-2 weeks and can test 85.20/10 before moving higher.

Dollar Index (107.982) is hovering above the immediate support around 107.75 region above which it can gradually ascend towards 109-109.50 in the near term. Only a decisive break below 107.50 can negate the anticipated rise.

EURUSD (1.0427) is slowly inching higher and on a break past 1.0450, it can head towards 1.050-1.053. Overall, it can continue to trade within its immediate range of 1.0450-1.0350 and broad range of 1.0550-1.0300 until a decisive break is seen on either side. A fall below 1.03 is not anticipated for now.

EURINR (89.0520) started coming off from the high of 89.3560. Unless a strong break past 90 is seen, the immediate range of 90.00/89.50-88.00 can hold for some time with the upside capped at 89.50-90.00.

Dollar-Yen (157.81) is unable to see a sustained rise past 158, which will be needed to extend the rise to 160 and higher. Watch price action closely around the current levels to see whether it rises further or declines from here. In either case, the downside can be limited to 155-154 for now.

EURJPY (164.56) looks stable above 164 for now. While it holds, a rise to 166-167 looks likely in the near term. Only failure to sustain above 164 can bring it lower to 162.

USDCNY (7.2980) is trading flat below 7.30 since the last few sessions, making the immediate view uncertain. For now, while the support around 7.28 and lower at 7.25 holds, the rise can extend to 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6232) is trading within a very narrow range of 0.63-0.62. The immediate view is a bit indecisive in the very near term. A break on either side of the range will be needed for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.2577) has bounced well from the support of 1.25. Immediate resistance is coming within 1.2600-1.2650 region, below which it can again fall back towards 1.25. A near-term range of 1.25-1.26/2650 and a broad range of 1.25-1.28 can hold for a while.

USDINR (85.3680) surged significantly to the high of 85.81 before coming down to the current levels on the NDF on possible RBI intervention. Going ahead, we expect the USDINR to hold below 85.65 for the next 1-2 weeks and fall towards 85.20/10 before eventually rising higher.

The US Treasury yields have risen well and are keeping intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more going forward. The German yields have risen sharply and have come up to their resistances in line with our expectation. A break above the immediate resistance can see an extended rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI tested its resistance zone and then came down again. While the resistance holds, the yields can fall in the coming days. Only a strong break above the resistance will negate the bearish view.

The US 10Yr (4.62%) and 30Yr (4.81%) yields have risen well. The bullish view is intact to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) while above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.39%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) yields have risen sharply. The 30Yr has risen above 2.6%. If this sustains 2.8% can be seen on the upside. The 10Yr on the other hand can rise to 2.6% on a break above 2.45%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8180%) rose to 6.8369% and has come down from there. A sustained rise above 6.84% is needed to negate our bearish view of seeing a fall to 6.7%-6.65%. Only then a rise to 6.9% and higher will come into the picture. Wait and watch.

The Dow Jones turned lower, closing below 43,000. A sustained rise above 43,400 is necessary to trigger a rally towards 44,000. Otherwise, the index may decline further to 42,000-41,800. DAX has held above 19,800 and risen well but can find resistance near 20100/200 from where a decline to 19600/500 looks likely. Nifty faced rejection at 24,000 but managed to close slightly higher. It continues to trade within the range of 23,600-24,000, maintaining its sideways movement unless a clear breakout is seen on either side of the range. Nikkei, after reaching a high of 40,398, has declined and is now trading below 40,000. A close above 40,000 is critical to sustain the bullish momentum and target 41,000. Shanghai remains steady above 3,400. While it holds above this level, the index could rise to test the resistance at 3,450.

The Dow (42992.21, -0.77%) seems to be turning down from around 43400 itself. A further fall from here can take it down to 42000-41800. We reiterate that a sustained rise above 44000 is needed to negate the bearish view.

DAX (19984.32, +0.68%) has risen back but may find resistance at 20100-20200. While this resistance holds, the view is bearish to see a fall to 19600-19500.

Nifty (23,813.40, +0.27%) rose above 23850 but did not sustain. Near-term picture looks mixed. 23600-24000 can be the trading range for some time. Have to wait for this range breakout to get clarity.

Nikkei (39979.63, -0.75%) has pulled back from its recent high of 40,398. A close above 40,000 is crucial to sustain the bullish outlook for a potential rise toward 41,000. Failure to achieve this could result in the index retreating to its previous range.

Shanghai (3408.2246, +0.24%) continues to trade slightly above 3400, attempting to hold this level. A decisive move above 3400 could push the index higher toward resistance at 3450. Conversely, failure to maintain levels above 3400 might trigger a pullback to 3350 or lower.

Brent and WTI have risen slightly on Friday. A range of 73-75 (Brent) and 69-72 (WTI) can hold for some time. Metal prices can also remain ranged between 2650-2600 (Gold), 29.0-30.5 (Silver) and 4.15/4.20-4.05 (Copper) for the near term. Natural Gas looks bullish towards 3.8-4.0.

Brent ($ 73.89) tested a high of 74.29 on Friday after the weekly EIA crude inventories fell more than expected. A range of 73-75 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 70.60) rose slightly on Friday. It can trade within the range of 69-72 in the upcoming sessions.

Gold ($ 2638.40) is holding below 2650 for now. It needs to surpass this level to see a rise towards 2700, else can fall back to 2600 and range between 2650-2600 for some time. A wait and watch scenario for now.

Silver (30.03) trades below 30.5 and while below this level, it can fall to 29 and range between 30.5-29.0 for the upcoming weeks.

Copper (4.1385) can trade within the range of 4.15/4.20-4.05 for the near term.

Natural Gas (3.6910) closed lower at 3.38 on Friday but has opened higher with a gap up today at 3.65. It can rise further towards 3.8-4.0 in the near term.

06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 48.8 … Expected 49.5 … Previous 49.0

DATA FRIDAY:
————-
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.4% …Expected 2.5% …Previous
2.5% … Actual 2.5%