The Dollar Index is holding above support at 107.75 and can rise towards 109-109.50. On the other hand, Euro, EURINR and Aussie will have to decisively break on either side of the respective ranges for further directional clarity but until then can continue to trade within 1.0450/0550-1.0350/0300, 89.50/90.00-88.00 and 0.6300-0.6200 respectively. The pound faced rejection from 1.26 as expected. A rise past 1.2650 will be needed to rise further, else it can test 1.25, while below 1.2650. USDJPY is coming off and if the fall extends further, a test to 155-154 can happen in the coming sessions. EURJPY has slipped below 164 and can test the support at 162 soon. USDCNY is oscillating below the target of 7.30. While it trades above 7.25, the overall view is bullish towards 7.35. USDINR rose to the level of 85.5925 yesterday. For now, our view remains intact of the pair sustaining below 85.65 for this week and extending the fall to 85.40/35. Watch out for the US Case Schiller Data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.977) initially fell to the low of 107.739 yesterday before heading towards 108.377. The support around 107.75 seems to be holding well above which, it can gradually ascend towards 109-109.50 in the near term. Only a decisive break below 107.50 can negate the anticipated rise.

EURUSD (1.0409) indeed rose past 1.0450 but could not sustain and started coming off from the high of 1.0458 itself. It can continue to trade within its immediate range of 1.0450-1.0350 and broad range of 1.05-1.03 in the near term unless a decisive break is seen on either side. A fall below 1.03 is not anticipated for now.

EURINR (89.0404) is trading higher within its near-term range of 90.00/89.50-88.00. Unless a strong break past 90 is seen, the range can persist for some time.

Dollar-Yen (156.39) started coming off sharply from the level of 158.074. Even if the fall extends further, the downside can be limited to 155-154 for now. On the upside, only a rise past 158 can bring the 160 or higher targets into the picture.

EURJPY (162.86) failed to sustain its rise past 164 and fell sharply from the high of 164.905 itself. A near-term support is coming around 162 which can hold and again take it higher towards previous levels in the coming sessions. Only a decisive break below 162 if seen, can make the outlook bearish for a while. Watch price action around 162 closely.

USDCNY (7.2972) is trading flat below 7.30 since the last few sessions, making the immediate view uncertain. For now, while the support around 7.28 and lower at 7.25 holds, the rise can extend to 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6227) continues to trade within a very narrow range of 0.63-0.62. The immediate view is a bit indecisive in the very near term. A break on either side of the range will be needed for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.2556) seems to be holding well below the mentioned resistance around 1.2600-1.2650 region as it tested 1.2607 before coming down. The pair will have to see a strong break past 1.2650, else while below it; a fall to 1.25 cannot be ruled out. A near-term range of 1.26/2650-1.2500 and a broad range of 1.28-1.25 can hold for a while.

USDINR (85.4950) tested 85.5925 yesterday before closing at 85.5350. For now, we retain our view of the pair holding below 85.65 this week thereby extending the downside to 85.40/35.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. But supports are there to limit the downside. We expect yields to sustain above their support and rise back to keep the uptrend intact. The German yields have dipped slightly. A strong rise above the immediate resistance is needed for the yields to see an extended rise. Else they can fall back. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI seems to be struggling to rise. It looks vulnerable to break the immediate support and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.53%) and 30Yr (4.74%) yields have come down sharply. But support is there at 4.5%-4.45% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.65% (30Yr) while above which the outlook will remain bullish. The yields can rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.59%) yields have dipped slightly. 2.4%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) are crucial levels. A sustained rise above these resistances is needed to get an extended rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8049%) is struggling to rise and has come down. The chances are looking high to break 6.8% and fall to 6.7%-6.65% in the coming days. A sustained break above 6.84% is needed to negate the bearish view and take the yield up to 6.9% and higher.

The Dow Jones took a nosedive to a low of 42263 before easing off above 42500. Further fall towards 42000-41800 looks possible. DAX closed lower. While below 20100-20200, it looks bearish towards 19500. Nifty slipped and closed near the lower end of the range of 23600-24000. A break below 23600 would take the index down to 23000. Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai trades around 3400. The immediate view remains mixed and could hold the range of 3350-3450.

The Dow (42573.73, -0.97%) has resumed the fall as expected. The bearish view is intact. It can fall to 42000-41800.

DAX (19909.14, -0.38%) trades lower. It can fall to 19600-19500 while it remains below the 20100-20200 resistance zone.

Nifty (23644.90, -0.71%) has come down within its 23600-24000 range. It looks vulnerable to break 23600 and fall to 23000 in the coming days.

Nikkei (39894.32, -0.96%) is closed today. The index closed yesterday below 40000. While below 40000, it could trade within the range of 38000-40000. A rise past 40,000 is crucial to sustain the bullish outlook for a potential rise toward 41,000.

Shanghai (3400.7395, -0.19%) continues to trade around 3,400. A decisive move above 3,400 could push the index higher toward the resistance at 3,450. Conversely, failure to maintain levels above 3,400 might trigger a pullback to 3,350 or lower.

Brent and WTI continue to rise and while the immediate resistances hold, they can continue to trade within the range of 75.0-73/72.5 and 72-69 respectively. Gold must break either side of the range to get clarity on further movement. Whereas, Silver and Copper can trade within the range of 29.0-30.5 and 4.15-4.05 respectively for some time. Natural Gas needs a sustained break above 4 to be bullish towards 4.4-4.6.

Brent ($ 74.43) rose to 74.50 yesterday due to tighter US supplies. Immediate resistance at 75 can push the price down to 73-72.5 in the near term and keep it ranged between 75.0-73/72.5 for some time.

WTI ($ 71.47) has risen to the upper end of the range. While the immediate resistance at 72 holds, it can fall back to 70-69 and range between 72-69 for the upcoming sessions.

Gold ($ 2620.70) fell to its immediate support at 2608 in line with our expectations. We have to wait and watch price action near crucial levels of 2650 and 2600. A sustained break on either side of the range is needed to get clarity on movement for the upcoming months.

Silver (29.42) has fallen as expected. It can test immediate support at 29 in the near term before a bounce back to 30.0-30.5 is seen.

Copper (4.0930) has dipped slightly. The earlier mentioned range of 4.15-4.05 can hold for some time.

Natural Gas (3.9290) surged to an year high of 4.20 due to colder outlook for next month, which will boost heating demand for nat-gas but has fallen back to close below 4.0. It needs a sustained break above 4 to confirm further bullishness towards 4.4-4.6.

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
… Exp – … Expected 4.1% … Previous 4.6%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 48.8 … Expected 49.5 … Previous 49.5 … Actual 49.6