The Dollar Index remains bullish towards 110-111 in the near term, while Euro on a confirmed break below 1.03 can drag the pair to 1.02 or even 1.00 in the medium term. EURINR and AUDUSD need to see a decisive break on either side of their respective ranges of 90-88 and 0.63-0.62 for further directional clarity. USDJPY on a sustained rise past 158.50, can head towards 160 or higher in the coming sessions. Pound appears bearish towards 1.22 or even 1.20 on the downside. EURJPY has slipped slightly below 163 and can get extended to 162-160. USDCNY can gradually head towards 7.35. USDINR is rising as expected and can test 86 in the near term.

Dollar Index (109.174) is rising as expected and remains bullish towards 110-111. On the other hand, the EURUSD (1.0303) has interim resistance coming at 1.0350 and it can fall towards 1.02 while below 1.0450 and on a confirmed break below 1.03. Watch out for the US NFP and US Unemployment data release today for near term directional clarity.

EURINR (88.4827) looks stable above 88 for now but has immediate upside capped at 89. A decisive break on either side of its broad range of 90-88 is needed for further directional clarity. If EURUSD breaks below 1.03, then the cross can be vulnerable to fall below 88 as well.

Dollar-Yen (158.07) is hovering below its immediate resistance around 158.50. A break above it will be needed to test 160-162 in the coming sessions. Else, it can again fall back within its range of 156-158.

EURJPY (162.98) has slipped slightly below 163. Further fall below current levels can drag the pair to 162-160. Only a rise past 165 can negate the expected fall and take it higher to 167 or even 170 in the medium term. Watch price action closely around current levels.

USDCNY (7.3313) is trading flat since the last couple of sessions, thereby delaying our targets. For now, we retain our upside target of 7.35. Thereafter, an extended rise to 7.40 can happen but needs confirmation above 7.35. Overall, the view is bullish for now.

Aussie (0.6196) has dipped below the crucial support of 0.62. Further if the fall continues, it can extend to 0.61-0.60 in the near term. Overall, view remains bearish below 0.6250-0.6300.

Pound (1.2306) tested a low of 1.237 yesterday before it recovered a bit from there, in line with our expectations of seeing a dip to 1.22. Interim resistance is coming at 1.24 and higher at 1.26, below which pair looks bearish to 1.22 or even 1.20 in the near term.

USDINR (85.8820) tested the high of 85.9325 before closing lower. The downside could be limited to 85.80/75 while it can head towards 86 soon.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to remain higher. Both the yields have room to rise further from here. The German yields are coming close to a key resistance though and the price action after testing the resistance will need a close watch. The US non-farm payroll (NFP) and the unemployment data release today will be an important data release to watch today. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. A near-term fall is likely before a rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.68%) and 30Yr (4.92%) yields continue to remain higher and stable. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and the 30Yr (2.77%) yields have inched up. The rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation. As mentioned yesterday, the price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a reversal is happening or not.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7646%) has dipped slightly. We retain our view of seeing a fall to 6.7%-6.65% while below 6.8%. A strong rise above 6.8% is needed to negate this fall.

The Dow Jones was closed yesterday in observance of the National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter. DAX initially fell to test the support at 20200 before recovering slightly. While the index remains above 20200, a rise toward 20700 is possible. Nifty fell during the session yesterday but managed to sustain and close above 23500. A break below 23500 could lead to further decline towards 23000. We need to watch cautiously. Nikkei, trading within the range of 38000-40000, is moving lower, and a break below 39000 could push the index down to 38000. Shanghai continues to oscillate around 3200. While it remains below 3250, the index is vulnerable to a decline toward 3150.

The Dow (42635.20) was closed on Thursday on account of the National Day of Mourning for the death of former President Jimmy Carter.

DAX (20317.10, -0.06%) has dipped but sustains well above 20200. The outlook is bullish to see 20700 while the DAX remains above 20200.

Nifty (23526.30, -0.69%) has come down and is now poised near the lower end of the 23500-24100. The index looks vulnerable to break 23500 and fall to 23000. We will have to wait and watch cautiously.

Nikkei (39442.90, -0.49%) has fallen further and now trades below 39500. Within its broader range of 38000-40000, a break below 39000 could lead to a drop towards 38000.

Shanghai (3214.0764, +0.09%) is fluctuating near 3200. The index continues to hold within the 3250-3150 range and could move lower to test 3150 if it sustains a break below 3200.

Crude prices remain below their respective resistance levels and appear bearish, with potential declines towards $ 75-74 (Brent) and $ 72-71 (WTI). Gold, Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas have risen and may continue to rise towards 2720-2750, 31.5-32.0, 4.4-4.5, and 4.0, respectively, in the near term.

Brent ($ 77.12) rose slightly to $ 77.27 yesterday. While the resistance at $ 77.5 holds, a decline towards $ 75-74 is expected in the near term.

WTI ($ 74.17) has risen slightly, but as long as the resistance at $ 75 holds, our outlook remains for a fall towards $ 72-71.

Gold ($ 2693.90) has moved higher as expected, approaching 2700. A further rise towards 2720-2750 is anticipated in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 31.08) rose to a high of 31.27 before closing at 31.02 yesterday. While above 31.0, the bullish outlook towards 31.5-32.0 remains intact.

Copper ($ 4.3360) has surged to 4.3495. It may rise further towards its immediate resistance near 4.4-4.5 in the near term. If this resistance holds, a decline towards 4.2-4.1 is possible; however, a sustained break above 4.5 would confirm further bullishness towards 4.8-5.0.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6920) surged to a high of 3.83 as expected. A further rise towards 4.0 is likely in the near term.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 5.3% … Expected – … Previous 3.5%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 143K … Expected 150K … Previous 227K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp 4.1% … Expected 4.2% … Previous 4.2%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.5 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.3

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 24.5K … Previous 50.5K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 5.6 … Previous 5.7 …Actual 6.0

1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.2 …Actual

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -2.5 …Actual

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.0% … Expected 0.3% … Previous -0.3% …Actual 0.1%