The Dollar Index has been coming off since the last two sessions but while above 109.00-108.75, the view remains intact to see a rise towards 111. The Euro has risen well but could face rejection around 1.0300-1.0350 region. EURINR is trading higher but still needs to see a decisive break on either side of its range of 90-88 for further directional clarity. USDJPY continues to remain stable within its earlier range of 156-158-159, a rise past which can only bring the upper targets of 160-162 back into the picture. AUDUSD and Pound, below 0.6250 and 1.24/26 appear bearish towards 0.61-0.60, 1.20 respectively in the near term. EURJPY is headed towards the crucial resistance at 164. USDCNY can gradually head towards 7.35. USDINR, as anticipated has risen well and can soon test 86.70 on the upside. The downside could be limited to 86.40. Watch out for the US CPI data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (109.642) has been coming off after testing 110.17 on Monday. Immediate support is coming around 109.00-108.75 region, above which we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 111 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0297) is attempting to rise back but the overall upside is capped between 1.0300-1.0350. While these resistances hold, the Euro can fall back towards 1.02 or even 1.01 in the near term.

EURINR (89.1450) is trading higher within its broad range of 88-90. But the range is likely to persist for a while until a decisive break on either side of 90/89-88 is seen.

Dollar-Yen (157.92) is unable to sustain its rise past 158. Only a strong break past 158.50-159.00 can take it higher to 160-162. Else, it can continue to trade within 156-158-159 region for a while.

EURJPY (162.66) has extended its rise further but a strong resistance is coming at 164. Need to see whether it holds or the cross breaks past it to rise further. Only a break below 160 can drag it further to 157-156 in the medium term. Watch price action closely around current levels.

USDCNY (7.3311) has continued to remain steady around the 7.33 region. Low volatility is making the pair uncertain at the moment, and it is delaying our targets as well. Still, we retain our view of upside target of 7.35 and even 7.40 on a confirmed rise past 7.35.

Aussie (0.6189) and Pound (1.2198) have risen well so far but could be limited to 0.6250 and 1.24/26. Below these resistances, our downside targets of 0.61-0.60 and 1.20 cannot be ruled out. Overall, the view remains bearish.

USDINR (86.5400) is rising in line with our bullish view and can soon test 86.70 on the upside. The immediate downside can be limited to 86.40.

The US Treasury yields are inching closer to their key resistance. The yields have to break their resistance to go further higher from here itself. Else a corrective fall can happen first before the upmove resumes. The US CPI data release today can be key in deciding that. The German yields are getting a strong follow-through rise. That keeps the uptrend intact and there can be an extended rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support can limit the downside and take the yield higher in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.78%) and 30Yr (4.97%) yields are inching up towards 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) – the key immediate resistance. We reiterate that the yields have to breach this resistance to clear the way for an extended rise to 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) straightaway. Else a corrective fall to 4.6% (10Yr), 4.8% (30Yr) can happen first before the uptrend resumes.

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and the 30Yr (2.85%) yields seem to be getting a good follow-through rise. So, while they sustain above 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr), the outlook is bullish for a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8218%) has come down but may find support at 6.8%. While above 6.8%, the bias is positive to see 6.9% on the upside.

The Dow Jones has advanced and could test the 42,600-42,700 range before potentially declining toward 41,500-41,300. The DAX has climbed above 20,200; sustained follow-through buying could push the index higher toward 20,700 or higher. The Nifty may see a corrective bounce to 23,500 before resuming its downtrend towards 22500. The Nikkei is holding above 38,000 and is making an attempt to rise toward 39,000 or higher. The Shanghai index has eased after reaching a high of 3,245 and is currently consolidating within the 3,150-3,250 range.

The Dow (42518.28, +0.52%) continues to move up and can test 42600-42700. Thereafter it can reverse lower and break 41800 for a fall to 41500-41300.

DAX (20271.33, +0.69%) has risen back above 20200. If it gets a strong follow-through rise from here, then 20,700-21,000 can be seen on the upside. That will negate the fall to 20000-19800 that we have been expecting. Wait and watch.

Nifty (23176.05, +0.39%) sustains above 23000 and gets a breather. While above 23000, a corrective rise to 23400-23500 is possible. However, there is still room left of the downside to see 22500 – an important long-term support where Nifty can possibly find a bottom.

Nikkei (38628.56, +0.40%) holds above 38,000. While within the range of 38,000-40,000, a rise toward 39,000 and higher remains plausible as long as the support holds.

Shanghai (3,236.21597, -0.15%) has risen but remains just below 3,250, maintaining the expected range of 3,150-3,250. If it sustains below 3,250, a decline toward 3,200 is possible. Conversely, a break above 3,250 could lead to extended gains toward 3,300-3,350.

Crude remains biased for a rise towards 82-84 (Brent) and 80-82 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver can test their respective support levels before a rise towards 2700 and 31-32 is seen. Copper can test its immediate resistance at 4.4 before a fall to 4.2-4.0 happens. Natural Gas can move further up towards 4.2-4.4.

Brent ($ 79.87) and WTI ($ 77.57) have fallen slightly. Our outlook remains biased for a rise towards 82-84 and 80-82 respectively for the near term.

Gold ($ 2687.30) can fall to 2650 in the near term. Going ahead, it can bounce back from there to break higher above 2700 and target 2800-2900 in the upcoming weeks.

Silver (30.39) can fall to 30 in the near term before a bounce back to 31-32 is seen.

Copper (4.3285) is inching up gradually and can test 4.4 in the coming sessions before a fall to 4.2-4.0 takes place.

Natural Gas (3.88) rose to 4.05 yesterday as expected. A further rise towards 4.2-4.4 looks likely for the near term.

7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
… Exp 2.9% … Expected 2.6% … Previous 2.6%

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.0%

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -37.8

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
… Exp 2.46% … Expected 2.30% … Previous 1.89% …Actual 2.37%

13:30 19:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.1% … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.2%

13:30 19:00 US Core PPI
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.1