The Dollar Index rose past 109 on stronger data releases on Friday and the view remains intact to see a rise towards 111. The Euro can fall to 1.02 or lower in the near term while below 1.03-1.04. EURINR continues to remain volatile within the 90-88 region. USDJPY has bounced well from support around 155 and there could be scope to see a rise back towards 158 in the near term. AUDUSD and Pound appear bearish towards 0.61-0.60 and 1.20 respectively while below 0.6250 and 1.24/26. EURJPY looks stable above 160 for now but the upside looks capped at 164. On the downside, a break below 160 will be needed to bring 157-156 back into the picture. USDCNY can gradually head towards 7.35. USDINR can gradually head towards 86.80 by the end of Jan’25. Any dips if witnessed can be limited to 86.50/40 for now.

Stronger data releases of US Housing Starts, US Industrial Production and US Capacity Utilization at 1499k, 0.9%, 77.6% respectively led Dollar Index (109.194) to rise past 109 again. Overall, the view remains bullish towards 111 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0290) has slipped below 1.03 on the Dollar strength. While the interim resistance at 1.03 and higher at 1.04 holds, a fall to 1.020-1.015 can happen.

EURINR (88.0335) can trade within a narrow region of 89.50-88.50 and a broad region of 90-88 for a while, until a break is seen on either side.

Dollar-Yen (155.89) held the support around 155 as expected and even bounced to the current levels. While the support at 155 holds; it has scope to rise back towards 158.

EURJPY (160.43) indeed slipped below 160 but could not sustain and recovered from the low of 159.72 itself. Even if the rise extends further, the upside can be capped at 164 for now. Charts have room to see a fall towards 157-156 but a confirmed break below 160 will be needed for that.

USDCNY (7.3149) has fallen contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise towards 7.35 and eventually to 7.40. A range of 7.30-7.33 can hold for the very near term.

Aussie (0.6206) and Pound (1.2188) are coming off as expected and while the resistances at 0.6250-0.6300 and 1.24/26 holds respectively, the outlook appears bearish to 0.61-0.60 and 1.20 respectively.

USDINR (86.4980) closed at 86.6150 on Friday. By the Jan’25 end, we expect USDINR to gradually head towards 86.80. Overall, the view remains bullish and any dips if seen can be limited to 86.50/40 for now.

The US Treasury yields have inched up. The short-term outlook is bearish to see a corrective fall from here before the broader uptrend resumes. The German yields can also fall while they sustain below their immediate resistance and fail to see a strong rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has bounced but the upside can be capped. They can fall further before reversing higher again.

The US 10Yr (4.63%) and 30Yr (4.86%) yields have inched up. A test of 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) and an extended fall to 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) looks likely. Thereafter the overall uptrend resumes targeting 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.53%) and the 30Yr (2.76%) yields have dipped slightly. View remains the same. While below 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) the yields can fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr). That in turn will negate the rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7653%) has bounced back. But while below 6.8%, it can still fall to 6.7%-6.65% before rising back again.

The Dow Jones and DAX have risen well. A follow-through rise would take the Dow Jones higher towards 44000-45000 and the DAX towards 21300-21500. Nifty turned lower to 23200; further, below 23500, it could test the 23000-22800 range or even lower to 22500. The Nikkei has held above 38000 and risen toward 39000. A continued rise toward 40000 appears likely. The Shanghai index climbed above 3250. While it sustains above 3250-3200 level, it has room to advance further toward 3300-3350.

The Dow (43487.83, +0.78%) has risen further and can rise to 44000 now. Looking at the monthly candles, the 41850-45100 range seems to remain intact. So, a rise above 44000 can take it up to 45000. Our earlier view of seeing a fall to 41500-41000 may not happen.

DAX (20903.39, +1.2%) has risen above 20700. That has cleared the way to see 21300-21500 on the upside.

Nifty (23203.20, -0.47%) has turned down well before 23500 and can test 23000-22800 or even 22500 now. 22500 is a long-term support from where Nifty can rise back again.

Nikkei (38,945.42, +1.29%) , within the range of 38000-4000, stayed above 38000 and is rising towards 39000. It could extend the rise to 40000.

Shanghai (3,259.2864, +0.55%) has risen above 3,250. While it sustains above 3250-3200 region, it has room to witness a rise towards 3300-3350.

Crude prices have fallen and can head towards 80-79 (Brent) and 76-75 (WTI) in the near term before continuing their bullishness. Gold and Silver can rise towards 2800-2850 and 32 in the near term while Copper and Natural Gas can fall towards 4.3-4.2 and 3.6 soon.

Brent ($ 80.66) and WTI ($ 77.28) have fallen sharply contrary to our expectations. They could extend the fall further towards 80-79 and 76-75 respectively before continuing their bullishness.

Gold ($ 2739) is holding above 2700 and while above it, our view remains intact to see a rise towards 2800-2850.

Silver (30.96) has broken just below 31 but will have to sustain lower to see further dip. Else, a rise towards 32 looks likely for the near term.

Copper (4.3315) has reversed back sharply below 4.4 after testing a high of 4.47 on Friday. The initial break above 4.4 looks like a false one and while below 4.4, a fall towards 4.3-4.2 can take place in the near term.

Natural Gas (3.7820) fell sharply from the high of 4.30 to close at 3.90 on Friday. Immediate support at 3.6 can be tested in the near term before being bullish towards 4.4-4.5 in the coming weeks.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
————-
10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
… Exp 2.1% … Expected 2.4% … Previous 2.2% … Actual 2.4

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
… Exp 1283K … Expected 1330K … Previous 1294K … Actual 1499K

14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
… Exp -0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2% … Actual 0.9%

14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
… Exp 76.5% … Expected 77.0% … Previous 77% … Actual 77.6%

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
… Exp – … Expected 159.9 … Previous 159.1 …Actual 78.95K