Major Currencies witnessed sharp movements amid speculations on the Trump’s Tariffs policy. The Dollar Index is back near its support around 108.00-107.75. We need to see whether it holds or extends the fall further. The Euro has risen well but the possible rejection region is coming around 1.0450. EURINR needs to decisively break past 90 to head towards 91, until then a range of 90-88 can hold. USDJPY has sustained well above 155 and there could be scope to see a rise back towards 158 in the near term. AUDUSD and Pound will have to rise past 0.63 and 1.24 to negate a fall towards 0.61-0.60 and 1.20 respectively. EURJPY has immediate upside capped at 164 and a break below 160 if seen, can drag it lower to 157-156. USDCNY has been coming off sharply but could find support near 7.25 region. USDINR is moving in line with our expectations and a range of 86.20-86.60 can hold in the near term.

Dollar Index (108.108) remained volatile as the markets continued speculating the impact of tariffs. A high of 108.794 was seen before the index came down eventually. Still, a decisive break below 107.75 will be needed to make the outlook further bearish. Immediate upside could be capped at 109.

EURUSD (1.0410) has risen past 1.04 again. 1.0450 could be the next hurdle for the pair, a break past which can take it towards 1.05 or even higher. On the contrary, failure to sustain above 1.04 can make it vulnerable to test 1.0350-1.0300 on the downside.

EURINR (90.0991) had risen slightly above 90 but could not sustain and started coming off from the level of 90.2649 itself. A decisive break past 90 can bring 91 into picture; until then, its broad range of 88-90 can persist.

Dollar-Yen (155.67) has sustained well above the support around 155. While it holds, a rise back towards 158 can happen. Only a strong break below 155 if seen, can be bearish for the pair.

EURJPY (162.16) ha upside capped at 164 for now and on the downside a break below 160 will be needed to bring 157-156 into the picture. For now, the cross can oscillate within a broad region of 160-164 for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.2760) has been coming off since the last few sessions. Deeper support is coming around 7.25, above which it can bounce back again. Our earlier expected target of 7.35 can get delayed or might not just happen if the pair breaks below 7.25.

Aussie (0.6268) and Pound (1.2336) needs to see a strong rise past 0.6300 and 1.24 to rise further. Else while the respective resistances hold, a fall to towards 0.62-0.61 and 1.20 respectively cannot be ruled out.

USDINR (86.4870) opened lower at 86.2950 as expected before eventually closing around 86.50. Even if the rise extends further; we retain our view of seeing a range of 86.20-86.60 holding for a while. Our target of 86.80 can get delayed or may not happen if 86.60 holds as decent upper limit in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have bounced. But the near-term outlook is negative. There is room to fall more before the broader uptrend resumes. The German yields continue to dip. The outlook is bearish, and yields can continue to fall. The 10Yr GoI is coming down as expected. It can fall further to test its key support and then possibly reverse higher again.

The US 10Yr (4.59%) and 30Yr (4.82%) yields have bounced slightly. But the near-term view remains negative to see 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) on the downside. Thereafter the broader uptrend can resume and target 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and the 30Yr (2.73%) yields continue to dip. The bearish view of seeing a fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) remains intact while below 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7373%) has come down and keeps intact our view of testing 6.7%-6.65%. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The Dow Jones and DAX have risen well and closed above 44000 and 21000. Further, a bullish view towards 45000 and 21300-21500 remains intact. Nifty dipped towards 23000, and while below 23200, it remains vulnerable to breaking below 23000 and moving towards the crucial long-term support at 22500. Nikkei has surged above 39500 and is heading towards 40000. Shanghai is heading towards the support near 3200-3150.

The Dow (44025.81, 1.24%) has risen to 44000 much faster than expected. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it up to 45000. As mentioned yesterday the 41850-45100 range seen on the monthly candles is intact.

DAX (21042, 0.25%) sustains higher. Bullish view is intact to see 21300-21500 on the upside.

Nifty (23024.65, -1.37%) has declined sharply towards the lower end of its 23000-23400 range. While below 23200, tt can break 23000 now and fall to 22800-22500. But note that 22500 is a strong long-term support where the fall can halt, and a reversal can be seen.

Nikkei (39604.66, +1.48%) has risen well above 39000. Further, within 38,000-40,000, it could rise to test the upper end of the sideways range and could attempt to rise past 40,000. Watch price action around 40000.

Shanghai (3,220..2727, -0.70%) has fallen below 3250. While it holds above 3200-3150, it has room to witness a rise towards 3300-3350.

Crude prices have fallen sharply to their immediate support levels after the Trump declared “National Energy Emergency” on taking presidential office yesterday. While the support holds we expect a bounce back to 82-84 and 77-79 in the near term. Gold and Silver needs a sustained break above 2760 and 32 to be bullish towards 2800-2850 and 33-34 respectively. Copper remains bearish towards 4.2. Natural Gas can test its immediate support and bounce back to 4.0-4.2 in the coming weeks.

As expected, Brent ($ 79.37) and WTI ($ 75.77) have plunged to their immediate support levels yesterday as President Trump wasted no time in declaring a “National Energy Emergency” after taking office yesterday, signing several executive orders focused on American energy. We expect the immediate support levels to hold and push the prices higher towards 82-84 and 77-79 in the upcoming weeks. Alternatively a sustained break below the respective support levels could turn bearish for the prices, dragging it down to 76-77 and 74-73 respectively.

Gold ($ 2764.50) has risen slightly above 2760. It needs to sustain above this to see a rise to higher levels of 2800-2850.

Silver (31.54) has risen above 31.5, a sustained break above 32 is needed to see further bullishness towards 33-34 in the upcoming months.

Copper (4.3195) is coming down gradually. A further fall towards 4.2 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas (3.7650) falls slightly and can test it’s immediate support at 3.6 before a bounce back to higher levels of 4.0-4.2 is seen.

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
… Exp 4.2% … Expected 4.3% … Previous 4.3% …Actual 4.4%
–
13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
… Exp – … Expected 1.9% … Previous 2.0% …Actual