The Dollar Index could have some scope to test deeper support around 106.00-105.50 region while below 108-107.75. The Euro can gradually head towards 1.0550-1.06 in the near term while above 1.0450 . EURINR can rise towards 91 soon. USDJPY is stuck within 155-157 range. AUDUSD could dip to 0.6250 while Pound trades above 1.24 and could head towards 1.26. EURJPY will have to break past 164 to rise higher, else the range of 160-164 can hold for now. USDCNY has bounced well and can test 7.28/29 if the current rise sustains. USDINR can have limited upside to 86.30/40 and it can slowly descend towards 86.00-85.90 in the coming weeks. The US New Home Sales data release is scheduled today.

Trump’s stating that he will call for lower interest rates by FED led Dollar Index (107.681) to extend its fall on Friday to the low of 107.218. The index is now attempting to rise back toward our earlier mentioned support at 107.75. Failure to rise back sharply above 107.75 can lead to a fall towards deeper support around 106.00-1.0550 in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0464) tested the high of 1.0521 on Dollar weakness. While the pair sustains above 1.0450, it can gradually head towards 1.0550-1.0600 in the near term. Overall, the view remains bullish above 1.04.

EURINR (90.3391) can target 91 on the upside while above 90. Thereafter, whether the resistance holds, or the pair extends the rise to 92 will have to be seen.

EURJPY (162.90) tested the resistance at 164 before coming down. For now, the range of 160-164 is holding well. A strong break past 164 will be needed to bring upper targets of 165 or even 167 back into the picture.

BOJ went ahead with the 25-bps rate hike, thereby bringing the rate at 0.50%. As a result Dollar-Yen (155.64) initially tested 154.84 on the downside before rising back. A narrow range of 155-157 is forming since the last few sessions. A break on either side will be needed for further clarity. If the pair slips below 155, it can turn bearish in the near term.

USDCNY (7.2636) has bounced well from 7.2371 and while that holds, a rise towards 7.28/29 looks possible.

Aussie (0.6286) has broken below 0.63 and can test 0.6250 before pausing while Pound (1.2446) can test higher resistance at 1.26 while above 1.24.

USDINR (86.3050) , on Friday slipped to the low of 86.1650 before rising back within the 86.60-86.20 range. While the range is expected to hold, it would be crucial to see if the pair can break below 86.20 to test 86.00-85.90 in the next couple of weeks.

The US Treasury yields have come down again failing to sustain the bounce. There is room to fall more before a reversal is seen. The US Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday will need a close watch. The German yields remain stable. The outlook is bearish, and they can fall more from here. The ECB meeting is on Thursday. The 10Yr GoI is coming down inline with our expectation. They can fall to test their supports and then reverse higher.

The US 10Yr (4.59%) and 30Yr (4.81%) yields have come down again. The bearish view of seeing a fall to 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr) remains intact. Thereafter the yields can reverse higher targeting 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.57%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) yields remain stable. While below 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr), the view is bearish to see a fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7206%) yield remains weak. It keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 6.7%-6.65%. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The Dow Jones, DAX, and Nifty have seen slight declines. However, the Dow Jones looks positive, with the potential to rise towards 45100. The DAX, as long as it holds above the 21300-21200, could see further gains towards 21500, potentially extending to 21850. On the other hand, Nifty has dropped sharply and appears vulnerable, with the likelihood of falling towards 22800-22500 before a possible reversal. The Nikkei failed to sustain above 41000 and has declined, suggesting a further drop towards 39000-38000. Meanwhile, Shanghai has risen above 3250, and as long as it sustains above this level, a rise towards 3300-3350 remains possible.

The Dow (44424.25, -0.32%) has come down but may find support at 44000. View remains positive to rise towards the upper end of its 41850-45100 range.

DAX (21394.93, -0.08%) has dipped slightly. Supports are at 21300-21200 and 21000. A rise to 21500 and even 21850-21900 can be seen first and then a reversal is possible.

Nifty (23092.20, -0.49%) has come-off sharply from the high of 23347 on Friday. It looks vulnerable to break the 23000-23400 range on the downside and fall to 22800-22500 ahead of the Union Budget on Saturday. Thereafter a reversal is possible. 22500 is a strong long-term support where we expect the fall to halt.

Nikkei (39699.74, -0.58%) is coming down after failing to move higher towards 41000. Further, below 40000, the index is expected to remain within the range and decline toward 39000-38000.

Shanghai (3262.1700, +0.26%) trades above 3250. While above 3250, the index is heading towards 3300-3350.

Crude prices can test their respective support levels in the near term before a bounce back to higher levels of 80-82 (Brent) and 77-79 (WTI) takes places. Gold and Natural Gas look bullish towards 2850 and 4.4, while Silver and Copper look bearish towards 30.5-30.0 and 4.2 respectively.

Brent ($ 77.65) and WTI ($ 73.86) have broken below their moving average support levels. A further fall to their interim supports near 76/75 and 73/72 can be seen in the next few sessions. Thereafter, while the support holds, a bounce back to 80-82 and 77-79 can take place in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 2768.70) saw a high of 2794 on Friday. It can continue to move further up towards 2820-2850 in the upcoming sessions.

Silver (30.79) tested it’s immediate resistance near 31.69 on Friday and has fallen slightly below 31 today. While the resistance holds, a further fall towards 30.5-30.0 looks likely for the near term.

Copper (4.2745) has tested a high of 4.38 on Friday as expected. While the resistance at 4.4 holds, we expect a fall towards 4.2 in the near term.

Natural Gas (4.02) has closed higher at 4 on Friday. Our view remains bullish towards 4.2-4.4 for the near term while above 3.8.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Climate
… Exp 84.5 … Expected 84.6 … Previous 84.7

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Situations
… Exp 84.1 … Expected 85.4 … Previous 85.1

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Bus Expectation
… Expn 83.8 … Expected 84.0 … Previous 84.4

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 695K … Expected 669K … Previous 664K

DATA FRIDAY
—————
23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.1 … Expected 3.0 … Previous 2.9 … Actual 3.7

0:01 05:31 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -16.0 … Expected -18.0 … Previous -17.0 … Actual -22.0

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.3% … Actual 0.5%

15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
… Exp 4153K … Expected 4190K … Previous 4150K actual 4240%