Dollar Index for now is holding well above immediate support around current levels and if sustained, can bounce back towards 108 or higher. Only a break below 107 can make it further bearish towards 106.00-105.50 in the near term. Euro needs to rise past 1.0450 to head towards 1.05 or 1.06. Else, can be vulnerable to test support around 1.03 region. EURINR is back within its broad range of 89/88-91 and a decisive break past it will be needed for further clarity. USDJPY is falling as expected and either from current levels or upon testing 150, can bounce back again. EURJPY can have downside limited to 158/56 max. AUDUSD and Pound are nearing the immediate resistances coming at 0.6300 and 1.26 respectively, below which view remains bearish. USDCNY is rising as anticipated and view appears bullish towards 7.30, while above 7.250/225. USDINR on a break past 87.50, can head towards 88 in the near term.

Dollar Index (107.68) yesterday extended the fall to the low of 107.29 before recovering a bit from there. Any break below 107 can initiate a fall towards deeper support around 106.00-105.50 region. For now, while the immediate support around current levels holds, there could be a scope to see a bounce back towards 1.08 or higher.

EURUSD (1.0392) had indeed risen past 1.04 but could not sustains and started coming off from the high of 1.0442 itself. For now, the downside is expected to be limited to 1.03 and a rise past 1.0450 will be needed to bring 1.05 or even 1.06 back into picture.

EURINR (90.9080) failed to hold above 91 and limited the rise to 91.1595 itself. Currently it is back within its earlier range of 88/89-91 and only a sustained rise past 91 can take the cross to 91.50-92.00. Until then range can hold for a while.

EURJPY (158.32) has been falling since the last 2-3 sessions but overall downside can be limited to 158 or 156 max. Cross can eventually bounce back again, with initially targeting 162.50.

Dollar-Yen (152.24) in line with our bearish view tested the low of 151.80 before rising back from there. The fall statement of Naoki Tamura of central bank likely to hike its benchmark rates to 1% from 0.5% in the second half of 2025, supported the fall. For now, downside is expected to be limited to 150 and either from current levels or upon testing the mentioned target, pair can bounce back again soon.

USDCNY (7.2805) has tested our initial target of 7.28. While above 7.250-2.225, view appears bullish towards 7.30 in the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break past 7.30 will be needed to bring 7.35 into picture.

Aussie (0.6272) and Pound (1.2492) are nearing the immediate resistances coming at 0.6300 and 1.26 region respectively. While it holds, pairs are anticipated to fall back again in the near term.

USDINR (87.4080) observed the high of 87.49, just below our target of 87.50. Further if the rise extends past 87.50, a test to 88 looks likely to happen. The downside is expected to be limited to 87.00-86.75 max.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. Key supports are coming up to halt the fall. We expect the yields to reverse higher from the support and resume the broader uptrend. The German yields are also coming down. The view is bearish. The yields can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its current range. The outcome of the RBI policy meeting tomorrow will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.64%) yields have declined sharply. They are now poised above their key support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) which is expected to hold. A rise from this support can take the yields above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) targeting 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) on the upside over the medium-term.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.60%) yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact. The 10Yr can fall to 2.2% while below 2.4%. The 30Yr can fall to 2.4% on a break below 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6616%) is coming down within its 6.6%-6.7250% range. We repeat that the range can remain intact. The yield can break it on the upside and rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones has gained momentum and is approaching 45100. A decisive break above this level could push the index higher towards 45400-45800. The DAX continues its upward movement, heading towards the 21800-21900. The Nifty struggles to break past 23800. A sustained move above 23800 is essential for further upside towards the key resistance at 24000. The Nikkei initially climbed above 39000 but failed to sustain higher levels and is now trading below it. While below 39000, the index is likely to decline towards 38500-38000. The Shanghai Composite remains within the broader range of 3150-3300 but is trading below 3250. If it remains under this level, a decline towards 3200-3150 is possible.

The Dow (44873.28, +0.71%) is moving up within the 44000-45100 range. A break above 45100 can take the Dow up to 45400 or even 45800.

DAX (21585.93, +0.37%) is managing to sustain higher. A further rise from here can take it up to 21800-21900. The near-term picture is unclear. 21000-22000 can be the trading range for now.

Nifty (23696.30, -0.18%) has come down, failing to breach 23800. Failure to rise back immediately can drag it down to 23500-23450. A break above 23800 is needed to go upto 24000.

Nikkei (38887.99, +0.15%) within the range of 38000-40000, it trades below 39000. Further, while below 39000, the index could decline towards 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3246.4052, +0.49%) trades below 3250 and is attempting to rise past 3250. It has resistance near 3270-3300. The overall index is expected to trade within the range of 3150-3300.

Crude prices remain bearish as weekly EIA inventories increase. They are likely to target $ 74-73 (Brent) and $ 70-69 (WTI) in the near term. Gold needs to surpass $ 2900 to turn bullish, with potential upside towards $ 3000-3100. Silver could rise to $ 33.5 in the coming sessions. Copper has risen sharply above $ 4.4 and looks bullish towards $ 4.6-4.8. Natural Gas could test $ 3.5-3.6 before turning bearish towards $ 3.0-2.8.

Brent ($ 74.72) and WTI ($ 71.28) have fallen as anticipated due to the jump in weekly EIA inventories. A further decline towards $ 74-73 and $ 70-69 is expected in the near term.

Gold ($ 2887.40) is attempting to break above $ 2900. A sustained break above this level would confirm further bullishness towards $ 3000-3100 in the coming months.

Silver ($ 32.85) continues to rise as expected and could test $ 33.5 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.4721) has surged above $ 4.4, contrary to our expectations. As long as it stays above $ 4.4, we may see further upside towards $ 4.6-4.8 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3350) has risen as anticipated. It may test $ 3.5-3.6 on the upside before a decline to $ 3.0-2.8 occurs.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous -17.9

0:30 06:00 AU Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 6.73 … Previous 7.08

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.2% … Expected -0.1% … Previous 0.1%

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 4.50% … Previous 4.75%

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
… Exp – … Expected 0-8-1 Previous 0-3-6

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… Exp 60.7 … Expected 56.8 … Previous 59.3 … Actual 56.5

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
… Exp – … Expected 51.4 … Previous 49.6 … Actual 50.2

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
… Exp – … Expected 149K … Previous 176K … Actual 183K

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected -97.1 … Previous -78.2 … Actual -98.4