Dollar Index after testing 108 on the upside, is back near its immediate support around 107.70 region. A strong immediate rise past 108 will be needed to rise further. Else break below 107 can be bearish for it. Euro below 1.04 can be vulnerable to test support around 1.03 region. EURINR is back within its broad range of 89-91 and a decisive break past it will be needed to head towards 92. USDJPY and EURJPY are falling as expected but the downside is expected to be limited to 150 and 156 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can remain ranged within 0.63-0.61 and 1.26-1.23 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is rising as anticipated and view appears bullish towards 7.30, while above 7.250/225. USDINR above 87.50, is likely to rise towards 88 in the near term. Watch out for the RBI MPC Meeting, US NFP, US Avg hrly Earnings and US Unemployment scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.699) tested 108 yesterday as expected before coming down. Immediate support around 107.70 region is holding well for now but a strong follow through rise will be needed past 108 to rise further. Else, any break below 107 can initiate a fall towards deeper support around 106.00-105.50 region.

EURUSD (1.0384) continues to trade below 1.04 and while below it, pair can again test 1.0350-1.0300. Only a rise past 1.04 can take it higher to 1.0450-1.0500.

EURINR (90.9156) is oscillating around the upper end of its range of 89-91. A strong break past 91 can take it towards 91.50-92.00 in the coming sessions. Until then range can hold.

EURJPY (157.38) observed the low of 156.76 before rising back from there. For now, preferred view is to see the support around 156 to hold and produce a bounce back towards 162.50 in the coming sessions. Watch price action closely around 156.

Dollar-Yen (151.60) extended its fall to the low of 150.95 before recovering a bit from there. Overall, we retain our view of pair having limited downside to 150 and that it can bounce back again towards 153-154 soon.

USDCNY (7.2878) can soon test 7.30 in the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break past 7.30 will be needed to bring 7.35 into picture. While above 7.250-2.225, view remains bullish.

Aussie (0.6272) continues to trade below its resistance around 0.6300-0.6350 region and unless a decisive break past it is seen, range of 0.63-0.61 is likely to hold and a fall within the range can be witnessed as well.

BOE went ahead with the 25-bps rate cut as widely expected. This led Pound (1.2436) to fell from the level of 1.25 itself. While the resistance at 1.26 holds, a range of 1.26-1.23 is likely to hold for a while.

USDINR (87.53) extended the rise to the level of 87.5875. While above 87.50, view remains bullish towards 88 in the near term. Watch out for the RBI MPC meeting scheduled today for better clarity.

The US Treasury yields are hovering above their key intermediate support. They have to sustain above this support and see a strong bounce in the coming days in order to keep our bullish view intact. Else the view will go wrong, and a deeper fall is possible. The US NFP and the Unemployment rate data release today is important to watch. The German yields remain lower. View is bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI is inching down within its range. We expect the range to remain intact for some time. A bullish breakout of this range is likely going forward. The RBI meeting outcome today will need a close watch. Market is expecting a 25-bps rate cut from the RBI today.

The US 10Yr (4.43%) and 30Yr (4.63%) yields remain lower but stable. They have to sustain above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) in order to keep the chances alive of seeing a rise back to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr). Else a deeper fall to 4.3% (10Yr), 4.5% (30Yr) and even lower can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.37%) and the 30Yr (2.61%) yields remain lower. View remains bearish for the 10Yr to fall to 2.2% while below 2.4%. The 30Yr can fall to 2.4% on a break below 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6562%) is inching down within the 6.6%-6.7250% range. We expect to see a bullish breakout of this range above 6.7250% and a rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually in the coming weeks.

The Dow Jones closed slightly lower, with key resistance at 45100. A sustained break above this level could extend the rally to 45400-45800. The DAX reached our projected target of 21900 and could now test 22000. Monitoring price action around this level will provide further directional clarity. The Nifty is declining towards 23500; if this support holds, a rise towards 24000 is possible. However, a break below 23500 could push the index lower to 23300. The Nikkei remains below 39000; while it sustains below this level, a decline towards 38500-38000 is likely. The Shanghai Index has moved above 3270 and is now approaching a key resistance level at 3300.

The Dow (44747.63, -0.28%) stays near the upper end of the 44000-45100 range. A break above 45100 is needed to take the Dow up to 45400 or even 45800. We will have to wait and watch.

DAX (21902.42, +1.47%) has risen to 21900 much faster than expected. 22000 can be tested now. The price action after that will need a close watch to see if the index is extending the rise or falling back.

Nifty (23603.35, -0.25%) is coming down and can test 23500-23450. It has to rise back from 23500-23450 in order to go back up to 23800. That will keep alive the chances of seeing 24000. Else, the Nifty can fall to 23300 and lower.

Nikkei (38893.60, -0.44%) within the range of 38000-40000, it trades below 39000. While it remains below 39000, the index could decline towards 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3294.3294, +0.69%) has risen past the resistance of 3270 and is rising to test the key resistance near 3300. If the resistance remains firm, it can push the index down to 3250-3200. A sustained rise past the resistance would take the index higher towards 3400 and higher.

Crude prices appear bearish in the near term. Gold may fall towards $ 2850-$ 2800, while Silver could rise towards $ 33.5 in the coming sessions. Copper is likely to range between $ 4.5/$ 4.6 and $ 4.4. Natural Gas may test $ 3.5-$ 3.6 before turning bearish towards $ 3.0-$ 2.8.

Brent ($ 74.26) and WTI ($ 70.57) continue to decline, with further drops expected towards $ 74-$ 73 and $ 70-$ 69 in the near term.

Gold ($ 2876.10) has slightly fallen, with resistance at $ 2900 holding strong for now. As long as it remains below this level, we can expect a corrective decline to $ 2850-$ 2800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 32.85) has dipped slightly, but our outlook remains intact, with a potential rise towards $ 33.5 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.4495) tested its immediate trend resistance near $ 4.50 before pulling back slightly. While this resistance holds, the price is likely to range between $ 4.5/$ 4.6 and $ 4.4 for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3950) is rising as anticipated. It may reach $ 3.5-$ 3.6 in the near term before a decline towards $ 3.0-$ 2.8 occurs.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 6.75%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 165K … Expected 154K … Previous 256K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.1% … Previous 4.1%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.4 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.29

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 26.5K … Previous 90.9K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 AU Trade Balance
… Exp – … Expected 6.52 … Previous 6.79 …Actual 5.09

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
… Exp 0.2% … Expected -0.1% … Previous 0.0% …Actual -0.2%

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 4.50% … Previous 4.75%

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
… Exp – … Expected 0-8-1 Previous 0-3-6