Dollar Index has risen past 108 after the news came out that Trump was set to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. While above 107.70/50, rise can get extended towards 109 as well. Euro is headed towards the immediate support around 1.0300-1.0250. EURINR is falling within its broad range of 91-89. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising as expected and can head towards 153/54 and 160 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can remain ranged within 0.63-0.61 and 1.26-1.23 respectively in the near term. USDCNY on a strong break past 7.30, can test 7.35 on the upside. USDINR above 87.50, can rise towards 88 in the near term.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he was set to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. As a result, Dollar Index (108.420) rose to the current levels. While it sustains above immediate support around 107.70/50 region, can extend the rise to 109 or even higher. Only a break below 107 can be bearish for the index.

EURUSD (1.0301) has been coming off on Dollar strength. An immediate support is coming between 1.0300-1.0250 region, need to see whether it holds or extends the fall further to 1.02. Watch price action closely around current levels.

EURINR (90.6247) is falling within its range of 91-89 and a break below 90 can initiate a fall towards the lower end of its range. Overall, the range can hold for now.

EURJPY (156.73) had slipped to the low of 155.67 before bouncing back higher. For now, the support around 156-155 region is holding well and there could be a scope to see a rise back towards 160 in the coming sessions.

Dollar-Yen (152.12) limited the fall to 150.929 and started rising back. While above 150, we retain our view of pair rising back again towards 153-154 soon.

USDCNY (7.3072) as expected tested our initial target of 7.30. Now, a decisive break past 7.30 will be needed to bring 7.35 into picture. While above 7.250-2.225, view remains bullish.

Aussie (0.6259) and Pound (1.2383) are coming off within their respective ranges of 0.63-0.61 and 1.26-1.23. The ranges are likely to hold for a while, until a decisive break is seen.

USDINR (87.9530) on the NDF is trading near our mentioned target of 88. Onshore markets can witness a higher opening and while above 87.50, a rise to 88 can happen.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply on Friday after the jobs data release. The US Unemployment rate fell to 4% in January from 4.1% in December. This could leave the Fed to keep the rates unchanged for some more time. That in turn gave a push for the yields to go up. The supports have held very well on the yields. A further rise from here can take the yields further higher. It will also reduce the danger of seeing a deeper fall that we had cautioned on Friday. The German yields remain lower and stable. The view remains bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range after the RBI meeting on Friday. The RBI cut the repo rates by 25-bps to 6.25% as expected. The sideways range on the 10Yr GoI is intact for now. Eventually we expect the yield to make a bullish breakout of the range.

The US 10Yr (4.49%) and 30Yr (4.69%) yields have risen sharply. The support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) seems to be holding well for now. A further rise from here can take them up to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr). It will then negate the danger of the fall to 4.3% (10Yr), 4.5% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.37%) and the 30Yr (2.61%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. The 10Yr can fall to 2.2% while below 2.4%. The 30Yr on the other hand can fall to 2.4% on a break below 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7043%) has risen back sharply within its 6.6%-6.7250% range. We retain out bullish bias to see a breakout above 6.7250% and a rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones has declined within the 45000-44000 range, potentially forming a double top. A break below 44000 would confirm the pattern, opening downside towards 43000. DAX dropped below 21800, failing to breach 22000, which would further weaken towards 21000. Nifty fell as expected and is now approaching support at 23400-23300. A rebound from this zone could take it back toward 23800. Nikkei remains below 39000.While under this level, a decline to 38500-38000 is possible. Shanghai has moved above 3300 and continues to rise, facing resistance at 3320. A break above this level could extend gains toward 3350-3400.

The Dow (44303.40, -0.99%) has come down sharply. The 44000-45100 range is intact. There is a danger of a double-top formation on the chart. A break below 44000 will confirm it and drag the Dow to 43000 and lower. Need to be careful.

DAX (21787, -0.53%) has come down sharply. Failure to breach 22000 can take the index down to 21000. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (23559.95, -0.18%) fell to 23450 as expected on Friday. Key support is in the 23400-23300 region. While above 23300 a rise back to 23800-24000 can still be possible. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (38741.91 -0.10%) within the range of 38000-40000, it trades lower and below 39000. Further, while below 39000, the index could decline towards 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3311.1341, +0.24%) trades above 3300, but hovers below the resistance near 3320. A breach of this resistance would take the index higher to 3350-3400. Else, the index could come down to 3270-3250.

Crude prices could rise but face rejection from near term resistances to see a fall back in the next few sessions. Gold could fall from crucial resistance and head towards $ 2850-$ 2800, while Silver could range between $ 33.50-31.90 in the coming sessions. Copper needs to extend its rise above $ 4.6 to head towards 4.7/4.8 else can fall back below 4.6 to fall towards $ 4.5/4.4 soon. Watch price action at 4.6. Natural Gas may test $ 3.5-$ 3.6 before turning bearish towards $ 3.4-$ 3.2/3.00

Brent ($ 75.14) has paused near $ 74 and moved up while WTI ($ 71.46) has also risen slightly from 70.56. Upside is likely to be limited to 77 (Brent) and 73 (WTI) in the near term with possible fall towards support at 73 and 69 respectively to be seen soon.

Gold ($ 2898.10) could face strong resistance in the $ 2910-2930 region in the next few sessions which could produce a decline to $ 2850-$ 2800 in the coming sessions. A near-term range of $ 2930-2830 can be possible for the next few sessions.

Silver ($ 32.29) has interim support just below 32 which if holds can keep the price ranged between 31.90-33 for some time. A break below 31.90 will be needed for silver to decline towards 31.50 or lower and indicate near-term bearishness.

Copper ($ 4.5955) has risen well in the last few sessions but need to sustain to extend towards $ 4.7/4.8. Failure to hold to current gains can pull it back towards $ 4.6-4.4 region. Watch price action today to see if the price is able to sustain and move above $ 4.6

Natural Gas ($ 3.4110) could rise to face some resistance near 3.5-3.6 region before declining back towards 3.4-3.2 or lower. A broad range of 3.6-3.2/3.00 can hold for the next few weeks.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY
—————
4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 6.50% … Actual 6.25%%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.50%

13:30 19:00 US NFP
… Exp 165K … Expected 154K … Previous 307K … Actual 143K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
… Exp – … Expected 4.1% … Previous 4.1% … Actual 4.0%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
… Exp 0.4 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3 … Actual 0.5

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 0.3% … Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 26.5K … Previous 90.9K … Actual 76.0K