Dollar Index is nearing the support around 107.70/50, but while it holds index can attempt to bounce back towards previous levels. Euro if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise to 1.0400-1.0450 as well. EURINR can continue to trade within its broad range of 89-91. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising towards 154 and 160 respectively. AUDUSD and Pound can remain ranged within 0.6150-0.6350 and 1.23-1.26 respectively in the near term. USDCNY on a strong break past 7.30, can test 7.35 on the upside. USDINR tested 86.62 on the downside yesterday. Deeper support at 86.50; above which there could be some scope to see a rise back towards 87. IN CPI, IN IIP & US CPI are the data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.969) started coming down from the high of 108.463 as the markets started preparing for the US CPI today. This release might provide further guidance on the direction of interest rates. Still while above 107.70/50, Index can again bounce back towards 108.50-109.00. Only a break below 107 can be bearish for the index.

EURUSD (1.0367) was expected to test the support around 1.0250 but it rose from the level of 1.0291 itself. It can extend its rise towards 1.04 or even 1.0450 while it sustains above current levels. Overall, downside can be limited to 1.0300-1.0250 max.

EURINR (90.1535) yesterday witnessed a low of 89.2646 before rising a bit from there. Overall, broad range of 89-91 can hold for now.

EURJPY (159.05) is rising as expected and can soon test 160 on the upside. Thereafter, if the rise sustains, there is further room to even test 162 as well. Overall, view remains bullish above 156-155.

Dollar-Yen (153.49) can soon test our target of 154. Upon testing, whether the resistance holds, and pair falls back or rises past it will have to be seen.

USDCNY (7.3071) is slowly inching up higher. Our target of 7.25 remains alive for now. While above 7.250-2.225, view remains bullish.

Aussie (0.6307) has risen past 0.63 and if sustained, can test 0.6350. Therein a broad range of 0.6350-0.6150 can hold for a while. Pound (1.2453) after witnessing a low of 1.2332 is also rising higher within its range of 1.23-1.26.

USDINR (86.6270) was expected to fall within the range of 88.00-86.95 but in actual the fall exceeded further to the low of 86.62. Now, a deeper support is coming at 86.50, above which it could attempt to rise back towards 87.

The US Treasury yields are getting a good follow-through rise. The yields can move up further from here. The US CPI data release today is important to watch. A higher CPI number will push the yields higher. The US Headline CPI is currently at 2.9% (YoY) and 0.39% (MoM). The German yields have risen sharply contrary to our expectation. A further rise from here will negate our bearish view and take the yields higher. The 10Yr GoI has come down and is retaining its sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.53%) and 30Yr (4.73%) yields continue to move up. Our view of seeing a rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) remains intact. The yields may have to fall below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) to come under pressure again.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.69%) yields have risen back sharply contrary to our expectation. A further rise from here will negate our bearish view of seeing a fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr). That will take them up to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.6983%) has come down. That keeps the 6.6%-6.7250% range intact. A fall with the range looks likely now. But the broader bias is bullish to see a breakout above 6.7250% and a rise to 6.8%-6.85% eventually.

The Dow Jones has moved up, keeping the range of 44000-45100 intact; stay alert for a break below 44000. DAX has risen above 22000. A decisive rise past 22100 would potentially extend the rally to 23000. Nifty has come down to 23000. While below 23400, it can fall towards 22800-22500 before seeing a reversal. Nikkei initially rose to 39100, failed to sustain higher, and currently trades below 39000. While below 39000, it could come down to 38500-38000. Shanghai has risen above the resistance of 3320 and could extend the gains towards 3350-3400.

The Dow (44593.65, +0.28%) is attempting to move up. For now the 44000-45100 range is intact. But need to be cautious, as a fall below 44000 will indicate a double top formation. That will drag the Dow down to 43000 and lower.

DAX (22037.83, +0.58%) has risen above 22000. A sustained rise above 22100 will be bullish to see 23000 on the upside in the coming weeks.

Nifty (23071.80, -1.32%) fell sharply to test 23000. There is room to see 22800-22500 while below 23400. But thereafter the Nifty can reverse higher. 22800-22500 can be a good level to buy.

Nikkei (38870.59, +0.18%) within the range of 38000-40000, below 39000 looks vulnerable to witness a fall towards 38500-38000.

Shanghai (3324.6892, +0.19%) trades above 3320. While it stays above 3320, a rise towards 3350-3400 could extend on the upside.

Crude prices and Metals have dipped after rising sharply in the earlier session. Brent and WTI can face rejection from 77 and 73/74 region from where a dip looks likely while Gold, Silver and Copper have already dipped and could now test 2900-2850, 31.50-31 and 4.5/4.4 respectively before pausing. Natural Gas is rising as expected and could head towards 3.5/3.6 before halting there.

Brent ($ 76.77) and WTI ($ 73.05) can face rejection near 77 and 73/74 respectively from where a short corrective dip can be expected.

Gold ($ 2923) has dipped from 2968 seen yesterday, limiting its immediate upside. Now, while below 2960/2950, the price could dip to 2850 before again attempting to rise higher.

Silver ($ 32.38) has also dipped along with a dip in Gold. Watch support at 32 on Silver above which the price can rise back towards 33. Else, a break below 32 can take it down towards 31.50-31.00.

Copper ($ 4.6090) has dipped from a high of 4.715 seen earlier this week. This is likely to be a corrective dip which can extend down to 4.5-4.4 before eventually rising higher in the medium term. Next few sessions could see a dip.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5110) has risen as expected and could be headed towards 3.6 before pausing.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 1.0% … Expected 4.1% … Previous 5.2%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
… Exp 4.95 … Expected 4.69 … Previous 5.22

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.3 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released yesterday.